Got killed on 3D stocks, give me some new ones to recover with?

[Golfer]

I have a hard time believing that kind of market inefficiency exits and find it even more unbelievable that a retail trader could consistently profit on said arbitrage.

O Keefe is correct. The VXX rarely tracks the VIX index for long periods of time. It did however track fairly closely last gov't shut down. The VXX is an exchange traded note backed by Barclays, and their cost to carry eats up NAV. I trade the options. I also did a calender spread. So if I both sold and bought puts and calls, I'm not concerned with the underlying asset, just the price at expiration. In this case, the prices at the point when the government will be supposedly shutting down again. The puts and calls I sold will likely expire worthless, as 8 out of 10 options usually do. I'll keep the premium I collected for selling these. The calls and puts I bought are all predicated on crisis in Feb and March. We'll see. The VIX options don't track the VIX, they track the VIX futures contract for whatever month the option is purchased for. There are huge discrepancies all the time. That you can look up. The Feb futures contract is trading fairly high right now relative to the actual index.

Four different assets. VIX index, VIX futures contracts plural, VXX options and VIX options. I do it a lot, based on world events. My total cost in and out of the trade is about $5.00. 1-2% of X, less $5.00 is worth it to me. I think some CBOE fees of about .85 per contract on the options. .99 for the futures contract + fees.

Between November and Jan 1st I'm behind a computer a lot, so I am watching it all the time. Since I'm chained to a desk, I find the daily trades enjoyable during what is a very difficult time for me, which is to say, sitting at a desk. It's not for everyone. I enjoy it, and have had some success for several years. But I'm not a buy and hold guy. When I'm up a certain %, I take the gain. Everyone says they're up, and most everyone's portfolio is up this year, and the last several years. I don't care much what my portfolio does, I only care about selling at a gain or loss. Again, this philosophy isn't for everyone.

I'm not a professional, but I wouldn't categorize myself as a "retail investor" either. I put some time in to it.

 

[clicheusername3]

O Keefe is correct. The VXX rarely tracks the VIX index for long periods of time. It did however track fairly closely last gov't shut down. The VXX is an exchange traded note backed by Barclays, and their cost to carry eats up NAV. I trade the options. I also did a calender spread. So if I both sold and bought puts and calls, I'm not concerned with the underlying asset, just the price at expiration. In this case, the prices at the point when the government will be supposedly shutting down again. The puts and calls I sold will likely expire worthless, as 8 out of 10 options usually do. I'll keep the premium I collected for selling these. The calls and puts I bought are all predicated on crisis in Feb and March. We'll see. The VIX options don't track the VIX, they track the VIX futures contract for whatever month the option is purchased for. There are huge discrepancies all the time. That you can look up. The Feb futures contract is trading fairly high right now relative to the actual index.

Four different assets. VIX index, VIX futures contracts plural, VXX options and VIX options. I do it a lot, based on world events. My total cost in and out of the trade is about $5.00. 1-2% of X, less $5.00 is worth it to me. I think some CBOE fees of about .85 per contract on the options. .99 for the futures contract + fees.

Between November and Jan 1st I'm behind a computer a lot, so I am watching it all the time. Since I'm chained to a desk, I find the daily trades enjoyable during what is a very difficult time for me, which is to say, sitting at a desk. It's not for everyone. I enjoy it, and have had some success for several years. But I'm not a buy and hold guy. When I'm up a certain %, I take the gain. Everyone says they're up, and most everyone's portfolio is up this year, and the last several years. I don't care much what my portfolio does, I only care about selling at a gain or loss. Again, this philosophy isn't for everyone.

I'm not a professional, but I wouldn't categorize myself as a "retail investor" either. I put some time in to it.

That's what I'm talking about. Break a possibly complex endeavor down to its simplest tenet.

 

[Golfer]

Less money = simple, more money = not quite as simple, but simple for those of above average intelligence. Not all the time, but a lot of the time.

More importantly, the new Fallen Angel cigars are absolutely stunning in their complexity and bold richness (Insert smiley face here, since that simple task escapes my limited abilities)

 

[ohhawk]

From those that best know:

“ The four most dangerous words in investing are, It’s different this time.†-Sir John Templeton, legendary investor.

“ We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know.â€-Jhon Kenneth Galbraith.

“ You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right-and that’s the only thing that makes you right.†-Warren Buffett, the world’s most successful investor.

“ The only way to “beat an index†is to invest in something other than the index. Why would you, when the only source of long-term risk and return data is the index ?†-Hebner, Mark, Founder, Index Funds Advisors, Inc.

“ I have probably purchased fifty ‘hot tips’ in my career, maybe even more. When I put them all together, I know I am a net loser.†-Charles Schwab.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There is a reason why nearly all major national wirehouses & regional players moved years ago from a trading mentality to one of becoming financial planners. Market timing and moving in and out of stocks is largely a losing game.