JoeyLabasForPresident
Well-Known Member
The line has shifted to -3.5 clowntown. My money says late breaking money with be on the good guys.
For no good reason
- Thread starter Wundershozen
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hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
Makes me ill to say it, but ISU by double digits.
thedukeofearl
Well-Known Member
thedukeofearl
Well-Known Member
Hawkboys
Well-Known Member
Besides good punting and returns for the Hawks, ISU is always ready to muff one late in the game
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
I heard one of those professional gambler with the 1=800 number guys on the radio this morning in Omaha, and he said he thought the wrong team was favored and he has Iowa winning by 3. One dude's opinion, but I was happy to hear it!
I thought the defensive line looked the best it's looked in quite some time. I mean, I know it was Albany. And a better quarterback could have made some of those hurried throws, but certainly not all or even 'most' of them. What did some opposing coach call the Iowa offense back a few years ago? "6 Seconds of Hell"? That's what it looked like again. Not that they are going to sack you every snap. Not that they are going to tackle you for a loss. Just that they will come at you hard and fast, with good technique, solid schemes and very few execution errors. Which insures that as an offense, you're always on defense. You don't get to direct the way the play is going to go.
It's hard to say if the defensive line didn't do it's business on that one drive Albany had. Or was Parker just running a different defensive concept. If there's one thing we absolutely KNOW about Phil Parker is the guy knows how to make halftime adjustments.
Hard to say any previous defenses would have handled an Albany like team any better than last Saturday.
Now, I know this is going to sound a little crazy. A completely new and novel take that I'm sure none of you have considered. I've been thinking a lot about Iowa football these last few years. And I've noticed something maybe none of you have picked up on....
IF....
We can show even close to an average passing attack, it will be a competitive game. If we can show a slightly above average passing attack, there's a very good chance Iowa wins this game.
Remember though, sports betting has absolutely nothing to do with who's going to win the game or by how much. It's all about how much money comes in for each team and the line is set in such a way that the house will make money. And people who are betting, are weighing risk-reward. Higher reward, but higher risk going against the wisdom of the crowd.
While I am always a believer in the wisdom of the crowd, I have to suspend that faith when fandom....and rivalry....are in play.
There are some key differences this year compared to most Cy-Hawk games.
In most years ISU has tall, elitish WRs and the key to their offense is getting them the ball, since Iowa shuts down their run game. This year is different: ISU WRs are about the same quality as Iowa's -- i.e. nothing special. ISU made the mistake in the 1st half vs KState of trying to run the ball out of spread formations, and failed miserably. In the 2nd half they came out in heavy personnel packages and ran the ball down the Wildcats' throats. And 13 of Brecht's 19 passes last week were completed to TEs.
In other words, this year ISU's offense is going to look a lot like Iowa's: heavy run formations and throws to the TEs. Oh, they'll take a long shot or two, but that's not how they're planning to win the game. And I actually think if they load up the LOS the Clones may have more success running the ball than past years -- after seeing Iowa's new LB duo in-person last week, they have nowhere near the skill we're used to seeing at that spot.
ISU's defensive front 4 are weaker than most years, and the only question is what degree ISU will load the box to stop Iowa's run game...they really have no other choice.
What's interesting is that from a talent perspective, both of these teams are weaker than last year. Iowa has weak position groups -- no WR over 6', a weak LB crew and questionable QB. ISU has a weak defensive front 4, poor safeties, and meh WRs. Neither of these teams are Top 20 caliber squads, altho due to their schedule ISU may manage to stay in the Top 25 all year.
In most years ISU has tall, elitish WRs and the key to their offense is getting them the ball, since Iowa shuts down their run game. This year is different: ISU WRs are about the same quality as Iowa's -- i.e. nothing special. ISU made the mistake in the 1st half vs KState of trying to run the ball out of spread formations, and failed miserably. In the 2nd half they came out in heavy personnel packages and ran the ball down the Wildcats' throats. And 13 of Brecht's 19 passes last week were completed to TEs.
In other words, this year ISU's offense is going to look a lot like Iowa's: heavy run formations and throws to the TEs. Oh, they'll take a long shot or two, but that's not how they're planning to win the game. And I actually think if they load up the LOS the Clones may have more success running the ball than past years -- after seeing Iowa's new LB duo in-person last week, they have nowhere near the skill we're used to seeing at that spot.
ISU's defensive front 4 are weaker than most years, and the only question is what degree ISU will load the box to stop Iowa's run game...they really have no other choice.
What's interesting is that from a talent perspective, both of these teams are weaker than last year. Iowa has weak position groups -- no WR over 6', a weak LB crew and questionable QB. ISU has a weak defensive front 4, poor safeties, and meh WRs. Neither of these teams are Top 20 caliber squads, altho due to their schedule ISU may manage to stay in the Top 25 all year.
thedukeofearl
Well-Known Member
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
You were making a lot of sense to me until I got to the end. If the premise of this paragraph is that Iowa is weaker this year than last, and you are pointing to WR and QB, you are dead wrong. First, yes, LB is much weaker. We had a couple of good ones last year for sure. But, we are demonstrably better at QB, even with a very bad throwing performance against Albany. Gron is a weapon and can make plays at least with his feet and he will figure out the throws. He is lights out better than the clown car of misfits we paraded out at QB last year. Same with WR. We have everyone back and added two transfers, one of whom is our #1 starter! This group is better than last years group. Also Howard is 6'5 and listed as Phillips' backup, so that is not accurate.
We are also even or better at OL, DL, TE, and secondary. The only two groups that are worse than last year for sure are RB and LB. I believe Iowa is a better team than last year, but it may not show that because of the tough schedule. We shall see.
kicker22
Well-Known Member
It pains me to say it, but after two games I don't think we can say that Gronoski is "lights out better than the clown car of misfits we paraded out at QB last year". He may have a higher ceiling, but at this point he's shown that from a running perspective yes, but from a throwing perspective I'm not sure I've seen anything out of him as a Hawkeye that says he's any better then anyone we put under center last year.
