Game Preview, Prediction: NIU Dangerous Opponent for Hawkeyes
- Thread starter RobHowe
- Start date
Agree. The best way to negate a quick (but light) pass rusher is to run the ball right at him.
The problem with that is if you watch his film, he has the ability to pancake much bigger offensive linemen including Nebraska's left tackle.
The key words there are "Nebraska's left tackle".
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
NIU is 57 in RPI
What some are saying us that a solid P5 program having weeks to preoare for the loss of several players is going to struggle with the 57th ranked team. There are only 73 teams rsnked lower.
The game is at Iowa.
NIU has key losses of players themselves.
What you really are aaying is that KF isnt a very good coach.
This is s good test to see where KF really is.
This is no trap game. This is the real deal.
If Iowa is a good program hsving weeks to prep non starters is adequate if the talent is there.
If Iowa loses we have a solid answer about the state of the program. If this was a team wuth a new qb playing at Dekalb the storyline would be different.
NIIU starts 2 sophs and a Frosh on O and have 2 each on 2nd team.
The 2nd team D has 4 frosh and a soph.
On D they are experienced starting on D but drops off.
What some are saying us that a solid P5 program having weeks to preoare for the loss of several players is going to struggle with the 57th ranked team. There are only 73 teams rsnked lower.
The game is at Iowa.
NIU has key losses of players themselves.
What you really are aaying is that KF isnt a very good coach.
This is s good test to see where KF really is.
This is no trap game. This is the real deal.
If Iowa is a good program hsving weeks to prep non starters is adequate if the talent is there.
If Iowa loses we have a solid answer about the state of the program. If this was a team wuth a new qb playing at Dekalb the storyline would be different.
NIIU starts 2 sophs and a Frosh on O and have 2 each on 2nd team.
The 2nd team D has 4 frosh and a soph.
On D they are experienced starting on D but drops off.
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kameltoez102
Well-Known Member
From the years I have watched Iowa they shouldn't underestimate any opponent or take anyone lightly. They have a tendency to play down to teams and also a tendency to come out flat at home on some of these games. If they can control the turnovers and break tendencies they will win.
A 60ish RPI team beating a 20ish RPI team is not unusual. 10 pt underdogs win about 25-30% of the time. Under Carey, NIU has played 5 games vs. B1G, beating Iowa, Purdue, NW, and Nebraska and losing to #1 ranked OSU by 7. A loss in this game is not a final referendum on the team this year, or on KF's overall coaching acumen.
A loss would be frustrating and disappointing, and it would not be a good omen, but this is certainly not the Sisters of the Poor we are talking about. Conversely, a win, especially a convincing one, will mean a lot against this opponent.
AreWeThereYet
Well-Known Member
I would say it is less a tendency to play down to opponents as it is a result of the type of game Iowa plays. Iowa's combination of ball control offense, and bend but don't break defense are designed to keep the score close. It works both ways. It keeps Iowa in games, but often keeps lesser opponents close.
That is an oversimplification. Iowa is also very opportunistic on both side of the ball, creating turnovers on defense and breaking big plays on offense. Last year, if anything big plays on offense worked better than ball control. The line didn't have much push and the offensive couldn't stay on schedule in any sustained way.
Having both starting offensive tackles out for the game presents the same situation as last year. They are going to have trouble staying on schedule and will need to manufacture some big plays to get it in the endzone.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
So you really dont think Iowa is strong.
Another way of thinking about it:
Stoops lost as a 30 pt favorite last year, is he a bad coach? He perhaps coached a bad game, but that is different than being a bad coach.
Chris Peterson lost as a 17.5 pt favorite last year, is he a bad coach?
We could go on and on, upsets happen. But hopefully not on Saturday to the Hawks.
I don't Iowa is a sure-fire top 10, national championship contender. That type of a team would not have to worry about NIU that much (ignoring that fact that they took #1 OSU down to the wire). I think Iowa is a legit top-20 team, and I am excited to see if they can prove they are more. A top 20 team absolutely needs to take a top 60 team seriously and could lose with some bad luck or a bad game-plan.
If Iowa loses the game, it will be due to some combination of poor planning (coaches), poor play (players), and poor luck. But none of those things leads directly to either, 1) KF is a bad coach, or 2) the 2018 team is a bad team.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Im thinking that if it is because of poor coaching or poor play then maybe he isnt a good coach. Plenty of time to get ready. If you cant get ready for this team with some much time it becomes a conclusion at least until he beats Wisky or PSU. Then we are back to wondering what he is. Thats why I think this game will likely show who he is.
Personally looking for a solid win.
NoBeer
Well-Known Member
The constant excuse making about how good a MAC team is is like the most Iowa fan thing to do ever. We should win this game period.
ModebaSan
Well-Known Member
The real difference that some of you are missing is that BF is calling the plays not KF. I believe BF is more aggressive in his play calling than KF ever was. The game will start out slowly but the Hawks will wear them out in the second half. Not even close.
Iowa 42 NIU 9
Iowa 42 NIU 9
You can't really be so simplistic as to think one poorly coached game makes one a poor coach, can you (see Stoops and Peterson examples in my post above)?
HawkeyeDenis
Well-Known Member
Hearing a lot about their starting DE. Hearing about Iowa should really be worried about him! Iowa's going into the game with some untested players. Iowa has had a fall camp to prep these guys.
Northern Illinois needs to be concerned about Iowa's defensive ends. Iowa has guys to rotate in and out without a big drop off in production.
Let them stack the box against the run. This will be just another Saturday to Iowa. Team's like to make Iowa pass. Roll out Stanley to Fant. Double Fant and Hockenson is open. Smith-Marsette and Easley are good options. The offense's job Saturday is to keep NIU's offense on the bench and score some points. I expect Iowa to struggle in the first half. Make some adjustment's in the second half and roll on to victory number 144!
They want to use their Nebraska win to motivate let them. Iowa isn't Nebraska.
Go Hawks!
Northern Illinois needs to be concerned about Iowa's defensive ends. Iowa has guys to rotate in and out without a big drop off in production.
Let them stack the box against the run. This will be just another Saturday to Iowa. Team's like to make Iowa pass. Roll out Stanley to Fant. Double Fant and Hockenson is open. Smith-Marsette and Easley are good options. The offense's job Saturday is to keep NIU's offense on the bench and score some points. I expect Iowa to struggle in the first half. Make some adjustment's in the second half and roll on to victory number 144!
They want to use their Nebraska win to motivate let them. Iowa isn't Nebraska.
Go Hawks!
What do you want to talk about here, reality or expectations? Because I am talking reality, and I have laid out all of the reasons why if Iowa is who the experts think they are, an upset is not highly unlikely. Match these teams up 10 times, Iowa probably wins 8, but NIU could absolutely catch us on one of those 20% days. That is not an excuse, it is the reality of the situation.
If you think Iowa should never lose to this team, then you feel that Iowa should be a 20+ point favorite (based on historical betting odds, 20+ pt favorites win about 95% of the time). How many teams in the nation would be 20+ point favorites vs. this NIU team (#59 RPI)? My guess would be the top 10, and that is about it.
So your expectation is that Iowa should always be a top-10 caliber team. You are certainly entitled to that expectation. That is what Wisconsin has been recently, and it would be great if we could flip the tables on them and take that mantle among B1G West teams. But that expectation certainly does not match the reality of Iowa's historical record.
I look for more creative play calling too. I think BF will take more shots downfield and be less predictable. We have weapons all over the place for him to be creative with. I don't think we'll be a run on 1st and 2nd down throw on 3rd kinda team all the time. I think we'll see more passing to setup the run. I love using draw plays. I wish we'd have seen more of them for Wadley during his time. By playing the game more that way your running game becomes more efficient and effective I think anyway..
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Yes I can. He's had the chance to recover from the last go around. Plenty of time to get this down. Yes most teams get upset. NDSU should be good for 5 years.
Only way Hawks lose is if the QB goes down or Iowa tries to snowplow only and it isn't working and KF hangs onto it too long.
That's not getting upset by a weaker team. That's just being stupid. I think/hope KF is smarter than that. Those young guys have had time to go against Hawk D. Certainly that is pretty good practice.