Hawks 25 in new AP poll
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Fryowa
Administrator
When it comes to basketball, NET rating is the one and only thing that matters and Iowa is #11. AP poll doesn't mean dick.
Iowa also doesn't have a Quad 1 win so once B1G play hits that 11 is gonna probably drop quick. Can't even think about looking at rankings until at least a 1/3rd of the way through B1G play.
Iowa’s NET ranking is 13th. KenPom 19th. Torvik 18th and projecting Iowa for a 6 seed in the tourney.
The metrics love Iowa. Honestly barring a meltdown Iowa is easily in the tourney.
Your seed will be impacted by the lack of Q1 and Q2 wins but plenty of opportunity for that in conference play. But right now Iowa is clearly in.
Start Big Ten UCLA at home and at Minnesota then Illinois Purdue and Indiana we look pretty good now but we need to win 2 of those. We are just not talented enough to step on court and beat anyone in Big Ten without coming to play. Hope it doesn’t happen but we could lose all 5.
Agreed. But Iowa has given themselves room to lose a game or two in conference play they shouldn’t.
Depending on which games Iowa could go 9-11 in conference play and be in pretty easily IMO.
Here is how I see those five games shaking out:
UCLA - Home - W
Minnesota - Road - W
Illinois - Home - Toss Up
Purdue - Road - L
Indiana - Road - Toss Up
Yes, we could lose all five but the from what I've seen out of this team I will be disappointed if we don't win three of them. Some might think I'm crazy to have Illinois and Indiana as toss ups but we have shown we can be in every game; if Indiana were a home game I would say it's a W. Looking forward to seeing the results.
Yeah, I find this NET ranking about as meaningful as preseason college football polls. There's a reason the college football playoff committee doesn't put out their 1st rankings until halfway through the season.
Sure, Iowa's only 2 losses are to the #3 and #7 teams in the nation, but they have no Quad 1 or 2 wins, and only one Quad 3 win. Apparently beating Quad 4 teams by 30-50 pts carries weight in the NET formula.
Fryowa
Administrator
For sure. Sample size is way too small to put any interest in it for another month and a half.
Fryowa
Administrator
The NCAA hasn't divulged the exact NET formula, but they have stated that margin of victory is a part of it
Some people say that's bullshit because a win is a win, and when it comes tourney time wins/losses alone are what determines who moves on and is ultimately the champ.
I understand both sides of that part of it when it comes to including it in the NET, though. On one hand beating Bucknell by 55 is pretty meaningless as a measuring stick against say, conference opponents or whatever. But...I think it's fair to say that Team A who beats Bucknell by 55 is better than Team B who beats Bucknell by 20 in that particular matchup. That should be accounted for, IMO.
Correct. Part of the formula needs fixed around this but until they do piss pounding these 300+ teams is very helpful.
Don’t look not but we are 1/3 through the season. Iowa would have to absolutely tank to even get down to around 50 right now.
Here’s the problem - margin of victory is capped at 20 points.
The efficiency part is not capped. If you’re scoring 1.3 PPP and holding your opponent to .7 PPP over a large # of possessions it makes your overall rating just get jacked up
You are a bit of a negative nancy though. They have been 30 to 1 to make the final four, 80 to 1 to win the championship, in the 30's an 20's moving steadily up and on a collision course with the AP rankings. They have been giving good lines on the betting form. Even after St. John's and Purdue the ISU line was quite close even with ISU at home. Whether BS or a smokescreen or you buy in or not the Hawks and the Big Ten have been well regarded so far by the media and the metrics/ratings so far. Not sure what you are looking at to say they would never be ranked or doesn't look like they will make the tourney. I feel they are a slight bit overrated and haven't proven some of the high ratings they have just yet like 11th or 13th in the NET(whichever is right). I have been oddly surprised at the betting lines, odds, and metrics so far this early into the new era. They did notice we played well against the clowns and did reward us for it.
Fryowa
Administrator
Shouldn't efficiency get rewarded? If every team is being compared against every team it's valid IMO. There are 20 some teams that will also play Bucknell in the pool as well. I get that the only way it's totally apples/apples if if every team plays every other team, but 350 games in a season isn't feasible.
