Howe: A Game-by-Game Prediction of Iowa's Season

[HawkGold]

Iowa has 75 percent of a really good team. Maybe championship type.. In some areas they are woefully suspect depenfing on how the develop.

QB...is hr really championesq?

RB... gdm in msking or D2.

Punter...who plays?

Safety.

5-7 to 12-0 rests there.

If 3 are bad pray for 7 wins. If 2, hope for 8.

1 is bad expect 9.

All are good....10. The top is on how Ferentz the coach s are.

 

[Ree4]

And if we’re looking for trends, the odds are against Iowa winning 10 games or more. It’s occurred twice (’09, ’15) in the last 14 years.
LINK

Why not 17 years? Haha man these boards are rubbing off on you. Good write up, this is as tough of a season to predict as any we've had. I'd like to see a few of these losses flipped of course, but can't disagree with the predictions.

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

Why not 17 years? Haha man these boards are rubbing off on you. Good write up, this is as tough of a season to predict as any we've had. I'd like to see a few of these losses flipped of course, but can't disagree with the predictions.

I’ve seen Iowa beat writers pick ISU in this matchup so many times in recent years despite a nice streak now. I think we should be favored based on that history, and while the State defense is great for Big 12 ball, they would be an average squad in our conference. Picking Iowa State s/u is just a bad bet. That Nebraska pick that late in the season is unconvincing as well. We all know about their depth issues.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

I'm with BF above...you can't pick ISU until they show they can measure up against us up front. Let's face it, their offense was completely non-existent with Montgomery and Butler...our D shut them down and beat them senseless. Now, we don't have a few important pieces (Hooker, Nelson, & Hesse, etc), but you are replacing those guys with Epenesa & Golston at DEs, and good athletes at the CASH. You could argue our defense will be better and it's a believable argument. How can you pick ISU after what you saw last year? Sure their OL is a year older...but so are AJ and Chauncey...and we add some size at DT.

Nebraska hasn't shown they are good enough in the trenches for 3-4 years now...I don't think you catch up in Year 2 of Scott Frost. If it's a typical November day, cold and windy, it just doesn't lean to Nebraska in that type of game. If we are on a roll late in the season...Nebraska doesn't beat us.

 

[hawkinn3]

I predict we lose one non conference game and beat both Michigan and Nebraska, in a typical confounding Iowa season

 

[#1DieHardHawk]

I predict we lose one non conference game and beat both Michigan and Nebraska, in a typical confounding Iowa season

Yep.

We are good for at least one head-scratching loss per season.

 

[CP87]

Yep.

We are good for at least one head-scratching loss per season.

You guys realize that is not unique to Iowa, right? Almost every team loses a game they are favored to win at some point along the way. Over the last 5 years, Iowa is 11th among P5 schools in the country in winning% when they are favored by Vegas (84.4%), and 2 of the programs ahead of them have been favored <20 times (Illinois and Rutgers), whereas the Hawks have been favored 45 times over that span (data).

Clemson has won 95% as a favorite over that span. The next best teams are around 90%. So if you are a program like Iowa that will be favored for 8-10 of your games during the season, there is a good chance you will lose one (if you have a 90% chance to win 10 different games, you only have about a 35% chance of winning all of those in which you are favored).

Now KF did have an unusually poor record as a double-digit favorite from '06-'11 (link). But since then, they have been roughly what you would expect.

I wonder how many of those losses as double-digit favorites have come against NW, who remarkably has been listed as an underdog 66 times over the last 10 years despite winning 44% of their games as dogs outright (no other team that wins at least 40% as a dog has been listed as such more than 40 times). In short, they are underestimated every year, and they beat lots of people they "shouldn't" beat.

 

[RobHowe]

I'm with BF above...you can't pick ISU until they show they can measure up against us up front. Let's face it, their offense was completely non-existent with Montgomery and Butler...our D shut them down and beat them senseless. Now, we don't have a few important pieces (Hooker, Nelson, & Hesse, etc), but you are replacing those guys with Epenesa & Golston at DEs, and good athletes at the CASH. You could argue our defense will be better and it's a believable argument. How can you pick ISU after what you saw last year? Sure their OL is a year older...but so are AJ and Chauncey...and we add some size at DT.

Nebraska hasn't shown they are good enough in the trenches for 3-4 years now...I don't think you catch up in Year 2 of Scott Frost. If it's a typical November day, cold and windy, it just doesn't lean to Nebraska in that type of game. If we are on a roll late in the season...Nebraska doesn't beat us.

You guys should run to the betting windows next week. You’ll get more than a TD at Nebraska and 4.5 at Ames. Bet the farm!

 

[Ben Rumson]

8-4 would be typical Hawkeyes. I'll go with
9-3 with the usual
2 could ofs
1 shouldn't have being the losses.

I know better after reading some sporting articles with the D having potential to be top 5 or better in country and an experienced QB who needs a little more precision for me to get overly zealous until I see the first couple games . I'll take a loss to Pee state but please do not lose to clownville, Nw or the dillusional cornfuskers.

 

[karras]

The Hawkeyes had an adjusted turnover margin of 16 last season, which was second nationally. That likely will be hard to repeat so they will need to make up for it in other areas.

Too lazy to look it up but I don't think it was just last season. My gut says since 2015 our ability to intercept the football has lead to a significant + turnover ratio. IIRC 2 of the last 4 years we have either lead the nation in interceptions or been near the top.

 

[CP87]

Too lazy to look it up but I don't think it was just last season. My gut says since 2015 our ability to intercept the football has lead to a significant + turnover ratio. IIRC 2 of the last 4 years we have either lead the nation in interceptions or been near the top.

Iowa has led the nation in interceptions that last 2 years. Some say, "But Amani Hooker is gone!" True, but before last year people were saying, "But Josh Jackson is gone!" And you know what, heading into last year, no one was pumping up Josh Jackson, most had their hopes pinned on Manny Rugamba.

The Hawks just crank out DBs, and they are as loaded now as they have ever been. As long as the Hawks have a good pash rush (which they clearly do this year), you can pretty much pencil them in for 15-20 interceptions.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

This is one of the most wide open falls we've seen in the B1G West. I defy anybody to predict the final finish.

I could see IOWA at 10-2. I could just as easily see us at 7-5. There are no gimme games in conference...even Illinois will be improved..

 

[#1DieHardHawk]

You guys realize that is not unique to Iowa, right? Almost every team loses a game they are favored to win at some point along the way. Over the last 5 years, Iowa is 11th among P5 schools in the country in winning% when they are favored by Vegas (84.4%), and 2 of the programs ahead of them have been favored <20 times (Illinois and Rutgers), whereas the Hawks have been favored 45 times over that span (data).

Clemson has won 95% as a favorite over that span. The next best teams are around 90%. So if you are a program like Iowa that will be favored for 8-10 of your games during the season, there is a good chance you will lose one (if you have a 90% chance to win 10 different games, you only have about a 35% chance of winning all of those in which you are favored).

Now KF did have an unusually poor record as a double-digit favorite from '06-'11 (link). But since then, they have been roughly what you would expect.

I wonder how many of those losses as double-digit favorites have come against NW, who remarkably has been listed as an underdog 66 times over the last 10 years despite winning 44% of their games as dogs outright (no other team that wins at least 40% as a dog has been listed as such more than 40 times). In short, they are underestimated every year, and they beat lots of people they "shouldn't" beat.

Absolutely.

It's not exclusive to Iowa. Just ask Michigan.

But, I think most long-term Iowa fans would agree that we seem to be more consistent in that area than most. Looking at percentage of wins when favored is a little deceptive. I'm talking more about games where we should be winning by 14-21 points, then either lose or barely pull it out (such as the miracle against UNI).

Why is that? Hard to say. My thought has always been that Kirk views OOC games more like an NFL coach views the preseason. He sees them as part of the developmental process for that particular season, as opposed to many college coaches that see them as a way to showcase the dominance of their teams. To his credit, Iowa has a reputation for peaking in November, so that philosophy may not be all bad, but, nevertheless, it's frustrating when we lay an egg against a vastly inferior opponent (and, that seems to occur almost every season).

 

[hawkinn3]

You guys should run to the betting windows next week. You’ll get more than a TD at Nebraska and 4.5 at Ames. Bet the farm!

I’ll be in Vegas the weekend of the ISU game and if the line is still 4.5 I will be betting for sure. I suspect it gets to 3 by then.

 

[seepig]

Where did you find this data (I looked, but couldn't find a site that provided it)?

Certain aspects of turnovers (forcing interceptions, not throwing interceptions, forcing fumbles, not fumbling) seem to be repeatable. Other aspects (like recovering a fumble once it hits the ground), seem to be fairly random.

An Adjusted turnover margin stat typically tries to take the randomness out of turnovers by, for instance, assuming that that a team would recover 50% of the fumbles that hit the ground during the game.

Iowa had a turnover margin of +9 last year (gained 27, coughed up 18). Of the 25 fumbles that hit the ground during their games, they recovered 12. So how do they get from the actual turnover margin of +9 to an adjusted margin of +16? Furthermore, if the actual margin is LESS THAN the adjusted margin, that means they were unlucky in a given season, so we could very well believe the next season would be better (a regression to the mean). Please correct me if I am misunderstanding something here.

If we just look at raw TO margin, the Hawks are good more often than not:

2018: +9 (16th in nation)
2017: +7 (26th in nation)
2016: +6 (28th in nation)
2015: +11 (11th in nation)
2014: -6 (105th in nation)
2013: -1 (69th in nation)
2012: +12 (14th in nation)
2011: +1 (49th in nation)
2010: +13 (7th in nation)
2009: +2 (51st in nation)

'13/'14 are the Ruddock years, both of which were characterized by a high # of TOs lost (interceptions in '13, fumbles in '14), and relatively low number generated (especially in '14).

2011 is JVB's first season, and the issue was primarily with low # of takeaways generated.

2009 of course had Pick-6 Rick (99th worst in the country at giving the ball away).

Of the least 10 seasons, the Hawks have been in the top 20% in raw TO margin 6 times (3 times in the middle of the pack, once really bad; top 20% in the nation for the last 4 years in a row).

When they have had a senior QB (2010, 2012, 2016), they have been 7th, 14th, and 28th in the nation.

The Hawks have a fearsome pass rush, Phil Parker and his talented defensive backfield, and good pass protection.

I doubt the Hawks fall way short of that +9 raw number.

This is exactly why Phil Parker is invaluable

 

[DDThompson]

Miami (Ohio) at Iowa, Aug. 31
The Hawkeyes should physically dominate both sides of the ball and should win by a name-the-score-get-your-seconds-a-full-fourth-quarter action ... but ... it'll probably be 21-6 with 8 to play and a FG puts it to a 3-score game which is enough to put backups in with 5 to play who get a TD by Mansell.

You know it. I know it.
Iowa 31, Miami 6


Rutgers at Iowa, 11 a.m. CT, Sept. 7
Rob's right. Rutgers in September feels like a non-conference game. Mostly because it's Rutgers and not because it's September. This point in the season the Knights will still have hope and play hard for their coach in his home-state. It should not be a close game; it will be closer than it should be.

You know it. I know it.
Iowa 31, Rutgers 13


Iowa at Iowa State, 3 p.m. CT, Sept. 14
Just a wild guess, but I'm betting this is back to Super Bowl status for the Iowa State Campbells. I'm guessing some Iowa seniors really, really want a sweep. I'm also guessing ISU runs their 3-3 or 3-4 defense and Iowa decides to zone block then ... sigh.

These really aren't guesses. You know it. I know it.

It's a toss-up between Stanley and the QB Witchdoctor. Nate gets a pin in his right arm at the wrong time.
Iowa State 44, Iowa 41 (3OT)


Middle Tennessee State at Iowa, TBD, Sept. 28
Bye a week before. At Michigan a week later. I don't like it. The
The defense won't be focused. Hawkeye fans will meltdown over a leaky defense and wail about a blowout coming in Ann Arbor.

Especially after Michigan beats MTSU 63-7 in week one. You know it. I know it.
Iowa 42, MTSU 28


Iowa at Michigan, 11 a.m. CT, Oct. 5
Yes, Iowa is their Homecoming game but the schedule doesn't give the Wolves any freedom. I went conspiracy that Michigan wanted revenge from the '16 game. It's not that. After this game, Michigan will not have a Big10 home game until November 16 against in-state rival MSU. That's not a game you make for Homecoming.

Will Harbaugh be tempted to go trench warfare against Iowa. Yes. Will he? No. Michigan is at home. Iowa's defense struggles again.
Michigan 35, Iowa 21



Penn State at Iowa, TBD, Oct. 12
After a disappointing outcome the week before, Iowa looks sharper.
Steve Deace notes the Bland Helmets winning percentage without arguably their best QB-RB-OC in history and it's kinda *meh white/blue* by PSU standards. Time for the team to make KF tear up (not tear it up) with a win over Penn State.

Iowa's offense goes their back-to-rush thing and the defense goes beast mode allowing a late TD.
Iowa 17, Penn State 10



Purdue at Iowa, 11 a.m. CT, Oct. 19
The red circle games begin for real. As much as I want to beat the historical powerhouses of Michigan and PSU from the East -- it's not the 70s anymore. It's all about winning your division games. And these next few divisional games should have two red circles around them because of the recent futility Kirk & Company have had.

Brohm is a hype-less Fleck & Frost that has a proven playmaker. Iowa doesn't do well against playmakers. This will be red-circled next year for the Hawks. This game costs us the division title and it's at Kinnick.
*insert end-of-season angry face here*
Purdue 21 Iowa 20


Iowa at Northwestern, 11 a.m. CT, Oct. 26
While I can respect Pat Fitzgerald, Iowa's 5-8 record against him is not acceptable. I like the place on the schedule and a 3-game losing streak to any team in the Big10 better be circled.

Time for a trench warfare game. I want this one.
Iowa 21, Northwestern 13


Iowa at Wisconsin, TBD, Nov. 3, TBD
Another 3-game losing streak, divisional and rivarly game, red-circled game. I can see Badgers getting bashed by the Buckeyes two weeks earlier, re-focusing against Iowa and then losing their next three after Iowa (watch -- it'll happen) It's our thing for stuff like that to happen. Brian thinks trench warfare worked before, it'll work again. Not this game it won't.

You know it. I know it.
Wisconsin 20, Iowa 17


Minnesota at Iowa, TBD, Nov. 16
Minnesota comes into the game 8-1 with hopes of a division championship while Iowa still has hopes that if they win out and someone knocks off Purdue & Wisconsin & NW, then we are in.

So, of course, Iowa speed boats the Flecking Canoes.
Iowa 52, Minnesota 17


Illinois at Iowa, TBD, Nov. 23
From speed boating the Fleckers to the "No-fightin'-but-Love-n-you" Illini.
The program that is barely a speed bump.

Fans hopes are raised higher. You know it. I know it.
Iowa 48, Illinois 10


Iowa at Nebraska, 1:30 p.m. CT, Nov. 29
Martinez will be dinged up, won't be mobile enough to stay away from AJE's horn-o-plenty grabbing paws.
Winter is coming. Duh. It's the northern midwest. This season is a mild frost for Husker fans.

You know it. I know it. Nebraska fans don't know it.
Iowa 24 Nebraska 14



8-4

but
2 of these 3 games will be reversed: ISU, Purdue, Wisconsin
and
2 of these 3 games will be reversed: NW, PSU, Nebby

You know it. I know it.

 

[trj]

Absolutely.

It's not exclusive to Iowa. Just ask Michigan.

But, I think most long-term Iowa fans would agree that we seem to be more consistent in that area than most. Looking at percentage of wins when favored is a little deceptive. I'm talking more about games where we should be winning by 14-21 points, then either lose or barely pull it out (such as the miracle against UNI).

Why is that? Hard to say. My thought has always been that Kirk views OOC games more like an NFL coach views the preseason. He sees them as part of the developmental process for that particular season, as opposed to many college coaches that see them as a way to showcase the dominance of their teams. To his credit, Iowa has a reputation for peaking in November, so that philosophy may not be all bad, but, nevertheless, it's frustrating when we lay an egg against a vastly inferior opponent (and, that seems to occur almost every season).

06-11 I believe that was certainly true as the data @CP87 researched would support. Since then I think he has adjusted, but those games where Iowa was a double digit favorite succumbed to his overall philosophy on winning football games. Which he has tweaked, the premise however is still pretty much the same.

 

[NCHawker]

As painful as it is to see, 9-3 is possible this season. However right now it's early October and teams change and grow during the year. I won't be surprised to see a loss happen that we did not see coming (Minnesota) and a thud that echos (nebraska) and that is 7-5. If that happens, there will be a lot of hollering. It could be 9-3 and people are still yelling, "beat somebody".

It could be 9-3 with Iowa upsetting PSU or Wisconsin and a loss somewhere else.

 

[seepig]

As painful as it is to see, 9-3 is possible this season. However right now it's early October and teams change and grow during the year. I won't be surprised to see a loss happen that we did not see coming (Minnesota) and a thud that echos (nebraska) and that is 7-5. If that happens, there will be a lot of hollering. It could be 9-3 and people are still yelling, "beat somebody".

It could be 9-3 with Iowa upsetting PSU or Wisconsin and a loss somewhere else.

We can holler all we like The Barta nepotism, bad execution AD department is alive and well. Kirk's safe, BF is comfy, which means Polasheck is comfy, and so on and so on. EVERY game we watch BF and Kirk F up I just enjoy watching Phil's defense keep us in games. Bailing wire in the defensive backfield and in the DL with little depth and we are 5 games in and Phil's D has been pretty damn good. Where's Brian going to be.....? He'll be where we always are 100+ ranked on total O and NO ability to run against good front lines and Nate STanley who doesn't have a clue what grounding is will still be making bad decisions at key moments. He's a stat stuffer and had 2 meaningful games in 4 years.