Indiana, OSU, Oregon, and Michigan are the teams at this point that if nothing goes haywire have a chance at the 3 spots.
--OSU is going to be in.
--Indiana has a very soft schedule and unless they fall apart will be in.
--Oregon plays Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, USC, and Washington in that order. I don't see a loss in there but even if they drop one they are in.
--Michigan plays MSU, Purdue, NW, Maryland, and OSU. I see one loss in there and it being Ohio State will not be held against them. NW is not the dark horse people are saying they are. Even if they lose to NW it will be looked at same as ours against ISU.
To get in the playoffs Iowa would likely have to win out including Oregon. If it comes down to it and Michigan, Iowa, and Oregon have similar looking resumes...Oregon or Michigan are getting the nod over us, period. Even with a win over Oregon because they didn't get beat by ISU. Whether you think that should be held against Iowa or not is irrelevant. It's up to the committee, not fans.
Bottom line, the non conference schedule is a liability for the Hawks. They need to drop the ISU game. Indiana had 3 wet blankets and so did NW. If you're at the level of Iowa where everything has to go perfect to make the playoff, you need to have a 3-0 non conference slate guaranteed.