Do I think Iowa will win? Yes. What will determine if the game is close or not will be Arnaud.
I think Iowa St. is built a lot like Northwestern. Quarterback with a thick lower body really won't beat you on the perimeter, but terrific on the quarterback draw breaking tackles and moving the chain 3,4,5 yard chunks at a time. Given the deep drops that Iowa linebackers make, it could give Iowa fits.
Arnaud has tendency to get overhyped and that leads to him being impatient and prone to turnovers and bad decisions. If that happens you will see Iowa win by huge margin again.
The blueprint for Iowa St. is the 2007 game where Iowa St. won on 10 to 12 play drives with Brett Meyer moving the chains with short passes and QB draws. Defensively, Alvin Bowen lived in the Iowa backfield 8 and 9 man fronts, left Bowen free to make a million tackles.
Jon/Steve both have Iowa St going 7-5 this year. I just don't see it given that schedule. Rhoads has put an emphasis on creating turnovers, but that still is not enough with what they have to replace on defense, including the all important front 4.