Hate to talk about Nebby more than we have to but....

H

HawkeyeStout

Well-Known Member
Not sure if this has already been discussed but..Why are they picked ahead of Iowa? I understand the stupidity of the FPI, but I've seen a couple sports analysts pick them to win the west as well. Whats with that? One guy said they were more talented than Iowa? In what ways? I'm honestly asking because I don't follow them that much, but by my estimations on talent levels by positions:

OL - Iowa
QB - Iowa
RBs - Iowa
WR - Nebraska
TEs - Iowa

DL - Iowa
LB - Iowa
DBs - Iowa

I understand they return a good amount of starters from last year, but so does Iowa... And Iowa won 12 games and Neb won 6. Whats the deal? I agree that they will be better than last year but to not have an Iowa team returning their core from a 12-2 campaign, is completely ludicrous.
Correct me on anything if I'm wrong please, because I am trying to figure this out
 
Year 2 of a new coach so the media usually gives a bump thinking the system will be firmly in place and the perception they lost close games simply due to bad luck. Mostly bored writers trying to get clicks before the season starts.
 
They get more recognition than they deserve based on their history. It's kind of like how Texas is ranked every year even though they've been very mediocre under Strong.
 
The "Almost Won 10 Games If It Was't For 5 Bad Plays" reason is getting really old too. I should have added that
 
I'm one that believes we are the front runner for the west, but at the same time feel there is very little margin for error. I don't want to give Nebraska too much credit but with the exception of Iowa and Purdue (8 pt. and 10 pt. losses) the remainder of those losses could have very easily gone the other way as they last the other 5 games by a combined 13 points. Despite their record they were very competitive last year.

I'm a firm believer that a loss is still a loss regardless of how close the score is, and that there's no such thing as moral victories, but despite their record last season there is potential for them to be a dangerous football team. I wouldn't be shocked if they were still in the hunt for the division going into the last week, if we run into any hiccups along the way.

I also think they may be even with us in terms of their running game.
 
kicker22 said:
I'm one that believes we are the front runner for the west, but at the same time feel there is very little margin for error. I don't want to give Nebraska too much credit but with the exception of Iowa and Purdue (8 pt. and 10 pt. losses) the remainder of those losses could have very easily gone the other way as they last the other 5 games by a combined 13 points. Despite their record they were very competitive last year.

I'm a firm believer that a loss is still a loss regardless of how close the score is, and that there's no such thing as moral victories, but despite their record last season there is potential for them to be a dangerous football team. I wouldn't be shocked if they were still in the hunt for the division going into the last week, if we run into any hiccups along the way.

I also think they may be even with us in terms of their running game.
Click to expand...

I think this is spot-on. Their record says they were what they were. What it doesn't say is they could have been 7-5 or 8-4 after regular season and it's not like we blew them out.
 
kicker22 said:
I'm one that believes we are the front runner for the west, but at the same time feel there is very little margin for error. I don't want to give Nebraska too much credit but with the exception of Iowa and Purdue (8 pt. and 10 pt. losses) the remainder of those losses could have very easily gone the other way as they last the other 5 games by a combined 13 points. Despite their record they were very competitive last year.

I'm a firm believer that a loss is still a loss regardless of how close the score is, and that there's no such thing as moral victories, but despite their record last season there is potential for them to be a dangerous football team. I wouldn't be shocked if they were still in the hunt for the division going into the last week, if we run into any hiccups along the way.

I also think they may be even with us in terms of their running game.
Click to expand...

I even agree that it's not a land slide... but to be not even favored to win under all these circumstances is a head-scratcher.

Also, Nebraska has a tough road schedule (Oregon, @iowa, @Wisc, @NW, @OSU) I think Iowa has a chance at clinching before they even get to the head to head.
 
I'd like to add that Nebraska's turnover problem is not bad luck either. They've had 24+ turnovers a season for the last 5 seasons. That's about 2 per game. Of course they're going to lose games that way, because a ton of turnovers is a sign of a sloppy, undisciplined team.
 
WinOneThisCentury said:
Those were 7 quality losses last year guys. Quality. I still think that's one of the best signs I've seen at Game Day.

Quality Losses:
Nebraska - 7
Iowa - 0
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I love this. Who was the other quality loss they had. Doing the math I get Purdue plus 6 others. Surely they wouldn't consider a 10 pt. loss to Purdue quality. The irony is that 10 pt. loss to Purdue was there worst loss of the year.
 
I'm going to try and play devils advocate here and talk from the Nebraska point of view which I'm not advocating for but I'm between classes and bored so here I go.
1) Riley is a pretty solid coach. He had a winning record at Oregon State in about a decade and a half period which is no small feat. It would be much like having a decade of over .500 ball at Iowa State. Expecting a one to two win improvement over 2015 with a solid coach in his 2nd year in the program isn't unreasonable.
2) Movement towards the mean for both programs compared to their 2015 seasons. The 12-0 season is a bit of an outlier in Iowa football history as is a 5-7 season for Nebraska.
3) Tommy Armstrong could improve. By improve I mean cut down on the turnovers. Nothing suggests he is on his way to completing 60% of his passes, but he did throw interceptions at a higher frequency in 2015 than he did in 2014. He also threw a higher frequency of TD's in 2014 than he did in 2015. Going back to point #1, he'll be in his second year under Mike Riley who has a decent record working with QB's. I don't think it's unreasonable that he improves his interception rate by a percentage point which would cut his interception total by about 25%. That could be worth one additional win at least.
4) A 12-0 Iowa team didn't exactly blow away a 5-7 Nebraska team last year. It's not as if you watched the game and thought to yourself, "wow, one team looks a lot more talented than the other." They looked closer to even. Really what you said to yourself was "wow, one team makes less mistakes than the other." which was a microcosm of both teams 2015 season. Some of that is bad luck and some of that is carelessness. Cleaning up dumb mistakes is much easier to do than making players bigger, faster, stronger. It's not unreasonable to think Nebraska will clean up some of the careless play. If they do that, the difference between them and Iowa isn't very large.
 
I expect Nebby to be better and I would think more disciplined. They tossed away a few games last year with bad execution, lackluster play, and some bad coaching.

But right now I would expect Iowa to be favored at home and win this game if both sides were to play healthy.

I hate to say it but the hawks should have a nice winning streak against the other clowns from Lincoln.

It is a real rivalry now.
 
thefizz said:
I'm going to try and play devils advocate here and talk from the Nebraska point of view which I'm not advocating for but I'm between classes and bored so here I go.
1) Riley is a pretty solid coach. He had a winning record at Oregon State in about a decade and a half period which is no small feat. It would be much like having a decade of over .500 ball at Iowa State. Expecting a one to two win improvement over 2015 with a solid coach in his 2nd year in the program isn't unreasonable.
2) Movement towards the mean for both programs compared to their 2015 seasons. The 12-0 season is a bit of an outlier in Iowa football history as is a 5-7 season for Nebraska.
3) Tommy Armstrong could improve. By improve I mean cut down on the turnovers. Nothing suggests he is on his way to completing 60% of his passes, but he did throw interceptions at a higher frequency in 2015 than he did in 2014. He also threw a higher frequency of TD's in 2014 than he did in 2015. Going back to point #1, he'll be in his second year under Mike Riley who has a decent record working with QB's. I don't think it's unreasonable that he improves his interception rate by a percentage point which would cut his interception total by about 25%. That could be worth one additional win at least.
4) A 12-0 Iowa team didn't exactly blow away a 5-7 Nebraska team last year. It's not as if you watched the game and thought to yourself, "wow, one team looks a lot more talented than the other." They looked closer to even. Really what you said to yourself was "wow, one team makes less mistakes than the other." which was a microcosm of both teams 2015 season. Some of that is bad luck and some of that is carelessness. Cleaning up dumb mistakes is much easier to do than making players bigger, faster, stronger. It's not unreasonable to think Nebraska will clean up some of the careless play. If they do that, the difference between them and Iowa isn't very large.
Click to expand...

If it were that simple, some of KFs best season were under Tate and Stanzi. There were a lot of mistakes those years. Granted not 12-0 regular season.

Tommy Armstrong could be a good qb. He's never going to not make mistakes. A part of me likes to see Iowa play against him due to the errors. A part of me is concerned about controlling him.
 
Tommy is an interesting player. He isn't inconsistent from game to game or even half to half. He's inconsistent on a drive to drive or even play to play basis. I personally wouldn't feel great if he was Iowa's QB and I feel like Iowa's biggest edge vs. Nebraska is CJ over Tommy. Flip the QB's around and I think Nebraska would be the favorite against Iowa.
 
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