How many Big 10 teams?

S

SwirlinLingerie

Well-Known Member
I don't know why, but I started thinking of scenarios involving Iowa.

I'm out here in WA state, and the Huskies are suddenly on the playoff fringe, too.

They are 6-2, and have Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA. A decent chance they are 9-2 going into their last game, which is hosting Oregon. Historically, UW over-performs in that rivalry game when in Seattle.

So say the Hawks and Huskies are both 10-2 with wins over Oregon. Both get in as the BIG's third and fourth teams?

Add this into the mix. Say that same thing happens. And also that Michigan takes care of business before Ohio State, and then beats the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor (never, ever out of the realm of possibility).

So say you'd have 12-0 Indiana, 11-1 Ohio State, 10-2 Michigan (win over OSU), 10-2 Iowa, and 10-2 Washington.

Would it be Indiana vs. Michigan in the championship game? If Michigan gets beat decisively, are they out?

It's fun only having a second loss on October 28th, no Ohio State still on the schedule, and a bye week to scramble your brain on all these possibilities.

Besides Iowa winning out, seems like Ohio State burying Michigan in Ann Arbor would be one of the most clear cut scenarios to root for (or maybe the Wolverines can just take a dump at Northwestern for us).
 


These perfect scenarios dreamt up midseason never come to pass. Too many variables and there are always upsets. The Big 10 will get between 2-4 teams in. My guess is the Top 3 make it. All of the teams above could make it, but teams like Iowa and Washington and likely Michigan need to win out.
 


If Iowa wins out...

Iowa will have played 3/4 of last year's B1G CFP teams (granted, all at home)

And beaten 2/3...and if the QB isn't injured late in the 4th quarter, we'd have beaten Indy (national commenators have mentioned this).

And will have won two tough road games (@ USC and Nebraska).
Pretty formidable slate.

You'd think SoS would count in Iowa's favor.
Plus, we will be a very hot team.

All signs point to CFP at that point.
 






Fryowa said:
And need help from other teams.
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If Iowa wins out, I would bet my mortgage they are in the playoffs. They would be no worse than third place in one of the two power conferences. I guess in the one in a million chance that the scenario where Washington and Michigan both win out, there might be some handwringing on taking 5 Big Ten Schools. Maybe Iowa gets squeezed out. But, that is not going to happen. A 10-2 Iowa team with two good losses and wins over PSU, Oregon, USC, Minny, and Nebraska gets in.
 






I said at 3-2 (after the Indiana loss), all the big goals were likely off the table, and that will allow Iowa to play loose and rack up some fun wins. All of a sudden, it is looking like the anxiety of playoff implications could be rearing its head.

I hope Iowa can handle that. The 2015 team is a great example of an Iowa team that met the moment game after game (all the way until 4th and goal vs. MSU). But many teams struggle with that pressure. I think so much comes down to the QB, so let's hope MG becomes the 2nd coming of CJB over this next month or so!

Frankly, if there is a recent game that gives me hope, it is PSU (more so than the Minny and Wisky wipeouts). We had no business winning that game with all of the mistakes, and yet we still got the job done. It is the sort of win that gives a team that feeling of invincibility that is so critical to a special season.
 




NorthKCHawk said:
If Iowa wins out, I would bet my mortgage they are in the playoffs. They would be no worse than third place in one of the two power conferences. I guess in the one in a million chance that the scenario where Washington and Michigan both win out, there might be some handwringing on taking 5 Big Ten Schools. Maybe Iowa gets squeezed out. But, that is not going to happen. A 10-2 Iowa team with two good losses and wins over PSU, Oregon, USC, Minny, and Nebraska gets in.
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I mean all these scenarios are just for fun during a bye week, but my point is that it's not exactly a one in a million chance for Washington or Michigan to hit 10 wins.

UW will be favored in their next three games and then will likely be only a very slight underdog against Oregon in Seattle, a rivalry that's extremely competitive. UW has won 3 of the last 4, and all 3 times Oregon came into the game as a top 10 team. They have an easier path to the playoffs than Iowa.

Michigan will be favored in their next three games and hosts Ohio State - we all know crazy shit happens in this rivalry, and lately it's all been breaking the right way for Michigan.
 




SwirlinLingerie said:
I don't know why, but I started thinking of scenarios involving Iowa.

I'm out here in WA state, and the Huskies are suddenly on the playoff fringe, too.

They are 6-2, and have Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA. A decent chance they are 9-2 going into their last game, which is hosting Oregon. Historically, UW over-performs in that rivalry game when in Seattle.

So say the Hawks and Huskies are both 10-2 with wins over Oregon. Both get in as the BIG's third and fourth teams?

Add this into the mix. Say that same thing happens. And also that Michigan takes care of business before Ohio State, and then beats the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor (never, ever out of the realm of possibility).

So say you'd have 12-0 Indiana, 11-1 Ohio State, 10-2 Michigan (win over OSU), 10-2 Iowa, and 10-2 Washington.

Would it be Indiana vs. Michigan in the championship game? If Michigan gets beat decisively, are they out?

It's fun only having a second loss on October 28th, no Ohio State still on the schedule, and a bye week to scramble your brain on all these possibilities.

Besides Iowa winning out, seems like Ohio State burying Michigan in Ann Arbor would be one of the most clear cut scenarios to root for (or maybe the Wolverines can just take a dump at Northwestern for us).
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Yes, Michigan WOULD be in the BTen championship vs Indiana, and if they lose they'd have 3 losses and be out of the picture. Of the remaining teams that are now 6-2, I agree that Washington has the best shot at running the table.
 




Grady said:
Yes, Michigan WOULD be in the BTen championship vs Indiana, and if they lose they'd have 3 losses and be out of the picture. Of the remaining teams that are now 6-2, I agree that Washington has the best shot at running the table.
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SwirlinLingerie said:
Doesn't 8-1 Michigan get into the conference championship game over 8-1 Ohio State, since they would have beat them head to head? Michigan's other loss is non-con.
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Correct. I had their overall record in my head instead of their conference record for some reason. Mistake by me.
 


And for a minute can we just enjoy the fact that Matty Campbell has yet again stubbed his toe in the CFP parking lot, then tripped on the curb walking up to the door, and finally slipped on the ice and landed flat on his back staring up at the sky like Marv from Home Alone?
 


hawkdrummer1 said:
10-2 will get us in. Nothing less.
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I think so too. I don't see how they can keep out a 10-2 Iowa team our resume being what it'd be if that happens.

9-3 won't cut it though there's gonna be lots of 9-3 teams and we won't be on the short list of favs to get elevated up to that. Even if our next loss is by 1 pt to Oregon I don't think 9-3 will get us in. Hell the AP probably wouldn't have us in top 25 if that happens either. Our margin for error is totally gone
 


Fryowa said:
And for a minute can we just enjoy the fact that Matty Campbell has yet again stubbed his toe in the CFP parking lot, then tripped on the curb walking up to the door, and finally slipped on the ice and landed flat on his back staring up at the sky like Marv from Home Alone?
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I'm well aware that ISU shitting the bed down the stretch doesn't help our resume one bit... But IDC I revel in ISUs misery. I'm rooting for them to totally tailspin the rest of the way.
 


Hawkfnntn said:
I'm well aware that ISU shitting the bed down the stretch doesn't help our resume one bit... But IDC I revel in ISUs misery. I'm rooting for them to totally tailspin the rest of the way.
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Yeah if it gets to the point where the deciding factor of Iowa getting in the playoffs comes down to the ISU loss, they didn't deserve to be there anyway.

I mean let's be real, we ain't gettin in anyway so it's less work to just accept it now rather than be mad later.
 


Fryowa said:
Yeah if it gets to the point where the deciding factor of Iowa getting in the playoffs comes down to the ISU loss, they didn't deserve to be there anyway.

I mean let's be real, we ain't gettin in anyway so it's less work to just accept it now rather than be mad later.
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Some are placing way too much emphasis on how the good team you lost to is. BEAT THEM and it's a non-issue. The ISU game has very little bearing on Iowa's playoff chances.

We have to win out which would give us wins against Oregon and USC. That'll get the Hawks in
 
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