Hoops Schedule: Iowa Gets GREAT Big 10 Draw

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
The Big Ten let teams know the Big Ten portion of their upcoming basketball schedules, or at least the teams they will play just once.

The 12 team league has an 18-game schedule and each team has four league opponents they play just once and the other seven they play twice.

If preseason Big Ten predictions hold serve related to expectations, Iowa got about as good a draw as they could have possibly hoped for.

The league favorite for the 2011-2012 season will be Ohio State; Iowa plays them just once. Michigan is as team that returns a lot of talent, including Tim Hardaway Jr. Iowa plays the Wolverines just once. Michigan State is a perennial powerhouse and will likely rebound from their disappointing 2010-2011 season; Iowa plays them just once next year. Illinois had a disappointing season last year, related to their fan expectations, but they have loads of young talent on that team; Iowa plays them just once.

All four of those programs made the NCAA tournament last year and each is expected to make the 2012 NCAA tournament.

So as I said to start, this is a very fortuitous draw for Iowa....and it brings me back around to something I posted on the message boards back on June 2nd at this link.

Is a 20-win season possible for Iowa in 2011-2012?

At that time, all we had was the non-conference schedule. I think there is a decent chance for Iowa to go 10-3 in the non-conference, and possibly better. They don't leave the state during the non-con, but they do play at Iowa State and UNI. ISU is going to have a post-season team, so that will be a tough out. UNI is not going to be a great team at that point in time and a win in Cedar Falls is a possibility.

Now that we know the Hawks play the four aforementioned teams just one time, each of them likely Top 6 finishers in next year's Big Ten and possibly two or three of the Top Four teams in the league, on paper, perhaps that statement is a little less crazy on this 17th day of June than it was 15 days ago.

If Iowa can sweep its series with Nebraska and Penn State, that's four wins. Split with Indiana, Minnesota and Northwestern, there is seven wins. Purdue loses two huge performers, say you split with them, something Iowa did this past season, there is eight wins. If they could somehow split with Wisconsin, who is always salty and a team Iowa took to overtime this past year in Carver Hawkeye Arena, the Hawks have nine Big Ten wins...something it hasn't done for more than five years. If they go 1-3 against the four teams they play just once (two of those games will be home, two of them on the road and we do not yet know the dates and times for any of these games), there is 10 Big Ten conference wins.

If Iowa would go 10-3 in the out of conference and 10-8 in conference, there's your 20 wins.

Now, I wouldn't bet on that being a ticket to the NCAA tournament because Iowa's out of conference schedule is going to hurt their RPI...and the Big Ten is not going to be as strong this year compared to last, so 10 league wins will not carry the same weight as they did one year ago.

Iowa would likely have to win two games in the Big Ten tournament in order to have a decent bubble team resume, but if they get to 19 or 20 wins, I think you can say the Hawks would stand a very good chance of an NIT bid worst case and possibly hosting a game in that tournament.

If they went 11-2 or 12-1 in the non-conference, something I explained as not entirely far fetched in the linked post above, and post a 10-8 Big Ten record, things would be very, very interesting.

But that's a long way off and there are a lot of new parts to next year's team we need to see in action...however, this is just another reason to be optimistic for the 2011-2012 Iowa basketball season and the hope for a quicker than expected return to relevance.
 
I'd be ecstatic if we swept Neb, IU, and PSU. We're going to find ourselves in a lot of close games next year, just gotta steal a few.
 
This is a great break for Fran and the Iowa program,imo. The 2nd and 3rd years are huge for capitalizing on momentum of a new hire. This schedule will be in place the next two years,with the home game flipped in the second year. This gives Fran a 2 year window to win enough games to win games,fill CHA and impress recruits. By the 4th year...2013-14,we should off and rolling with pretty much all Fran recruits on the roster by then...hopefully Woody,Gesell,Jok,Agau,Meyer,and a couple of top notch out of staters. By then we should be strong enough to live with a tougher slate.


My predicted top half of the Big Ten next year:
OSU,Mich,MSU,Ill,Wis,Purdue...and Iowa with a shot at moving up to 6th. This is a dream schedule for Fran and the Hawks.
Go Hawks!!
 
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This is why PTL is going to be so interesting. Just wish Fran had stepped in to stop what happened to Hubbard. He got the worst possible scenario.

Fran should have made sure he was playing with at least one Hawk. Not basically an entire team of Panthers. Just a horrible, horrible situation. Someone needs to kick that coach in the sack. Oleseni is kind of in the same boat, but at least he gets to work with Bryce.

It will also be interesting to see where Ogelsby fits in within the Hawkeye bench crew. Will be nice for these guys to get to know each other. They will spend a lot of time together.

Basically, we need White and Hubbard to have Mel-like numbers. Should be easy for White, as Matt has no problem playing second fiddle. Hubbard is just going to have to go Kelly Leak, because it makes no sense for his teammates to pass him the ball, set screens, etc. Oleseni needs to show that he can stay on the court and be a decent defensive force for about 10 minutes a game this season. Ogelsby needs to show he can get his shot off with consistency in the B1G. Not really as important as he should be fairly deep on the bench.

But without at least one of the new guys (maybe 2) having Mel-like PTL numbers, I don't see the Hawks getting to 20 wins.
 
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The PTL is organized pick up. I know that sounds like an oxymoron but it's not structured basketball. They aren't working on sets. Hubbard is living with Mel, these guys go over and workout together in the mornings and then play ball together as well. PTL is only two days a week, so there are at least four additional days a week when these guys are working on their games and most likely it's with teammates. I don't think it's horrible that he doesn't have any teammates on his PTL team because the PTL isn't what makes these players improve
 
CAARHawk said:
This is why PTL is going to be so interesting. Just wish Fran had stepped in to stop what happened to Hubbard. He got the worst possible scenario.

Fran should have made sure he was playing with at least one Hawk. Not basically an entire team of Panthers. Just a horrible, horrible situation. Someone needs to kick that coach in the sack. Oleseni is kind of in the same boat, but at least he gets to work with Bryce.

It will also be interesting to see where Ogelsby fits in within the Hawkeye bench crew. Will be nice for these guys to get to know each other. They will spend a lot of time together.

Basically, we need White and Hubbard to have Mel-like numbers. Should be easy for White, as Matt has no problem playing second fiddle. Hubbard is just going to have to go Kelly Leak, because it makes no sense for his teammates to pass him the ball, set screens, etc. Oleseni needs to show that he can stay on the court and be a decent defensive force for about 10 minutes a game this season. Ogelsby needs to show he can get his shot off with consistency in the B1G. Not really as important as he should be fairly deep on the bench.

But without at least one of the new guys (maybe 2) having Mel-like PTL numbers, I don't see the Hawks getting to 20 wins.
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Of all the things to worry about, how someone plays in the PTL is about dead last on my list. It is in no way representative of how they will play in the B10. It's a nice break for the guys to actually play some games and have some fun, but it's basically just pick up games.
 
You are completely wrong that the PTL is no indicator on how guys will play in the B1G. We pretty much went over this with Mel's success and it was proven to be a pretty direct correlation when the season came along.

Now is it a simulation? No. But, there is a correlation. Players that will make a difference at high majors dominate in summer leagues like the PTL.

And I respectfully disagree Jon. Even though Hub has an opportunity to practice with the guys, missing the opportunity to bond with at least one teammate during competitive play, is a HUGE missed opportunity. This is particularly true in Hub's case. The guy has to already feel somewhat out of place and then you stick him on a team of players who are all from the same different program?! That should ease the transition process.

If I was the Iowa coach, that would NEVER happen again.
 
CAARHawk said:
You are completely wrong that the PTL is no indicator on how guys will play in the B1G. We pretty much went over this with Mel's success and it was proven to be a pretty direct correlation when the season came along.

Now is it a simulation? No. But, there is a correlation. Players that will make a difference at high majors dominate in summer leagues like the PTL.

And I respectfully disagree Jon. Even though Hub has an opportunity to practice with the guys, missing the opportunity to bond with at least one teammate during competitive play, is a HUGE missed opportunity. This is particularly true in Hub's case. The guy has to already feel somewhat out of place and then you stick him on a team of players who are all from the same different program?! That should ease the transition process.

If I was the Iowa coach, that would NEVER happen again.
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Duez Henderson is one of the five best players to ever play in the PTL. Darryl Moore might be the all time best.

Neither of those performances ever translated anywhere near that level in Big Ten play
 
CAARHawk said:
You are completely wrong that the PTL is no indicator on how guys will play in the B1G. We pretty much went over this with Mel's success and it was proven to be a pretty direct correlation when the season came along.

Now is it a simulation? No. But, there is a correlation. Players that will make a difference at high majors dominate in summer leagues like the PTL.

And I respectfully disagree Jon. Even though Hub has an opportunity to practice with the guys, missing the opportunity to bond with at least one teammate during competitive play, is a HUGE missed opportunity. This is particularly true in Hub's case. The guy has to already feel somewhat out of place and then you stick him on a team of players who are all from the same different program?! That should ease the transition process.

If I was the Iowa coach, that would NEVER happen again.
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You think the guys dont play ball other than the PTL during the summer? He will get to know his teammates. This is a not a big deal at all.

We are talking about the PTL and you already have it setting back Hubbard because he doesnt get to play pick up basketball with any of his teammates. You are stretching there. I think I might start referring to you as Skip Bayless. You always try and take the most negative, unpopular view on things run with them.
 
JonDMiller said:
Duez Henderson is one of the five best players to ever play in the PTL. Darryl Moore might be the all time best.

Neither of those performances ever translated anywhere near that level in Big Ten play
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Come on Jon. These guys had their PTL success after their college days were over. Neither came in as young collegiate players and dominated.

And BTW: Duez was a pretty darn good player by his senior season at Iowa. In fact, if Iowa had a player like that now, I would be more likely to go with the 20 win scenario.
 
CAARHawk said:
You are completely wrong that the PTL is no indicator on how guys will play in the B1G. We pretty much went over this with Mel's success and it was proven to be a pretty direct correlation when the season came along.

Now is it a simulation? No. But, there is a correlation. Players that will make a difference at high majors dominate in summer leagues like the PTL.

And I respectfully disagree Jon. Even though Hub has an opportunity to practice with the guys, missing the opportunity to bond with at least one teammate during competitive play, is a HUGE missed opportunity. This is particularly true in Hub's case. The guy has to already feel somewhat out of place and then you stick him on a team of players who are all from the same different program?! That should ease the transition process.

If I was the Iowa coach, that would NEVER happen again.
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He's not going to improve by playing in the PTL. Whether he puts up good numbers or not depends on how good of a player he is, this isn't going to change because he's not on a team with another Hawkeye. He is what he is at this point. To think that what PTL team he plays on will effect his ability to succeed in the B10 is one of the dumbest things I've seen on this board.
 
The schedule is a huge plus for Iowa. It might be possible for us to get up to 10 wins in the Big. How huge would that be?

Re: Hubbard in the PTL..he will be just fine and he will get his points. If he is a good teammate (and I think he will be), he will get to see the ball a lot. No worries on Hub in the PTL.
 
Way over your skiis,there Caar. White and Hubbard have to put up Mel-like numbers in PTL or we are in trouble? WTF??? Mel was the MVP of the league,averaging like 35 pts a game...and you expect White to do that? And for Gatens to play second fiddle to him? A senior,who has been MVP of PTL at least twice,vs a non-top 150 true frosh who hit town ten minutes ago? You are destined to be disapointed with White,that is clear. Hubbard probably will put up decent numbers,but just by sheer increase in talented scholly athletes from Iowa playing in the league this year, even Mel would not dominate like he did in a depleted league last year. PTL gives us an indication of raw talent,yes,but it by no means is the final word. Eric May was spectacular in PTL last year,then got off to a good start in the season,got hurt,and fell off.
Enjoy PTL for what it is...a chance to assess raw talent in glorified AAU type games.
Defense is optional.
 
CAARHawk said:
You are completely wrong that the PTL is no indicator on how guys will play in the B1G. We pretty much went over this with Mel's success and it was proven to be a pretty direct correlation when the season came along.

Now is it a simulation? No. But, there is a correlation. Players that will make a difference at high majors dominate in summer leagues like the PTL.

And I respectfully disagree Jon. Even though Hub has an opportunity to practice with the guys, missing the opportunity to bond with at least one teammate during competitive play, is a HUGE missed opportunity. This is particularly true in Hub's case. The guy has to already feel somewhat out of place and then you stick him on a team of players who are all from the same different program?! That should ease the transition process.

If I was the Iowa coach, that would NEVER happen again.
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Hubbard has played with two completely different teams the last two years... don't think that 3-4 weeks is going to make that much difference.
 
Section136 said:
You think the guys dont play ball other than the PTL during the summer? He will get to know his teammates. This is a not a big deal at all.

We are talking about the PTL and you already have it setting back Hubbard because he doesnt get to play pick up basketball with any of his teammates. You are stretching there. I think I might start referring to you as Skip Bayless. You always try and take the most negative, unpopular view on things run with them.
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This.

I lived in Iowa City in the early to the mid 90's and I often saw current players, ex-players, football players, ex-football players, etc. playing in highly spirited, highly competitive pick-up games at the fieldhouse. It has been a really long time since I spent any significant time in Iowa City or been to the fieldhouse so I don't know if the fieldhouse is even open to the public anymore. Not really sure if it is the place to play pick-up games the way it was.

This is not a big deal.

Personally, I have never put a whole lot of stock in the PTL, but that is just me. If it was part of the NBA summer league ......then maybe, a big maybe .
 
Seems to me that David Palmer and Cougill both put up pretty decent PTL numbers. How did that work out in the Big Ten? I seriously doubt that Hubbard is going to suffer as far as his Iowa career goes because he is playing with UNI players in the PTL. CAARHawk makes it sound as though the Panther players are going to conspire to keep the ball away from Hubbard. I highly doubt that will occur. As far as the Big Ten schedule goes, after what Iowa has been stuck with the past few years, this schedule is a godsend. The stars just might be aligning for the Hawks to have a great year.
 
I don't mean conspiring, I just mean that they would naturally have more interest in working with each other than Hub. Don't really know why everyone thinks my position is so outlandish. Do you think he would rather be on a team with at least one other Hawkeye? Do you think Fran might prefer that? Do you think that he is going to be all that interested in bonding with a bunch of guys who will be playing at a different school?

Seriously, it isn't going to ruin his Hawkeye career. That is not what I am saying. I am saying this league should be an opportunity for Hawk players to build relationships on and off the court. Hard to do that when all your future teammates are on another bench.
 
CAARHawk said:
Don't really know why everyone thinks my position is so outlandish.
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My guess they think that because it is. As many have said, performance in the PTL has rarely indicated performance in the Big Ten. The PTL is a very guard oriented game. As long as Hubbard can get his hands on a couple of in bounds passes after a make, he won't have any trouble.
 
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