Future Expectations

H

Hawkshaw

Member
Going forward, what level of success can Iowa football fans expect from their team?

Considering Iowa's resources (coaches, facilities, geography, history, fan support, money, etc), what should our realistic expectations be on a yearly basis?

I have always felt that Iowa, under both Fry and Ferentz, should go to a bowl game every year. Anything less is a failure. Iowa should contend for a Big Ten Championship two out of every five years, and win/share a Big Ten Championship every five years. In that respect, I think Ferentz has met expectations.

But now, with 12 teams in the Big Ten, in addition to a Championship game, what should we expect?

I would be happy if Iowa could play in the Championship game once every four years and win it once every 8 to 10 years. Or is that me being in the "poor Ol' Iowa" camp?

I would be very content, and consider Iowa football in a very good place, if we could beat both Nebraska and Michigan once every two years (50%), beat Michigan State and Purdue 2 out of every 3 years (66%), and Minnesota and Northwestern 4 out of every 5 years (80%). If we could do that, I think we would be a perennial top 20 team, and an occasional top 10 team. I am satisfied with that. It would be nice to be ranked #1 again, sometime. That was my greatest experience as a Hawk fan.

To win a National Championship at Iowa is not realistic. I just can't see us ever going 14-0. It could happen, but it would require tons and tons of luck.
 
Go into the last week of the season against Nebraska with the chance that a win puts them in the Big 10 championship game.

Less then that is a failure.
 
Hawkshaw said:
Going forward, what level of success can Iowa football fans expect from their team?

Considering Iowa's resources (coaches, facilities, geography, history, fan support, money, etc), what should our realistic expectations be on a yearly basis?

I have always felt that Iowa, under both Fry and Ferentz, should go to a bowl game every year. Anything less is a failure. Iowa should contend for a Big Ten Championship two out of every five years, and win/share a Big Ten Championship every five years. In that respect, I think Ferentz has met expectations.

But now, with 12 teams in the Big Ten, in addition to a Championship game, what should we expect?

I would be happy if Iowa could play in the Championship game once every four years and win it once every 8 to 10 years. Or is that me being in the "poor Ol' Iowa" camp?

I would be very content, and consider Iowa football in a very good place, if we could beat both Nebraska and Michigan once every two years (50%), beat Michigan State and Purdue 2 out of every 3 years (66%), and Minnesota and Northwestern 4 out of every 5 years (80%). If we could do that, I think we would be a perennial top 20 team, and an occasional top 10 team. I am satisfied with that. It would be nice to be ranked #1 again, sometime. That was my greatest experience as a Hawk fan.

To win a National Championship at Iowa is not realistic. I just can't see us ever going 14-0. It could happen, but it would require tons and tons of luck.
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Is this so you never get let down? Aim low so you can always be happy.
 
From this point on I am lowering my expectations and will only expect the University of Iowa to field a football game and play 12 games a season. Anything above that, that'll be nice. That way I insulate myself from disappointment. :(
 
OUTofTOWNHAWK said:
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Is this so you never get let down? Aim low so you can always be happy.
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My expectations are based on our history over the last 30 years.

I don't think I am aiming low. After all, I am demanding that we beat Northwestern regularly again. How can one expect to win Big Ten titles and National Championships when we lose to the Mildcats 5 out of 6 times?

Once we start beating the teams we should beat, only then, can we start thinking about the next level.

If we want to move up to Ohio State/Michigan status, we need two things to happen:

(1) Ames has to get really bad again, so that we have zero intrastate competition. (If the Big XII breaks up, I think that is quite possible). We can increase the size of Kinnick to 90,000 and that should help us keep up with the "traditional powers" from a money standpoint.

(2) We need to beat Nebraska regularly, right away, and not let them become a powerhouse again. If we don't, then Iowa kids like Roger Craig, Trev Alberts and Kyle Vanden Bosch go to Nebraska, and we become 2nd tier.
 
BSpringsteen said:
Go into the last week of the season against Nebraska with the chance that a win puts them in the Big 10 championship game.

Less then that is a failure.
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This. With our division, we should be either finishing 1 or 2 every season. Anything less is a failure, plain and simple. Beyond that, I'd expect us to win the conference WAY more often than once every 8-10 years. To put that in perspective, that would deliver 2 consecutive groups of students who would enter and graduate without being on campus together between championships. Way more than unacceptable. We should be in the championship game no less than once every 3 years. We should play in a January bowl every year, with one BCS game every 3 years.

As long as we as a fanbase are satisfied winning the conference once per decade, we'll make it easy for the team to play at that level. But it's also unrealistic to demand a BCS bowl every year with a BCS championship berth every 4 or 5 seasons. My expectations have more to do with who we play in our division than anything else.
 
My expectations are that Iowa will be 3-5, 4-4, or 5-3 in the conference most seasons.

7 times in KF's 12 years as head coach Iowa has finished .500 (4-4) in the B10 or 1 game away from .500 (3-5 or 5-3). '00, '01, '03, '05, '07, '08, '10.

I expect this type of pattern to continue. It's been going for 12 years and KF is not going to tweak things now.

KF has shown the ability for great B10 seasons like '02, '04, & '09 so it wouldn't surprise me to see Iowa get to the CCG occasionally but I expect Michigan & Nebraska to control the division regularly. With OSU as the likely CCG opponent for Iowa if they get there, I don't expect a B10 conference championship. Kirk has not shown the ability to beat OSU.
 
Xerxes said:
My expectations are that Iowa will be 3-5, 4-4, or 5-3 in the conference most seasons.

7 times in KF's 12 years as head coach Iowa has finished .500 (4-4) in the B10 or 1 game away from .500 (3-5 or 5-3). '00, '01, '03, '05, '07, '08, '10.

I expect this type of pattern to continue. It's been going for 12 years and KF is not going to tweak things now.

KF has shown the ability for great B10 seasons like '02, '04, & '09 so it wouldn't surprise me to see Iowa get to the CCG occasionally but I expect Michigan & Nebraska to control the division regularly. With OSU as the likely CCG opponent for Iowa if they get there, I don't expect a B10 conference championship. Kirk has not shown the ability to beat OSU.
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Why do you think Michigan will control the division? They were last in the conference last year and they play 0 defense. Even with Denard putting up monster yardage numbers, they're 3-5 in conference. I'm not trying to flame or anything, I just really scratch my head when I hear people talking about Michigan returning to prominence. As long as RichRod is the head coach, they'll put up 45 points a game but give up 50.

Nebraska I understand KINDA, but even then not really since they're moving from an inferior division in an inferior conference to the Big Ten. No reason to think we can't have our hands on the lever of the division as well.
 
I honestly believe that Iowa should win the division next year. Nebraska's schedule is a killer. Michigan won't be much better and Iowa has them at home.

The question is, can we beat Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue and Indiana?

We should be 7-0 in the Big Ten heading into Lincoln.

But, we should have been 6-0 this year when Ohio State came to town.
 
To be playing Nebraska with a chance to go to Big 10 Championship game at least 2 times in a 5 year period.

To make a bowl game in 4 of every 5 years.

To make finish at .500 or better in Big 10 play at least 3 times in a 5 year period.
 
8-4 next year, + or - a game. Iowa loses a 3 year starter in Stanzi, DJK and Reisner as well. I know a ton of people are proclaiming that Vandy is the next John Elway but I need to see more, and he's losing a lot of firepower to throw to as well. ARob will be back, Coker will be stronger and faster........plus know the playbook. Hopefully Jewel will be 100% recovered and is fine.

Defensively, the line will be hit hard. As we know by now, so goes the DL......so goes the defense. Learned that in 2005. Maybe not the passing game so much, that's more the LBs and DBs but it's stopping the run on defense has always been crucial.

most importantly, what have the coaches done to address this year's mistakes?
 
briankaldenberg said:
To be playing Nebraska with a chance to go to Big 10 Championship game at least 2 times in a 5 year period.

To make a bowl game in 4 of every 5 years.

To make finish at .500 or better in Big 10 play at least 3 times in a 5 year period.
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Wow. I mean if you told me this was the next 5 years at Iowa, I would tell you I wanted a new direction for the program.

I mean, kudos to you for being happy with that, it's just not for me.
 
MidnightBlueSix said:
Why do you think Michigan will control the division? They were last in the conference last year and they play 0 defense. Even with Denard putting up monster yardage numbers, they're 3-5 in conference. I'm not trying to flame or anything, I just really scratch my head when I hear people talking about Michigan returning to prominence. As long as RichRod is the head coach, they'll put up 45 points a game but give up 50.

Nebraska I understand KINDA, but even then not really since they're moving from an inferior division in an inferior conference to the Big Ten. No reason to think we can't have our hands on the lever of the division as well.
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I'd love to sit here and say Iowa is going to run this divison or at least be on equal footing as Nebraska & Michigan but I just have to remove heart and look at years of facts. Iowa is going to have to win at least 6 conference games to have a chance at the division. That's happened 3 times in 12 years. And 6 wins only gets it if you happen to own all tiebreakers. Realistically, Iowa is going to probably need 7 wins to get to the CCG. That's a difficult thing for Iowa to do and something that doesn't happen often. 3 times in 20 years. 1991, 2002, 2004.

I think Michigan will control the division because they are Michigan. Their name does a majority of their recruiting. If Rich stays and gets an average DC, that is all they'll need with that offense. In fact, they are an average DC away from being downright scary. If RR gets canned, they'll have elite coaches waiting to take over. I'm not sure if it happens next year but in the long run, I think Michigan is in the driver's seat.

Nebraska is in a little tougher spot because their home state doesn't have the talent of Michigan but their coach is really building a good program right now. Tough defense, strong running game and a QB that isn't going anywhere for 3 years.

Hey, I hope I'm wrong. I'd love it. I'm not saying Iowa can't rise up and win the division occasionally. Kirk has proven that he can win a confernce crown, in this case a division championship. However, I don't think they'll beat OSU anyway. I expect OSU to rule their division until Paterno retires. They've won 6 in a row, no reason to expect them to stop. OSU compared to Iowa is simply on a totally different planet regarding their football programs.
 
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