Gatens injury blessing in disguise?? An optimistic outlook.

[HawkeyeRyno]

Usually a pessimist regarding Iowa basketball especially but am going to be optimistic with the new era of Iowa hoops. I'm sticking with it regardless of this Gatens injury and here's why...

First off, I had a teammate in HS have the same injury happen to his SHOOTING hand and was out 8 months before fully healthy again. Now with Matt injuring his non-shooting hand it could be less time. Either way he is most likely out for season.

This season is going to be rough. We may not get to 10 wins but at least be more exciting and at this point that is what this team and fanbase needs until a talent upgrade arrives and experience.

But think of this scenario with Matt redhirting - save him from wasting his junior year on a bad team, get some true freshmen quality playing time this season, get Fran's system understood, nice recruits for 2011/12 - 2012/13, become an experienced and deep team, veteran team in young Big Ten in 2012 & 2013.

If Fran can get some of those high profile recruits in 2012 they will get to play with Gatens along with some sophomores and juniors with experience.

This provides the opportunity to improve a year quicker than expected but the penalty is being a lot worse than expected NOW.

 

[AtownHawk1]

Usually a pessimist regarding Iowa basketball especially but am going to be optimistic with the new era of Iowa hoops. I'm sticking with it regardless of this Gatens injury and here's why...

First off, I had a teammate in HS have the same injury happen to his SHOOTING hand and was out 8 months before fully healthy again. Now with Matt injuring his non-shooting hand it could be less time. Either way he is most likely out for season.

This season is going to be rough. We may not get to 10 wins but at least be more exciting and at this point that is what this team needs until a talent upgrade arrives and experience.

But think of this scenario with Matt redhirting - save him from wasting his junior year on a bad team, get some true freshmen quality playing time this season, get Fran's system understood, nice recruits for 2011/12 - 2012/13, become an experienced and deep team, veteran team in young Big Ten in 2012 & 2013.

If Fran can get some of those high profile recruits in 2012 they will get to play with Gatens along with some sophomores and juniors with experience.

This provides the opportunity to improve a year quicker than expected but the penalty is being a lot worse than expected NOW.

Redshirting him has to be the way to go at this point. They better do that.

 

[Herkeynerd]

Check them out in person on Saturday if you'll be in town. 12:15 pm open practice. Scheduled early enough if you don't mind cutting your tailgate short. I think I'll check them out. Compared to last year's yawn fest this is going to be night and day. I've read a lot of stuff that says coach Caff has got them all slimmed down so they can run all game long. There already are some athletes on this team, they just haven't had the chance to flourish yet, under Lick's system it was never happening.

 

[clicheusername3]

I don't know if I can see him redshirting if he is going to be back prior to the B10 season starting. Using a redshirt on Gatens means wasting a red shirt on a younger player that probably needs it. The B10 season would set up for an absolute hammering if Gatens doesn't play, and that can kill a team and its young players just as much as getting the minutes can help them.

An 0-fer in the B10 season could be a recruitment killer and pretty much put the last nail in the coffin for Iowa BB.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

An 0-fer in the B10 season could be a recruitment killer and pretty much put the last nail in the coffin for Iowa BB.

I mentioned something like this in another thread, and am not sure if I was really onto anything so much as just wondering, but could this injury really put Fran behind the 8 ball, moreso than he already is in terms of being able to turn the program around?

I mean, without Gatens, what chance does this team have of winning even 10 games? If we have an awful season, something to the tune of 20+ losses again, what impact will that have on recruiting? If we can't recruit, it will be next to impossible to get this ship turned around.

It's hard to think that an injury to a single player could make or break a coach's tenure before he's even coached a single game, but this is about as close as it comes, IMO.

Or, maybe the rest of the guys will rally and the team will do ok. Maybe Fran can overcome a bad record in his first year anyway. Or maybe recruiting will be just as tough if we win 13-14 games this year as if we only win 8. Maybe we'll get lucky and Gatens won't be out as long as feared. I don't know. Just thinking as I type..

One thing is for sure, Fran and the team need better luck than this.

 

[SirJamaLot]

Gatens sounds like a great kid and teammate, I would bet he would rather start playing again in Jan. I agree a redshirt could be a positive but I hope the Hawks survive without him, and then get him back in Jan. and are that much stronger and deeper for the Big Ten Season. At least it is not a knee injury like Hummel for Purdue.

 

[clicheusername3]

@1977: another angle to look at would be the fans. Gatens is a hometown name player that is easy to get behind. Wihtout him, it would seem to me that the fan interest in a team that is getting killed would not be there. Watching "the next generation" or however you want to put it is not going to be good enough to get the fans in if the team is getting thumped every game.

 

[olivecourt]

I mentioned something like this in another thread, and am not sure if I was really onto anything so much as just wondering, but could this injury really put Fran behind the 8 ball, moreso than he already is in terms of being able to turn the program around?

You make several good points about how this makes his job tougher in terms of recruiting, but I can guarantee Fran is not behind the 8-ball in terms of job security. For better or worse, he's got 5 years to turn this thing around. We've already had four coaches in 11 years; we aren't going to make it five coaches unless Fran break the law... even then it would probably have to be a serious felony.

It sounds like Fran has been successful in turning programs around because he takes the long view. I would guess he is approaching things exactly the same way he was before Gatens was hurt.

 

[BuiltLikeWilt]

I'm for redshirting him , if it's gonna be Jan, Early Feb, makes sense what Ryno is saying.

 

[fsanford]

Usually a pessimist regarding Iowa basketball especially but am going to be optimistic with the new era of Iowa hoops. I'm sticking with it regardless of this Gatens injury and here's why...

First off, I had a teammate in HS have the same injury happen to his SHOOTING hand and was out 8 months before fully healthy again. Now with Matt injuring his non-shooting hand it could be less time. Either way he is most likely out for season.

This season is going to be rough. We may not get to 10 wins but at least be more exciting and at this point that is what this team and fanbase needs until a talent upgrade arrives and experience.

But think of this scenario with Matt redhirting - save him from wasting his junior year on a bad team, get some true freshmen quality playing time this season, get Fran's system understood, nice recruits for 2011/12 - 2012/13, become an experienced and deep team, veteran team in young Big Ten in 2012 & 2013.

If Fran can get some of those high profile recruits in 2012 they will get to play with Gatens along with some sophomores and juniors with experience.

This provides the opportunity to improve a year quicker than expected but the penalty is being a lot worse than expected NOW.

I guess the conundrum, your window to convince the 2012 kid to come play is a small one. And now you lose your best player, and could be looking at a 1 or 2 win big ten season. If Iowa tanks this season, I don't think that will help convince the high profile 2012 kids you mention to come to Iowa.

If he is ready for Big 10 play I would think you want to play him to try and win as many games possible to show progress.

 

[CAARHawk]

Fran doesn't take the long view of turning teams around. That is just silly. His teams get turned around quickly, because he was able to get good players at the lower levels. If he doesn't have the same success at Iowa with respect to recruiting, particularly with an upgraded facility, he will not last five years. This will particularly be the case if the Hoiberg experiment does not blow up.

That being said, Iowa's back court just got way faster. Cartright and Cully will now be playing together a lot. Look for the two ball handlers to push the ball like crazy. The problem is that neither is a great finisher. Which means the forwards need to be ready to hit the glass when these guys penetrate. Should be a lot of garbage points available.

 

[Husky28]

Every year we get a pleasant surprise out from one of the imcoming recruits. Last year, Payne played about what was expected and May (I believe) exceeded most people's expectations. If we see a marked improvement from the returning players, I think we could see a couple of the newcomers show more "skills" than expected, there's a good possibility that this team can make significant strides.

Losing Gatens will set them back some, but it's very possible that a couple of the returning players will be able to take advantage of a new coach and step up their game to next level. Brommer comes to mind (his improvement would be more in the lines of becoming a legit D-1 player), as well as Cole/Payne (I think May is a given with the new system) are players that could seize this opportunity to put new life into their game. That combined with a couple new players exceeding expectations, we might be pleasantly surprised. If you look at last year's incoming vs. this year's incoming, I think there is more potential talent in the 2010 class... at least on paper.

I believe Fran's style of basketball will be easier for new players to absorb and grasp, thus depending on experience becomes less of a factor and talent is allowed to be a part of the game vs. being bound up in a system of do's and don'ts... The biggest challenge (as always) for incoming players is getting the game to slow down for them and handling how physical it can be at the D-1 level. Just some thoughts...

 

[clicheusername3]

Fran doesn't take the long view of turning teams around. That is just silly. His teams get turned around quickly, because he was able to get good players at the lower levels. If he doesn't have the same success at Iowa with respect to recruiting, particularly with an upgraded facility, he will not last five years. This will particularly be the case if the Hoiberg experiment does not blow up.

That being said, Iowa's back court just got way faster. Cartright and Cully will now be playing together a lot. Look for the two ball handlers to push the ball like crazy. The problem is that neither is a great finisher. Which means the forwards need to be ready to hit the glass when these guys penetrate. Should be a lot of garbage points available.

The backcourt also probably just got about 5+ more turnovers per game as well then.

 

[hawkfan2679]

The backcourt also probably just got about 5+ more turnovers per game as well then.

Can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs...

 

[olivecourt]

Fran doesn't take the long view of turning teams around. That is just silly. His teams get turned around quickly, because he was able to get good players at the lower levels. If he doesn't have the same success at Iowa with respect to recruiting, particularly with an upgraded facility, he will not last five years. This will particularly be the case if the Hoiberg experiment does not blow up.

I'm sorry, but if you think Iowa would fire Fran for any cause other than committing a crime or a major NCAA violation in the next 4-5 years, you're way off base. We are not going to fire a fourth coach in less than 13 years, and Gary Barta is not going to get to hire a third basketball coach. If we don't give Fran every benefit of the doubt in the world, we'll never get anyone good to come coach here. Why would they?

You may not like it, but Iowa could win 8 games this year and next year and Fran would still be the coach. That's just the reality of the situation we have put ourselves in. It especially has nothing to do with Iowa State or Fred Hoiberg.

 

[RADMAN]

Usually a pessimist regarding Iowa basketball especially but am going to be optimistic with the new era of Iowa hoops. I'm sticking with it regardless of this Gatens injury and here's why...

First off, I had a teammate in HS have the same injury happen to his SHOOTING hand and was out 8 months before fully healthy again. Now with Matt injuring his non-shooting hand it could be less time. Either way he is most likely out for season.

This season is going to be rough. We may not get to 10 wins but at least be more exciting and at this point that is what this team and fanbase needs until a talent upgrade arrives and experience.

But think of this scenario with Matt redhirting - save him from wasting his junior year on a bad team, get some true freshmen quality playing time this season, get Fran's system understood, nice recruits for 2011/12 - 2012/13, become an experienced and deep team, veteran team in young Big Ten in 2012 & 2013.

If Fran can get some of those high profile recruits in 2012 they will get to play with Gatens along with some sophomores and juniors with experience.

This provides the opportunity to improve a year quicker than expected but the penalty is being a lot worse than expected NOW.

My only question is that why are we assuming he is out for the year or even a long period of time when there hasn't been and official announcement? Did I miss something? Before we cry wolf, let wait until a official announcement is made and then we can make all kinds of suggestions on how the coaches should handle the situation. I personally love the guy, but he is not irreplacable. I think we will be pleasantly suprised even if he is out for the year.

 

[clicheusername3]

I'm sorry, but if you think Iowa would fire Fran for any cause other than committing a crime or a major NCAA violation in the next 4-5 years, you're way off base. We are not going to fire a fourth coach in less than 13 years, and Gary Barta is not going to get to hire a third basketball coach. If we don't give Fran every benefit of the doubt in the world, we'll never get anyone good to come coach here. Why would they?

You may not like it, but Iowa could win 8 games this year and next year and Fran would still be the coach. That's just the reality of the situation we have put ourselves in. It especially has nothing to do with Iowa State or Fred Hoiberg.

Or you could look at as we fired 3 coaches in quick succession why wouldn't we fire a 4th? If the fans don't come back(which will happen if there are 2 straight 8 loss seasons), and there isn't much prospect for the very next season after the 2 8 win seasons(which there won't be, teams don't just jump up to being in contention for the post season after 2 seasons of 8 wins) the university won't be able to keep him.

 

[olivecourt]

Or you could look at as we fired 3 coaches in quick succession why wouldn't we fire a 4th? If the fans don't come back(which will happen if there are 2 straight 8 loss seasons), and there isn't much prospect for the very next season after the 2 8 win seasons(which there won't be, teams don't just jump up to being in contention for the post season after 2 seasons of 8 wins) the university won't be able to keep him.

Because then we have to find a new athletic director too.

We are still paying Todd Lickliter's $2.4 million buyout. Fran's contract is 6 years with a $550,000 buyout per year.

I'm not saying I like it; I'm not saying I think we'll win 8 games or less this year or next. I'm saying that unless Fran McCaffery is caught with a dead girl or a live boy, he's the coach at Iowa through 2014.

 

[big10fan]

i really think this year is a wasted year anyways, so if he'll miss more than half the year, why not plan a redshirt and burn it if he can get back sooner? i know many will disagree, but i think fran will be able to land the bigger recruits regardless of if we win 8 or 14 games. give him a full year to recruit, and we'll see what he can do.

 

[HawkeyeMike23]

I mentioned something like this in another thread, and am not sure if I was really onto anything so much as just wondering, but could this injury really put Fran behind the 8 ball, moreso than he already is in terms of being able to turn the program around?

I mean, without Gatens, what chance does this team have of winning even 10 games? If we have an awful season, something to the tune of 20+ losses again, what impact will that have on recruiting? If we can't recruit, it will be next to impossible to get this ship turned around.

It's hard to think that an injury to a single player could make or break a coach's tenure before he's even coached a single game, but this is about as close as it comes, IMO.

Or, maybe the rest of the guys will rally and the team will do ok. Maybe Fran can overcome a bad record in his first year anyway. Or maybe recruiting will be just as tough if we win 13-14 games this year as if we only win 8. Maybe we'll get lucky and Gatens won't be out as long as feared. I don't know. Just thinking as I type..

One thing is for sure, Fran and the team need better luck than this.

I don't think it will really have that big of an impact on recruiting. Even with a healthy Gatens this team wasn't going to be close to contending for a B10 title. Maybe we go 3-15 instead of 6-12 now, I don't think that will change of the selling points Fran is using in recruiting. Plus if he sits out the year and comes back next season, you're looking at a much improved second year record and then you can start selling the progress the program is making.