JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
IOWA NCAA STAT RANKINGS
MICHIGAN NCAA STAT RANKINGS
WHEN MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL: Last year, Denard Robinson had the biggest total offensive season a Big Ten player has ever had. We've all seen the highlights, we know that if he gets in space he can take it to the house. The Iowa defense hemmed him in as well as anyone did in 2010 and knocked him out of the game early in the third quarter.
This year's Michigan team has not relied on Robinson's legs as much this year as they did a year ago, having developed other big play hitters.
Fitzgerald Toussaint is averaging 70 yards per game on the ground, Vincent Smith close to 40 while Robinson is #17 in the country with 111 yards per game.
Iowa's two big keys in this game are containment on the edges and being able to muck up the running lanes on the inside. If Michigan establishes it's inside running game, I don't see much of a chance for Iowa in this one. If they fail to contain Robinson on the edge, the same applies. A huge concern here for Iowa is they didn't do well on the inside runs at Penn State nor have they consistently contained the quarterback on the side of the line opposite Broderick Binns.
I also believe Michigan will go four and five wide, with several empty backfield looks, leaving Robinson in a position to beat Tyler Nielsen who will likely be spying on him some.
First down is always important, but in this game it's essential; Iowa has to keep Michigan in check on first down to get Robinson in position to have to throw the ball on third down. He's still not a great passer and will throw the ball in traffic; he has 11 touchdown passes to go with 11 interceptions.
Iowa just has to get off the field more than it has this year. Last week was a step in the right direction for the the first three quarters. Minnesota had 11 possessions, and five of those 11 resulted in Gopher drives of three plays or less. However, that was the worst offense in the Big Ten and Michigan brings the second best offense in the Big Ten into Kinnick.
Concerning? Yes, especially when you consider Iowa is allowing 6.6 plays per opponent possession this year, which is the worst average in college football (according to Kirk Haaland's data at www.encyclonepedia.com)
On the flip side of this, the Hawkeyes will have to use whatever they have in the tank. Michigan State blitzed Denard Robinson into submission earlier this year, but Iowa is not a blitz team. When you are not a blitz team and you blitz a lot, it's not a great recipe as we have seen through the years from Iowa's teams. Blitzing is a lot more than just running in to attack the quarterback. I'd rather see Iowa commit more assets to defend the run and take my chances against Robinson's arm. What CANNOT happen is a situation where Robinson is comfortable in the pocket. If he doesn't see consistent pressure, even an erratic passer can settle in and make plays as we saw last week from arguably the Big Ten's worst passer in Marqueis Gray. Not only that, Robinson can use that time to find the soft spots to run in, which is a nightmare.
Michigan is the 8th best running team in the nation. They are going to try to pound the ball. Iowa has yet to prove this year that it can withstand such a pounding, so it's all hands on deck and bring out whatever weapons you have at your disposal to stop it. If you don't, you're done.
WHEN IOWA HAS THE BALL: Just like on defense, this is a kitchen sink game for the Iowa offense. Whatever they have in the well, it needs to come out and be on the field Saturday.
Michigan does not have a 'great' rushing defense, ranking 55th in the nation and 6th in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes will certainly look to establish their running game as Marcus Coker is starting to hit a stride. Kirk Ferentz said this week that Mika'il McCall WILL play in this game. I will make no predictions as to what that means or what kind of production he'll have, but he does have a speed burst that Coker does not have. However, if you expect to see the McCall you saw for nine carries against Tennessee Tech, you may be in for a disappointment as I don't know how much he has been tackled the last week or two in practice. When we saw him in the season opener, he had been seeing a lot of contact drills in camp and he was sharp.
Iowa really missed Keenan Davis last week at Minnesota. The Gophers were rolling safety coverage over to Marvin McNutt's side early in the contest because Davis was not there on the other side. Sorry to bring this up, but I am still perplexed as to why Davis was even in the game against Minnesota with under seven minutes to play and the game well in hand for Iowa; that's when he rolled his ankle. I felt the same last year when Adam Robinson was left in the game in the fourth quarter with the Hawks up 30 against Michigan State and suffered his concussion, but we'll stop right there. Ferentz sounded optimistic as it relates to Davis' availability this week.
James Vandenberg has looked much more comfortable and confident at home this year than he has on the road. He has an unbeaten record as the starter in Kinnick Stadium in his career, too. He has to play one of his best mental games of the year in this one, as I believe he'll see things from Michigan that he's yet to see in any of his 10 starts in an Iowa uniform. More on that in a minute.
Haaland also has a bad stat for Iowa's offense, too. The Hawkeyes are 114 out of 120 in possessions per game (10.75). This stat isn't as big a concern as the 6.6 plays per opponent possession allowed, as if you are a ball control team that is scoring points when you get to the redzone it's not as important. Up until last week, Iowa had one of the best redzone offenses in the nation, scoring 26 of 27 redzone attempts. Last week, the Hawks were just 3 of 6 and it cost them the game.
This week, Iowa not only has to convert every time it gets to the redzone, but they'll need touchdowns, not field goals, once they get there because it's going to take a 30 point effort from Iowa in this game if they have a shot to win and even that might not be enough. Remember this; Michigan has scored 28 points against Iowa in each of the last two seasons against defenses that were Top 15 in the nation. Those combined 56 points were more than any other Big Ten team scored against Iowa in that time span. This year's Iowa defense might not be a shadow of those units while this Michigan offense is just as potent, if not more so, than it was last year.
On the flip side, Iowa is facing the best Michigan defense since before Rich Rodriguez came to Ann Arbor. They are coached by Greg Mattison, a former NFL Defensive Coordinator and father of former Hawkeye defensive end Bryan Mattison.
Greg has spent plenty of time in the Iowa football complex, talking shop with the Iowa coaches. He left the college game in 2004 and was the linebackers coach with the Baltimore Ravens, being named their Defensive Coordinator in 2009. During the time his son was at Iowa, he watched every Iowa game either in person or on TV. It's not like Iowa does anything crazy on offense, but if there is a soft underbelly, Mattison will know where it is and how to exploit it.
His defensive scheme and looks he is showing at Michigan are also more complex and advanced than anything James Vandenberg will have seen. Michigan is not a huge blitz team right now due to personnel reasons, but their blitzes are not always conventional. You can see an NFL flair to their approach and as Mattison and Brady Hoke bring in better players, this Michigan defense will become fearsome once again. This year's group is not great, but they are getting it done in points allowed per game.
THROW IN: The Iowa program has played well when its back has been against the wall, especially at home. In his Iowa-Michigan breakdown, Rob Howe shared some interesting numbers. Iowa is 11-3-1 against the spread in their last 15 games as an underdog, 4-0-1 in their last five games as a home underdog. Those numbers are interesting, but they were compiled from teams that had Top Eight scoring defenses.
SUMMARY: Wind may play a factor in this game. The forecast is for sustained winds north of 10mph to start with the winds getting stronger as the game goes along. If this favors anyone, it would be Michigan because Iowa's passing game is a much more critical part of the Hawkeye offense than it is to Michigan's. The wind also played a factor in Michigan's lone loss at Michigan State this year, with both teams abandoning the passing game for two quarters of that contest. I don't think tomorrow's winds will be THAT bad, but it's something to keep an eye on.
Iowa will have to play their best game of the season to win this game, given where Michigan is strong and Iowa is not; stopping the run. I don't expect the defense to wake up the echoes and play over their ski tips, but the offense can do that. The offense will have to play a near flawless game and if Iowa can establish the run and finish drives with touchdowns, that will be a big boost to the defense. However, this team has not shown that sort of consistency.
The Iowa coaches have likely told the team that they can still win a Big Ten title. After a tough loss like the one last week, you have to bring out every motivational factor you have at your disposal and while the coaches are loathe to look beyond the next game, you have to remind your team that they can still be champions. Win the rest of em, and you are playing in Indianapolis. That being said and lacking consistency this season, I am picking Michigan 37, Iowa 31.
If you live in or near the Des Moines Metro and are in the market for a new car, please give Hummel's Nissan on the Merle Hay Auto Row a visit. Great service and great products. The last three automobile purchases I have made have been Nissan's and I have had zero complaints. We thank Hummel's for sponsoring our Iowa football prediction articles this football season and for their support of HawkeyeNation.com
MICHIGAN NCAA STAT RANKINGS
WHEN MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL: Last year, Denard Robinson had the biggest total offensive season a Big Ten player has ever had. We've all seen the highlights, we know that if he gets in space he can take it to the house. The Iowa defense hemmed him in as well as anyone did in 2010 and knocked him out of the game early in the third quarter.
This year's Michigan team has not relied on Robinson's legs as much this year as they did a year ago, having developed other big play hitters.
Fitzgerald Toussaint is averaging 70 yards per game on the ground, Vincent Smith close to 40 while Robinson is #17 in the country with 111 yards per game.
Iowa's two big keys in this game are containment on the edges and being able to muck up the running lanes on the inside. If Michigan establishes it's inside running game, I don't see much of a chance for Iowa in this one. If they fail to contain Robinson on the edge, the same applies. A huge concern here for Iowa is they didn't do well on the inside runs at Penn State nor have they consistently contained the quarterback on the side of the line opposite Broderick Binns.
I also believe Michigan will go four and five wide, with several empty backfield looks, leaving Robinson in a position to beat Tyler Nielsen who will likely be spying on him some.
First down is always important, but in this game it's essential; Iowa has to keep Michigan in check on first down to get Robinson in position to have to throw the ball on third down. He's still not a great passer and will throw the ball in traffic; he has 11 touchdown passes to go with 11 interceptions.
Iowa just has to get off the field more than it has this year. Last week was a step in the right direction for the the first three quarters. Minnesota had 11 possessions, and five of those 11 resulted in Gopher drives of three plays or less. However, that was the worst offense in the Big Ten and Michigan brings the second best offense in the Big Ten into Kinnick.
Concerning? Yes, especially when you consider Iowa is allowing 6.6 plays per opponent possession this year, which is the worst average in college football (according to Kirk Haaland's data at www.encyclonepedia.com)
On the flip side of this, the Hawkeyes will have to use whatever they have in the tank. Michigan State blitzed Denard Robinson into submission earlier this year, but Iowa is not a blitz team. When you are not a blitz team and you blitz a lot, it's not a great recipe as we have seen through the years from Iowa's teams. Blitzing is a lot more than just running in to attack the quarterback. I'd rather see Iowa commit more assets to defend the run and take my chances against Robinson's arm. What CANNOT happen is a situation where Robinson is comfortable in the pocket. If he doesn't see consistent pressure, even an erratic passer can settle in and make plays as we saw last week from arguably the Big Ten's worst passer in Marqueis Gray. Not only that, Robinson can use that time to find the soft spots to run in, which is a nightmare.
Michigan is the 8th best running team in the nation. They are going to try to pound the ball. Iowa has yet to prove this year that it can withstand such a pounding, so it's all hands on deck and bring out whatever weapons you have at your disposal to stop it. If you don't, you're done.
WHEN IOWA HAS THE BALL: Just like on defense, this is a kitchen sink game for the Iowa offense. Whatever they have in the well, it needs to come out and be on the field Saturday.
Michigan does not have a 'great' rushing defense, ranking 55th in the nation and 6th in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes will certainly look to establish their running game as Marcus Coker is starting to hit a stride. Kirk Ferentz said this week that Mika'il McCall WILL play in this game. I will make no predictions as to what that means or what kind of production he'll have, but he does have a speed burst that Coker does not have. However, if you expect to see the McCall you saw for nine carries against Tennessee Tech, you may be in for a disappointment as I don't know how much he has been tackled the last week or two in practice. When we saw him in the season opener, he had been seeing a lot of contact drills in camp and he was sharp.
Iowa really missed Keenan Davis last week at Minnesota. The Gophers were rolling safety coverage over to Marvin McNutt's side early in the contest because Davis was not there on the other side. Sorry to bring this up, but I am still perplexed as to why Davis was even in the game against Minnesota with under seven minutes to play and the game well in hand for Iowa; that's when he rolled his ankle. I felt the same last year when Adam Robinson was left in the game in the fourth quarter with the Hawks up 30 against Michigan State and suffered his concussion, but we'll stop right there. Ferentz sounded optimistic as it relates to Davis' availability this week.
James Vandenberg has looked much more comfortable and confident at home this year than he has on the road. He has an unbeaten record as the starter in Kinnick Stadium in his career, too. He has to play one of his best mental games of the year in this one, as I believe he'll see things from Michigan that he's yet to see in any of his 10 starts in an Iowa uniform. More on that in a minute.
Haaland also has a bad stat for Iowa's offense, too. The Hawkeyes are 114 out of 120 in possessions per game (10.75). This stat isn't as big a concern as the 6.6 plays per opponent possession allowed, as if you are a ball control team that is scoring points when you get to the redzone it's not as important. Up until last week, Iowa had one of the best redzone offenses in the nation, scoring 26 of 27 redzone attempts. Last week, the Hawks were just 3 of 6 and it cost them the game.
This week, Iowa not only has to convert every time it gets to the redzone, but they'll need touchdowns, not field goals, once they get there because it's going to take a 30 point effort from Iowa in this game if they have a shot to win and even that might not be enough. Remember this; Michigan has scored 28 points against Iowa in each of the last two seasons against defenses that were Top 15 in the nation. Those combined 56 points were more than any other Big Ten team scored against Iowa in that time span. This year's Iowa defense might not be a shadow of those units while this Michigan offense is just as potent, if not more so, than it was last year.
On the flip side, Iowa is facing the best Michigan defense since before Rich Rodriguez came to Ann Arbor. They are coached by Greg Mattison, a former NFL Defensive Coordinator and father of former Hawkeye defensive end Bryan Mattison.
Greg has spent plenty of time in the Iowa football complex, talking shop with the Iowa coaches. He left the college game in 2004 and was the linebackers coach with the Baltimore Ravens, being named their Defensive Coordinator in 2009. During the time his son was at Iowa, he watched every Iowa game either in person or on TV. It's not like Iowa does anything crazy on offense, but if there is a soft underbelly, Mattison will know where it is and how to exploit it.
His defensive scheme and looks he is showing at Michigan are also more complex and advanced than anything James Vandenberg will have seen. Michigan is not a huge blitz team right now due to personnel reasons, but their blitzes are not always conventional. You can see an NFL flair to their approach and as Mattison and Brady Hoke bring in better players, this Michigan defense will become fearsome once again. This year's group is not great, but they are getting it done in points allowed per game.
THROW IN: The Iowa program has played well when its back has been against the wall, especially at home. In his Iowa-Michigan breakdown, Rob Howe shared some interesting numbers. Iowa is 11-3-1 against the spread in their last 15 games as an underdog, 4-0-1 in their last five games as a home underdog. Those numbers are interesting, but they were compiled from teams that had Top Eight scoring defenses.
SUMMARY: Wind may play a factor in this game. The forecast is for sustained winds north of 10mph to start with the winds getting stronger as the game goes along. If this favors anyone, it would be Michigan because Iowa's passing game is a much more critical part of the Hawkeye offense than it is to Michigan's. The wind also played a factor in Michigan's lone loss at Michigan State this year, with both teams abandoning the passing game for two quarters of that contest. I don't think tomorrow's winds will be THAT bad, but it's something to keep an eye on.
Iowa will have to play their best game of the season to win this game, given where Michigan is strong and Iowa is not; stopping the run. I don't expect the defense to wake up the echoes and play over their ski tips, but the offense can do that. The offense will have to play a near flawless game and if Iowa can establish the run and finish drives with touchdowns, that will be a big boost to the defense. However, this team has not shown that sort of consistency.
The Iowa coaches have likely told the team that they can still win a Big Ten title. After a tough loss like the one last week, you have to bring out every motivational factor you have at your disposal and while the coaches are loathe to look beyond the next game, you have to remind your team that they can still be champions. Win the rest of em, and you are playing in Indianapolis. That being said and lacking consistency this season, I am picking Michigan 37, Iowa 31.
If you live in or near the Des Moines Metro and are in the market for a new car, please give Hummel's Nissan on the Merle Hay Auto Row a visit. Great service and great products. The last three automobile purchases I have made have been Nissan's and I have had zero complaints. We thank Hummel's for sponsoring our Iowa football prediction articles this football season and for their support of HawkeyeNation.com
