Fun NCAA Tourney Simulation

[SmalltownHawk]

https://www.sportsinsights.com/bracket/

Check out the percentages on the side. The Hawkeyes are the CHAMPION 10% of the time for their simulations, the highest!

 

[99topdawg]

First time I did this, ISU lost to Yale in the first round and Iowa over MSU in the finals. Could it be that good of a tourney? It would be like the kid from Animal House that had the girl fly through his bedroom window. "Thank you God!"

 

[WindsorHawk]

I ran it 8 times...twice with each rating system. Iowa was in the finals 5 times...winning twice.

 

[mopkins]

Ugh...first time I ran this thing it had Iowa losing to Iowa State and then Iowa State losing to Oregon in the National Championship. Time to go puke out of my mouth and butt.

2nd time I ran it Iowa State won it all

3rd time I ran it Iowa won it all.

Is the creator of this thing from Iowa? How does Iowa have a 2% better chance of winning it all than Oklahoma?

 

[mrolympia]

lol - 15 seed UAB just made it to the finals in one of my sims

 

[mrolympia]

also in my sims Iowa rarely gets past the elite 8. I had to run 12 sims before they won the NC over kansas.

 

[mopkins]

Iowa over Villanova in the Final 4 and then beating Kansas in the National title game. I'm going to stop running the sims right there and hope for the best.

 

[mrolympia]

I think it should be an official rule that once Iowa wins the NC title in the sim, a person has to stop

 

[mopkins]

It does give Iowa a 72.4% chance of making the Sweet 16 and a 30.6% chance of making the Final Four. Who had those odds coming into the season?

 

[mopkins]

I think it should be an official rule that once Iowa wins the NC title in the sim, a person has to stop

Agreed, I'm never running it again. In an ideal world Iowa would have beaten iowa State on the road to the national title, but I'm not sure my body, mind and nerves could handle that matchup, so I dont think i want it to happen

 

[mopkins]

I did enjoy the Iowa vs Hampton 1 vs 16 matchup. Iowa has a 100% chance of winning that game it says. Bet Iowa State thought that too back in 2001....

 

[WindsorHawk]

Iowa State will have to make the Sweet 16 to have any chance of playing Iowa. Iowa is likely destined for Des Moines and Iowa State can't play in Des Moines. Iowa has a 72.4% chance of making the Sweet 16. What are Iowa State's chances?

 

[mopkins]

Iowa State will have to make the Sweet 16 to have any chance of playing Iowa. Iowa is likely destined for Des Moines and Iowa State can't play in Des Moines. Iowa has a 72.4% chance of making the Sweet 16. What are Iowa State's chances?

ISU's chances are 46.2%...according to this website. I'm guessing this thing will fluctuate drastically day after day as the games are played out.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Confused. How can it have Iowa every time at 10% but only have them in the Final Four once or a few times?

 

[mopkins]

Confused. How can it have Iowa every time at 10% but only have them in the Final Four once or a few times?

Well you can see their odds of making the Final Four are 30.6% so 3 out of every 10 times (roughly) you should see Iowa in the Final Four.

 

[Hawknigh]

Why does each simulation have Iowa State as the #4 seed in the Midwest? For the last two years as #3 seed, they have not played in the Midwest?

 

[99topdawg]

FYI--They have updated the brackets on the site to align with Lunardi's Bracketology. Iowa still a 1 seed, but no longer has the highest percentage.