storminspank
Justin VanLaere
Gasaway (one of the original Basketball Prospectus writers/creators) puts out his final Tues Truths, it's a good one.
For those unfamiliar, Gasaway is one of the pioneers (along w/ Ken Pomeroy) in bringing tempo-free stats to the mainstream. He is moving to a gig w/ ESPN, so that will be a huge bummer for BP.
Anyway, I Tweeted this out last night, but wanted to throw it on here -
check out the part about Indiana's resurgence, but also the mention of Iowa and the cursed 3 seed.
Basketball Prospectus | Unfiltered
Here's the Big Ten section:
Big Ten: It may be impossible for any program to duplicate Indiana 2010-13
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Indiana 14-4 65.7 1.13 0.98 +0.15
2. Michigan 12-6 63.3 1.12 1.02 +0.10
3. Michigan St. 13-5 63.7 1.06 0.97 +0.09
4. Wisconsin 12-6 59.7 0.99 0.91 +0.08
5. Ohio St. 13-5 62.3 1.03 0.95 +0.08
6. Iowa 9-9 64.9 1.00 0.97 +0.03
7. Minnesota 8-10 61.2 1.04 1.04 0.00
8. Illinois 8-10 64.1 1.00 1.02 -0.02
9. Purdue 8-10 64.6 0.98 1.04 -0.06
10. Nebraska 5-13 61.2 0.92 1.07 -0.15
11. Penn St. 2-16 64.5 0.91 1.07 -0.16
12. Northwestern 4-14 59.6 0.93 1.11 -0.18 AVG. 62.9 1.01
The path navigated by the Hoosiers over the past four seasons is going to be exceptionally difficult for any other program to repeat, not that any program would want to try. Said path starts here: 1) Be possibly the worst major-conference team in the nation. That’s where Indiana was in 2010.
Presenting the Hoosiers’ in-conference efficiency margins in each of the past four seasons:
2010 -0.19
2011 -0.12
2012 +0.05
2013 +0.15
Heck, forget 2010. In November of last season I was still being asked whether I thought IU had any shot at all at making the 2012 NCAA tournament. When I picked Indiana to win at home against Kentucky that December I was told I was crazy — by Indiana fans. It’s easy to forget now, but that UK game really was this program’s jeweled pivot, and no one has thought the same way about the Hoosiers ever since.
Fun with home/road splits! See below, way down there under the West Coast. Indiana’s per-possession scoring margin on the road in Big Ten play (+0.14) would have been good for second place in this season’s actual league (see above). These guys looked very normal at Illinois and Minnesota, and, goodness knows, at home against Ohio State, but every team in D-I has looked very normal at some point this season. Make no mistake, the Hoosiers are tough.
Most statistically aberrant behavior in 2013 B1G play: Infrequency with which Wisconsin opponents attempted threes: 23.6 percent of FGAs.
Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois are dancing. The Illini will carry the crushing burden of the Negative Efficiency Margin Curse, to wit: No team that’s been outscored in conference play has done much of anything since West Virginia came within a whisker of the 2005 Final Four. Perhaps that’s because if you’re outscored during conference play you’re not very good at basketball.
Meanwhile Iowa still lurks on the fringes of this whole field of 68 thing, but the Hawkeyes are likely in a line where teams like Virginia, Ole Miss, Baylor, and possibly Middle Tennessee are ahead of them. Fran McCaffrey now says Iowa’s calamitous non-conference schedule was a conscious choice and that his team needed to learn what it feels like to win. Fine. Now that the team knows what it feels like to win, it would be really nice to parlay that into an actual win in the quarters Friday night against Michigan State (assuming of course the Hawkeyes successfully navigate their way past Northwestern on Thursday). The Spartans are the No. 3 seed, and I’ve made no secret of my fear that the 3-line at the B1G tournament is cursed. (Ask Eric Gordon about Blake Hoffarber sometime.) You sit around the hotel and/or arena and you see no fewer than seven entire games transpire before you even take the floor for the first time. It’s just bad karma. Maybe Iowa can benefit.
For those unfamiliar, Gasaway is one of the pioneers (along w/ Ken Pomeroy) in bringing tempo-free stats to the mainstream. He is moving to a gig w/ ESPN, so that will be a huge bummer for BP.
Anyway, I Tweeted this out last night, but wanted to throw it on here -
check out the part about Indiana's resurgence, but also the mention of Iowa and the cursed 3 seed.
Basketball Prospectus | Unfiltered
Here's the Big Ten section:
Big Ten: It may be impossible for any program to duplicate Indiana 2010-13
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Indiana 14-4 65.7 1.13 0.98 +0.15
2. Michigan 12-6 63.3 1.12 1.02 +0.10
3. Michigan St. 13-5 63.7 1.06 0.97 +0.09
4. Wisconsin 12-6 59.7 0.99 0.91 +0.08
5. Ohio St. 13-5 62.3 1.03 0.95 +0.08
6. Iowa 9-9 64.9 1.00 0.97 +0.03
7. Minnesota 8-10 61.2 1.04 1.04 0.00
8. Illinois 8-10 64.1 1.00 1.02 -0.02
9. Purdue 8-10 64.6 0.98 1.04 -0.06
10. Nebraska 5-13 61.2 0.92 1.07 -0.15
11. Penn St. 2-16 64.5 0.91 1.07 -0.16
12. Northwestern 4-14 59.6 0.93 1.11 -0.18 AVG. 62.9 1.01
The path navigated by the Hoosiers over the past four seasons is going to be exceptionally difficult for any other program to repeat, not that any program would want to try. Said path starts here: 1) Be possibly the worst major-conference team in the nation. That’s where Indiana was in 2010.
Presenting the Hoosiers’ in-conference efficiency margins in each of the past four seasons:
2010 -0.19
2011 -0.12
2012 +0.05
2013 +0.15
Heck, forget 2010. In November of last season I was still being asked whether I thought IU had any shot at all at making the 2012 NCAA tournament. When I picked Indiana to win at home against Kentucky that December I was told I was crazy — by Indiana fans. It’s easy to forget now, but that UK game really was this program’s jeweled pivot, and no one has thought the same way about the Hoosiers ever since.
Fun with home/road splits! See below, way down there under the West Coast. Indiana’s per-possession scoring margin on the road in Big Ten play (+0.14) would have been good for second place in this season’s actual league (see above). These guys looked very normal at Illinois and Minnesota, and, goodness knows, at home against Ohio State, but every team in D-I has looked very normal at some point this season. Make no mistake, the Hoosiers are tough.
Most statistically aberrant behavior in 2013 B1G play: Infrequency with which Wisconsin opponents attempted threes: 23.6 percent of FGAs.
Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois are dancing. The Illini will carry the crushing burden of the Negative Efficiency Margin Curse, to wit: No team that’s been outscored in conference play has done much of anything since West Virginia came within a whisker of the 2005 Final Four. Perhaps that’s because if you’re outscored during conference play you’re not very good at basketball.
Meanwhile Iowa still lurks on the fringes of this whole field of 68 thing, but the Hawkeyes are likely in a line where teams like Virginia, Ole Miss, Baylor, and possibly Middle Tennessee are ahead of them. Fran McCaffrey now says Iowa’s calamitous non-conference schedule was a conscious choice and that his team needed to learn what it feels like to win. Fine. Now that the team knows what it feels like to win, it would be really nice to parlay that into an actual win in the quarters Friday night against Michigan State (assuming of course the Hawkeyes successfully navigate their way past Northwestern on Thursday). The Spartans are the No. 3 seed, and I’ve made no secret of my fear that the 3-line at the B1G tournament is cursed. (Ask Eric Gordon about Blake Hoffarber sometime.) You sit around the hotel and/or arena and you see no fewer than seven entire games transpire before you even take the floor for the first time. It’s just bad karma. Maybe Iowa can benefit.
