JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
The video camera is on the fritz this week, so we'll use the keyboard.
NORTHWESTERN OFFENSE: Dan Persa is back for Northwestern, which is really all you need to know. Iowa fans first saw him take over for Mike Kafka back in Kinnick in 2009 when he ran for 67 yards in the 17-10 Wildcat win.
Last year in Evanston, he was deadly. 32-43 for 318 yards and 50 yards rushing. He was the difference, he is the difference.
He missed the team's first three games this year, but in the two games he has played he is back to his old tricks; completing nearly 73 percent of his passes with four touchdowns. He might not be the running threat he has been in the past as he recovers from the Achilles injury he suffered against Iowa last year, but he is deadly accurate with his arm.
That has played well into Iowa's traditional defensive looks and you'd hope the Hawks have some schemes in place to slow him down this season. Iowa has played four spread teams this year, so they have some experience to rely on but as Kirk Ferentz said this week, Persa is in another league when it comes to the quarterbacks Iowa has faced.
His backup is Kain Kolter, who is a dangerous running threat. He is the team's leading rusher with 294 yards. Mike Trumpy is #2 on their rushing chart this year, but he is lost for the season due to injury. They do not have any game breakers at running back, and Trumpy wasn't one of those before his injury.
However, given the way Penn State and their average offensive line was able to gash the Hawkeyes last week, I would expect the Wildcats to test the inside runs early in this game to see what might pop for them. Northwestern has one of the most experienced offensive lines in the Big Ten, much more so than what Iowa saw against Penn State.
Iowa blitzed a lot last week and blitzed from areas of the field they don't typically come from. The defensive line needs help this year; they can't get to the passer with just four linemen nor can they stop the run with the front four.
In this game, with a quarterback like Persa who is a threat to hurt you with his arm and his legs, contain is of the utmost importance. It's important in every game, but paramount in this one. The defensive ends must do a better job of holding contain on the edge this week than they did a week ago.
Given what I have seen from Iowa this year and what we know of Persa, it's hard to imagine Iowa holding the Cats under 30 points.
NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE: Here are the total yards of offense following by rushing yards Northwestern has allowed this year:
Michigan: 541/179
Illinois: 473/82
Army: 387/381
Eastern Illinois: 341/132
Boston College: 479/104
I suspect the Hawks are going to come out trying to establish some dominance on the ground. I realize that is hardly an 'out on the limb' prediction, as it's what Iowa tries to do in every game. I do expect more of Iowa's no-huddle look in this game, as they are in Kinnick Stadium this week. I'd like to see Iowa run the ball out of some spread shotgun looks to give the running backs more room to roam.
This is not a great defense, but it's salty enough to cause Iowa some problems if the Hawkeyes are predictable. They don't really have anyone you have to scheme out of the game, which has typically been the case when looking at Northwestern defenses.
IOWA OFFENSE: Get a little more creative than last week, but also execute what is there. Immediately after the Penn State game, I felt like Iowa was not creative enough on offense. After watching the game again, the execution was not there. The defense had to go back on the field after being out there 30 plays in two drives due to a dropped pass. There were too many dropped passes in that game.
The disappearance of the tight ends from the offense is shocking. Derby has been unreliable and Herman has made mental mistakes. I have no idea what is up with CJ Fed other than he must not be getting it done in practice. The traditional 'tight end' areas were there last week, but Iowa could not pull the trigger.
Marcus Coker had some success last week, but he was the lone ball carrier for the Hawkeyes. My guess is that Coach Ferentz didn't want to put his young running backs into that road environment nor did he want them testing their mettle in the pass blocking game against an aggressive Penn State defensive game plan.
He used veteran Brad Rogers, who was playing his first game since last November, and Rogers missed a blitz pick up that led to a sack and fumble.
At home, you need to give Damon Bullock or Jordan Canzeri some reps between the 20's. They are faster and quicker than Coker and this offense must use all of the weapons it has at its disposal. With four of the next five at home, these kids have to be brought along so they can contribute for you later in the year.
As I have said repeatedly, Iowa doesn't need to go wild and abandon what it wants to do. Throwing the change of pace wrinkle a few times a game is good, and doing it in the middle of a series has seemed to work for them.
In the end, regardless of scheme, the players must execute what is before them and they did not do enough of that last week...or really their last five Big Ten games, for that matter. The Hawks are averaging just 14.8 points per game since scoring 37 against Michigan State on October 30th of last year.
IOWA DEFENSE: There really haven't been too many surprises here this year. I didn't have high hopes for the defensive line, so I am not disappointed. This group can't stop the run or rush the passer with just four, like we have seen Iowa do for the past three seasons and like they did 2002-2004.
Iowa will need to continue to send more assets in run support and in the pass rush to be competitive this year. While they were gashed on the ground last week, they still allowed just 13 points. That's a winning number nearly every week of the year and about the best you can hope for from this Iowa defense. It may wind up being the lowest point total that Iowa allows the rest of the way, so it was certainly an opportunity lost by the Iowa offense.
Bringing heat from the edge in this game might be a popular scheme, if the Hawks can bow up and hold their own on the interior. If you bring a blind side corner or backer, you still have the defensive end that can keep contain in the event Persa wriggles free.
The Hawkeyes CANNOT play it safe in this game, or Dan Persa will tear them apart...which is why I think they will dial it up at home.
THE IOWA FANS: The Hawkeye fans always answer the bell. They will be needed in this game in a big way. The defense will feed off of that energy and this is really a must win game for this football team. If they lose and fall to 0-2, they are pretty much out of the Legends Division race.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Eric Guthrie has been a revelation this year, at least to those of us outside the walls of Fort Kinnick. Mike Meyer is 23 of 28 on field goals in his career and 8th in the nation this season having made 9 of his 11 attempts. Micah Hyde is still getting acclimated to the punt return game and the Hawkeyes have been decent on kickoff returns. In the second half last week, Iowa took Jordan Bernstine off of the kickoff return unit and inserted Jordan Canzeri, who was unable to make a return in two touchback attempts. Iowa is 91st in the nation in kickoff coverage, Northwestern is 8th.
SUMMARY: Northwestern is 0-2 in the Big Ten, 2-3 overall. This is a must-win game for their bowl hopes, so both teams have so much on the line which should make for an all out entertaining football game under the lights in Kinnick Stadium. Should Iowa lose this game, it won't be because they didn't give it everything they had.
Northwestern led at Illinois by 18 points more than midway through the third quarter only to lose it late. Northwestern led Michigan by 10 points at halftime last week, too. This is not a soft team and with Persa under center, we all know the magic that can happen there.
Iowa's offense is going to have to go out and win this game and based on what we saw last week, I am at a loss as to what to expect from them. They pulled off a miracle comeback against Pitt and then looked solid against an overmatched ULM team. If you take away the fourth quarter against Pitt, this offense has looked below average against the three BCS Conference teams they have played this year.
That being the case, and really being at a loss for any type of read on this team, I will predict Northwestern 34, Iowa 31. I hope I am wrong and given my recent track record of predicting Iowa's games, there is a good chance of that being the case.
I would also like to thank Hummel's Nissan of Des Moines for sponsoring our weekly Iowa football predictions. They are located on Merle Day in Des Moines, and my family has owned three Nissan's. I am on my second straight Altima and it has been the best car I have ever owned, with great gas mileage. My wife has a Nissan Quest minivan which we picked up this summer, the third minivan we have purchased, and it's by far the best we have owned.
NORTHWESTERN OFFENSE: Dan Persa is back for Northwestern, which is really all you need to know. Iowa fans first saw him take over for Mike Kafka back in Kinnick in 2009 when he ran for 67 yards in the 17-10 Wildcat win.
Last year in Evanston, he was deadly. 32-43 for 318 yards and 50 yards rushing. He was the difference, he is the difference.
He missed the team's first three games this year, but in the two games he has played he is back to his old tricks; completing nearly 73 percent of his passes with four touchdowns. He might not be the running threat he has been in the past as he recovers from the Achilles injury he suffered against Iowa last year, but he is deadly accurate with his arm.
That has played well into Iowa's traditional defensive looks and you'd hope the Hawks have some schemes in place to slow him down this season. Iowa has played four spread teams this year, so they have some experience to rely on but as Kirk Ferentz said this week, Persa is in another league when it comes to the quarterbacks Iowa has faced.
His backup is Kain Kolter, who is a dangerous running threat. He is the team's leading rusher with 294 yards. Mike Trumpy is #2 on their rushing chart this year, but he is lost for the season due to injury. They do not have any game breakers at running back, and Trumpy wasn't one of those before his injury.
However, given the way Penn State and their average offensive line was able to gash the Hawkeyes last week, I would expect the Wildcats to test the inside runs early in this game to see what might pop for them. Northwestern has one of the most experienced offensive lines in the Big Ten, much more so than what Iowa saw against Penn State.
Iowa blitzed a lot last week and blitzed from areas of the field they don't typically come from. The defensive line needs help this year; they can't get to the passer with just four linemen nor can they stop the run with the front four.
In this game, with a quarterback like Persa who is a threat to hurt you with his arm and his legs, contain is of the utmost importance. It's important in every game, but paramount in this one. The defensive ends must do a better job of holding contain on the edge this week than they did a week ago.
Given what I have seen from Iowa this year and what we know of Persa, it's hard to imagine Iowa holding the Cats under 30 points.
NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE: Here are the total yards of offense following by rushing yards Northwestern has allowed this year:
Michigan: 541/179
Illinois: 473/82
Army: 387/381
Eastern Illinois: 341/132
Boston College: 479/104
I suspect the Hawks are going to come out trying to establish some dominance on the ground. I realize that is hardly an 'out on the limb' prediction, as it's what Iowa tries to do in every game. I do expect more of Iowa's no-huddle look in this game, as they are in Kinnick Stadium this week. I'd like to see Iowa run the ball out of some spread shotgun looks to give the running backs more room to roam.
This is not a great defense, but it's salty enough to cause Iowa some problems if the Hawkeyes are predictable. They don't really have anyone you have to scheme out of the game, which has typically been the case when looking at Northwestern defenses.
IOWA OFFENSE: Get a little more creative than last week, but also execute what is there. Immediately after the Penn State game, I felt like Iowa was not creative enough on offense. After watching the game again, the execution was not there. The defense had to go back on the field after being out there 30 plays in two drives due to a dropped pass. There were too many dropped passes in that game.
The disappearance of the tight ends from the offense is shocking. Derby has been unreliable and Herman has made mental mistakes. I have no idea what is up with CJ Fed other than he must not be getting it done in practice. The traditional 'tight end' areas were there last week, but Iowa could not pull the trigger.
Marcus Coker had some success last week, but he was the lone ball carrier for the Hawkeyes. My guess is that Coach Ferentz didn't want to put his young running backs into that road environment nor did he want them testing their mettle in the pass blocking game against an aggressive Penn State defensive game plan.
He used veteran Brad Rogers, who was playing his first game since last November, and Rogers missed a blitz pick up that led to a sack and fumble.
At home, you need to give Damon Bullock or Jordan Canzeri some reps between the 20's. They are faster and quicker than Coker and this offense must use all of the weapons it has at its disposal. With four of the next five at home, these kids have to be brought along so they can contribute for you later in the year.
As I have said repeatedly, Iowa doesn't need to go wild and abandon what it wants to do. Throwing the change of pace wrinkle a few times a game is good, and doing it in the middle of a series has seemed to work for them.
In the end, regardless of scheme, the players must execute what is before them and they did not do enough of that last week...or really their last five Big Ten games, for that matter. The Hawks are averaging just 14.8 points per game since scoring 37 against Michigan State on October 30th of last year.
IOWA DEFENSE: There really haven't been too many surprises here this year. I didn't have high hopes for the defensive line, so I am not disappointed. This group can't stop the run or rush the passer with just four, like we have seen Iowa do for the past three seasons and like they did 2002-2004.
Iowa will need to continue to send more assets in run support and in the pass rush to be competitive this year. While they were gashed on the ground last week, they still allowed just 13 points. That's a winning number nearly every week of the year and about the best you can hope for from this Iowa defense. It may wind up being the lowest point total that Iowa allows the rest of the way, so it was certainly an opportunity lost by the Iowa offense.
Bringing heat from the edge in this game might be a popular scheme, if the Hawks can bow up and hold their own on the interior. If you bring a blind side corner or backer, you still have the defensive end that can keep contain in the event Persa wriggles free.
The Hawkeyes CANNOT play it safe in this game, or Dan Persa will tear them apart...which is why I think they will dial it up at home.
THE IOWA FANS: The Hawkeye fans always answer the bell. They will be needed in this game in a big way. The defense will feed off of that energy and this is really a must win game for this football team. If they lose and fall to 0-2, they are pretty much out of the Legends Division race.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Eric Guthrie has been a revelation this year, at least to those of us outside the walls of Fort Kinnick. Mike Meyer is 23 of 28 on field goals in his career and 8th in the nation this season having made 9 of his 11 attempts. Micah Hyde is still getting acclimated to the punt return game and the Hawkeyes have been decent on kickoff returns. In the second half last week, Iowa took Jordan Bernstine off of the kickoff return unit and inserted Jordan Canzeri, who was unable to make a return in two touchback attempts. Iowa is 91st in the nation in kickoff coverage, Northwestern is 8th.
SUMMARY: Northwestern is 0-2 in the Big Ten, 2-3 overall. This is a must-win game for their bowl hopes, so both teams have so much on the line which should make for an all out entertaining football game under the lights in Kinnick Stadium. Should Iowa lose this game, it won't be because they didn't give it everything they had.
Northwestern led at Illinois by 18 points more than midway through the third quarter only to lose it late. Northwestern led Michigan by 10 points at halftime last week, too. This is not a soft team and with Persa under center, we all know the magic that can happen there.
Iowa's offense is going to have to go out and win this game and based on what we saw last week, I am at a loss as to what to expect from them. They pulled off a miracle comeback against Pitt and then looked solid against an overmatched ULM team. If you take away the fourth quarter against Pitt, this offense has looked below average against the three BCS Conference teams they have played this year.
That being the case, and really being at a loss for any type of read on this team, I will predict Northwestern 34, Iowa 31. I hope I am wrong and given my recent track record of predicting Iowa's games, there is a good chance of that being the case.
I would also like to thank Hummel's Nissan of Des Moines for sponsoring our weekly Iowa football predictions. They are located on Merle Day in Des Moines, and my family has owned three Nissan's. I am on my second straight Altima and it has been the best car I have ever owned, with great gas mileage. My wife has a Nissan Quest minivan which we picked up this summer, the third minivan we have purchased, and it's by far the best we have owned.
