Honest Question About Winning Out

S

simpsonllp

Well-Known Member
If we win out we'll finish the regular season on a 5-game winning streak at 18-13 overall and 10-8 in conference play. I think we'd have to win 2 games in the B1G tournament to be a lock for the NCAA. That would put us at 20-14 overall (we add a loss too).

What if we did everything above except win only 1 game in B1G Tourney? Would that be enough?
 
In the RPI rankings, Iowa is 138. To even get on the bubble Iowa would have to get within the top 70. It ain't goin' happen.

Let's face it. The only way Iowa makes the tournament is to win the BTT. The Hawks strength of schedule also is a killer.
 
ColumbusHawk said:
In the RPI rankings, Iowa is 138. To even get on the bubble Iowa would have to get within the top 70. It ain't goin' happen.

Let's face it. The only way Iowa makes the tournament is to win the BTT. The Hawks strength of schedule also is a killer.
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With the way Franny has the boys playing, I don't think winning the BIG10 Tourney is such a stretch. He's a great coach and will help them take it just one at time. I think they will win it. And I see going pretty deep in the Big Dance. We have the Gatens machine! They are all playing great. Get ready to hold on!
 
ColumbusHawk said:
In the RPI rankings, Iowa is 138. To even get on the bubble Iowa would have to get within the top 70. It ain't goin' happen.

Let's face it. The only way Iowa makes the tournament is to win the BTT. The Hawks strength of schedule also is a killer.
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If we won seven games in a row before losing in the BTT wouldn't we be close to a 70s-ish RPI?

This whole scenario has like a 1% chance of happening but, man, isn't it great that here it is February 21 and there's a realm of possibility that it could happen? Not so much the past four years.
 
hawkforlife9 said:
With the way Franny has the boys playing, I don't think winning the BIG10 Tourney is such a stretch. He's a great coach and will help them take it just one at time. I think they will win it. And I see going pretty deep in the Big Dance. We have the Gatens machine! They are all playing great. Get ready to hold on!
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Hold on to that bottle and ease up on the throttle.
 
hawkforlife9 said:
With the way Franny has the boys playing, I don't think winning the BIG10 Tourney is such a stretch. He's a great coach and will help them take it just one at time. I think they will win it. And I see going pretty deep in the Big Dance. We have the Gatens machine! They are all playing great. Get ready to hold on!
Click to expand...

They have played great one game in a row now. Ease up a tad.
 
SteveGarvey said:
If we won seven games in a row before losing in the BTT wouldn't we be close to a 70s-ish RPI?

This whole scenario has like a 1% chance of happening but, man, isn't it great that here it is February 21 and there's a realm of possibility that it could happen? Not so much the past four years.
Click to expand...

It's hard to say, but Iowa's RPI ranking actually dropped with the win against Indiana. The non-conference schedule is a killer. Sure Iowa beat Indiana. However, all those crappy non-conference teams probably lost over the weekend. Those loses probably negated the win against the Hoosiers.
 
SteveGarvey said:
If we won seven games in a row before losing in the BTT wouldn't we be close to a 70s-ish RPI?

This whole scenario has like a 1% chance of happening but, man, isn't it great that here it is February 21 and there's a realm of possibility that it could happen? Not so much the past four years.
Click to expand...

It's not that great. It's great we're winning more games and the future looks bright. But that realm of possibility is for us to win 7 straight to get onto the bubble of the NCAA. I'm not exactly sitting on the edge of my seat. Now, if we had beat Campbell, Clemson and Nebraska, things would look a lot different.
 
ColumbusHawk said:
It's hard to say, but Iowa's RPI ranking actually dropped with the win against Indiana. The non-conference schedule is a killer. Sure Iowa beat Indiana. However, all those crappy non-conference teams probably lost over the weekend. Those loses probably negated the win against the Hoosiers.
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No it didn't. We dropped to around 154 after the loss to PSU and have now come back up to 137.

Remaining schedule and current RPI:

Wisconsin - 23
Illinois - 69
Nebraska - 128
Northwestern - 43

If we win out we probably won't have an RPI in the top 70 but we will certainly be in the top 100. That is good enough to be on the bubble.

We will have several quality wins:

Wisky (2)
Indiana
Michigan

Bad losses to Campbell

We will be a top 6 seed in the Big10 tournament and with one win will be in the semi-final game. We win the next 5 and we have a 75% likelihood of NCAA tournament and 100% chance of NIT.
 
ColumbusHawk said:
It's hard to say, but Iowa's RPI ranking actually dropped with the win against Indiana. The non-conference schedule is a killer. Sure Iowa beat Indiana. However, all those crappy non-conference teams probably lost over the weekend. Those loses probably negated the win against the Hoosiers.
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Where are you seeing that we dropped? Ken Pom has us at 97 and Real Time RPI has not updated their ratings since Sunday.
 
hawkeye12345 said:
No it didn't. We dropped to around 154 after the loss to PSU and have now come back up to 137.

Remaining schedule and current RPI:

Wisconsin - 23
Illinois - 69
Nebraska - 128
Northwestern - 43

If we win out we probably won't have an RPI in the top 70 but we will certainly be in the top 100. That is good enough to be on the bubble.

We will have several quality wins:

Wisky (2)
Indiana
Michigan

Bad losses to Campbell

We will be a top 6 seed in the Big10 tournament and with one win will be in the semi-final game. We win the next 5 and we have a 75% likelihood of NCAA tournament and 100% chance of NIT.
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Bolded part correct. Fail on the other stuff.

Bad losses are Campbell, Clemson and Nebraska all at home.

If we are in the top 6 of the B1G tourney it will take more than 1 win to get to the semi-finals. The top 4 teams get byes now and OSU, MSU, Michigan and Wisky are sitting pretty good to claim the byes. 5/12, 6/11, 7/10 and 8/9 are the first round matchups. The winners of those games will play the top 4 seeds in the quarters.

If we were to make a run in the BTT it would be more beneficial to play Thursday as we need all the wins we can get.
 
i fail to see a loss to a ACC team as a bad loss, to me UNI was a bad loss, Nebraska at home is a bad loss, there will be a good chance that Iowa finishes in 5th more likely they finish in 6th as Indiana finishes 5th , i would think if Indiana and Iowa finish in a tie Indiana gets the nod for 5th because of overall record, if some would please get me up to date on tiebreaker rules
 
This is correct...

Section136 said:
Bolded part correct. Fail on the other stuff.

Bad losses are Campbell, Clemson and Nebraska all at home.

If we are in the top 6 of the B1G tourney it will take more than 1 win to get to the semi-finals. The top 4 teams get byes now and OSU, MSU, Michigan and Wisky are sitting pretty good to claim the byes. 5/12, 6/11, 7/10 and 8/9 are the first round matchups. The winners of those games will play the top 4 seeds in the quarters.

If we were to make a run in the BTT it would be more beneficial to play Thursday as we need all the wins we can get.
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if Iowa fails to make the post-season (including NIT or CBI) it will be due to the home losses to Campbell, Clemson and Nebraska. It would have been nice to have beaten Creighton, ISU or UNI on the road/neutral sites, but losses that derail post-season hopes are bad home losses.

Am I wrong in thinking that the only way we get the 6 seed in the BTT is by winning out in the regular season? Purdue is at 7-7 and they would win the tiebreaker against us by virtue of two wins against Iowa. Purdue has home games against Nebraska and Penn State, and roadies at Michigan and Indiana. They are heavy favorites to win the home games and I would be shocked if they win either of the road games without Barlow.
 
hawkforlife9 said:
With the way Franny has the boys playing, I don't think winning the BIG10 Tourney is such a stretch. He's a great coach and will help them take it just one at time. I think they will win it. And I see going pretty deep in the Big Dance. We have the Gatens machine! They are all playing great. Get ready to hold on!
Click to expand...

Didn't we lose to Penn State within the past week?
 
herbyhawk said:
i fail to see a loss to a ACC team as a bad loss, to me UNI was a bad loss, Nebraska at home is a bad loss, there will be a good chance that Iowa finishes in 5th more likely they finish in 6th as Indiana finishes 5th , i would think if Indiana and Iowa finish in a tie Indiana gets the nod for 5th because of overall record, if some would please get me up to date on tiebreaker rules
Click to expand...


Speaking of fail.

The ACC aint what it used to be herby. Clemson is a bad loss at home. Their RPI is in the neighborhood of Nebraska, if not worse and they dominated us in Carver. How can you justify putting Nebraska in the bad loss column but not Clemson?
 
We have far too many bad losses (blowout losses) to be considered for an at large bid unless we win the BTT. Creighton, Campbell, Clemson, ISU and UNI beat the crap out of us. Sprinkle in losses to Nebraska, PSU, NW and a struggling Purdue team (twice) and you have a pretty weak resume. NIT would be huge for this team.
 
hawkIhoops said:
We have far too many bad losses (blowout losses) to be considered for an at large bid unless we win the BTT. Creighton, Campbell, Clemson, ISU and UNI beat the crap out of us. Sprinkle in losses to Nebraska, PSU, NW and a struggling Purdue team (twice) and you have a pretty weak resume. NIT would be huge for this team.
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Which we would then make history as the first team in college basketball history to receive an at-large bid after winning our conference tournament.
 
Section136 said:
Which we would then make history as the first team in college basketball history to receive an at-large bid after winning our conference tournament.
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What? The winner of the BTT gets an automatic bid. It is impossible for any winner of a conference tournament to get an at-large bid. They all get automatic bids.
 
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