Finishing 6th in the Big 10

ILHawk said:
Seriously? A team with 4 top 25 wins? IL and MN gain at least 1 game over Iowa due to SoS non conference and maybe up to 2. The gain a half game up to 1 for conference. A 7 win IL team still MAYBE beats out a 10 win Iowa team. I'm not in favor of it, but it does make sense. You can't gloss over a very weak schedule with less than solid results. IL will likely have at least one more big win. That would give them 6 over top 25 teams. How many would Iowa have? Zero w/o beating IN. The other possibility is winning 2 over top 40 in the tourney.
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Again you keep comparing Illinois resume to Iowa's, I agree Illinois will probably be a tournament team and they have a much better resume but that does not mean Iowa won't be in the tournament. As of right now Illinois is in the tournament, Lunardi has them as an 11 seed not even on the bubble. If Iowa gets on the bubble the committee will be comparing their resume against the likes of Temple, Virginia, LaSalle, Villanova, and Saint Mary. A 20+ win Big Ten team that is over .500 in conference play with wins over Wisconsin, Iowa State, (assuming) Minnesota, and Illinois is going to carry a lot of weight.

Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN
 


ssckelley said:
Again you keep comparing Illinois resume to Iowa's, I agree Illinois will probably be a tournament team and they have a much better resume but that does not mean Iowa won't be in the tournament. As of right now Illinois is in the tournament, Lunardi has them as an 11 seed not even on the bubble. If Iowa gets on the bubble the committee will be comparing their resume against the likes of Temple, Virginia, LaSalle, Villanova, and Saint Mary. A 20+ win Big Ten team that is over .500 in conference play with wins over Wisconsin, Iowa State, (assuming) Minnesota, and Illinois is going to carry a lot of weight.

Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN
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For B1G to get 7 in the teams at the end need a resume of wins. Iowa just doesn't have that. IL and MN have the best shot....IF they don't falter. 8 teams? Doubt it unless MN picks it up too. Just saying it's a long shot. Don't blame me. Blame the scheduler and blame the losses as Purdue and VT. I don't buy the....but VT was good at that time. Not really.
 


ILHawk said:
For B1G to get 7 in the teams at the end need a resume of wins. Iowa just doesn't have that. IL and MN have the best shot....IF they don't falter. 8 teams? Doubt it unless MN picks it up too. Just saying it's a long shot. Don't blame me. Blame the scheduler and blame the losses as Purdue and VT. I don't buy the....but VT was good at that time. Not really.
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IOWA has to build a resume more than beating IL and MN at home. The only other game is IU or the tourney. And not lose to bottom feeders on the road. For that, see this post about Purdue and VT. VT is a bottom ACC feeder of what you don't consider to be a really strong conference based on some posts.
 
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ILHawk said:
For B1G to get 7 in the teams at the end need a resume of wins. Iowa just doesn't have that. IL and MN have the best shot....IF they don't falter. 8 teams? Doubt it unless MN picks it up too. Just saying it's a long shot. Don't blame me. Blame the scheduler and blame the losses as Purdue and VT. I don't buy the....but VT was good at that time. Not really.
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More than the losses to VT that I look at as for why Iowa is in this position, I think it's more about games that were blown late against MSU, Minnesota (on the road), Wisconsin (on the road) and Purdue (on the road). Get even a couple of those games, and Iowa's resume is looks much better all of the sudden. Unfortunately, that's not where we are, though.

As for how many teams from the Big Ten that get into the tournament, the committee looks at the most deserving teams (or so the theory goes). Short of conference tournament automatic qualifiers, there is no quota/limit I'm aware of on how many teams from a conference get in. Can the Big Ten get 8? It may be a stretch, but it's possible IMO.

I'm not saying at this point that I think Iowa gets in. Gut feeling tells me that it's going to stub it's toe once or twice more than it can afford to down the stretch. But if Iowa can go on a run, reel off 6 of the next 7, they will definitely be in contention for a bid on selection Sunday. Particularly if they perform well in the BTT.
 


If Iowa finishes 21-10 (10-8) and 6th place in the Big10 it's going to be hard to keep them out of the tournament. They would have to win their first round game (likely Nebraska) which would put them at 22-10 (10-8). They would then face the #3 seed (MSU, Wisc, OSU). That would be a huge opportunity to get another signature win and solidify us firmly into the tournament. Minnesota and Illinois would be playing in the #8/#9 game and #7/#10 games and playing the #1 and #2 seeds in the 2nd round.

If we would lose that game we'd finish 22-11 (10-8) in the Big 10. Compare that to an Illinois team that could end up 20-10 (7-11) or 21-9 (8-10) and a Minnesota team at 20-11 (8-10). 2 teams Iowa would have recently just beat (in this scenario where Iowa finish 6-1). How does the selection committee sort that out?

Iowa would also be the hot team finishing their last 10 with only a couple losses. Best case scenario is the Big 10 gets 8 teams in the tournament. They were the best conference this year by far so they should deserve the most bids I would say. It will definitely be interesting to see who this whole race to the tournament plays out.
 
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ILHawk, it does not make any difference to the committee which conferences these at larges comes from. If the Big Ten is worthy of putting 8 teams in the tournament then they will. I will say for a 3rd time come selection time if Iowa takes care of business the committee will be comparing Iowa's resume to other bubble teams. As of now neither Minnesota or Illinois are on the bubble, most bracketologist (sp?) have them solidly in the tournament. At 10-8 I do not think Iowa will even be on the bubble unless they lose the first round game, I think they would be solid.

Look at the bubble teams, at random I picked Saint Mary who Lunardi has as a "last 4 in". Saint Mary has 3 quality wins over Harvard (93 RPI), BYU (60 RPI), and Santa Clara (98 RPI) with bad losses to Georgia Tech (120 RPI) and Pacific (139 RPI). Are you seriously trying to suggest that a 10-8 Iowa team with wins over Iowa State (37 RPI), UNI (87 RPI and beat St Mary), Wisconsin (31 RPI), assuming Illinois (26 RPI), and assuming Minnesota (13 RPI) would get passed over?
 


ssckelley said:
ILHawk, it does not make any difference to the committee which conferences these at larges comes from. If the Big Ten is worthy of putting 8 teams in the tournament then they will. I will say for a 3rd time come selection time if Iowa takes care of business the committee will be comparing Iowa's resume to other bubble teams. As of now neither Minnesota or Illinois are on the bubble, most bracketologist (sp?) have them solidly in the tournament. At 10-8 I do not think Iowa will even be on the bubble unless they lose the first round game, I think they would be solid.

Look at the bubble teams, at random I picked Saint Mary who Lunardi has as a "last 4 in". Saint Mary has 3 quality wins over Harvard (93 RPI), BYU (60 RPI), and Santa Clara (98 RPI) with bad losses to Georgia Tech (120 RPI) and Pacific (139 RPI). Are you seriously trying to suggest that a 10-8 Iowa team with wins over Iowa State (37 RPI), UNI (87 RPI and beat St Mary), Wisconsin (31 RPI), assuming Illinois (26 RPI), and assuming Minnesota (13 RPI) would get passed over?
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This is also a very important point. If the committee believes the Big 10 is good enough have the opportunity to get 8 teams in, our resume looks a lot better against the other bubble teams trying to get in, opposed to going against Illinois and Minnesota.
 


DunderMifflinHk said:
This is also a very important point. If the committee believes the Big 10 is good enough have the opportunity to get 8 teams in, our resume looks a lot better against the other bubble teams trying to get in, opposed to going against Illinois and Minnesota.
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The committee really does not look at how many teams are in from each conference, it is why the Big East got 11 teams in 2 years ago. If Iowa gets left out of the tournament it will be because of their own resume not because Illinois got in and "OMG, we cannot have more than 7 teams in from the Big Ten". If Iowa gets to .500 or better in conference and does not lose in the first round in the BTT they will be in consideration.
 


I certainly hope you are right. Not getting my hopes up. The Hawks still really haven't accomplished anything that if you weren't an Iowa fan that people would agree with. The question is: Can they do something they have not yet done? Which is beating great teams in close games. Most any bubble team likely has a resume of wins over the likes of WISKY and Clowns. Creighton is now a bubble team that has beaten Wisky.

Hope I"m wrong and you are right. As stated, IA needs to beat IL, MN, IU and win at least 1 maybe 2 higher ranked teams in the tourney. Short of that, not dancin. If Iowa beats MN and IL they are likely dropping in value. So the IU game and 2 wins in the tourney are needed.

MO Valley for example could get 3 teams in, to the detriment of IA..Mo Valley with 3 is just as likely as B1G w/8 and maybe 7.
 


I've been thinking this for the last 11 games and they keep winning. I'm now a believer...much like Wisconsin. It's about the sum of the parts exceeding the individual pieces and doing exactly what the coach wants done. That has to be it. Right?

LG210 said:
MSU has 4-5 really tough games coming up. I don't think they will be considered in the same "class" as Mich and IU at the end of conference play.
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I wouldn't worry too much about those road games Kelley. We should win them both and probably will. If we lose either of those we are most definitely an NIT team...will have proven it beyond a doubt unless we win 4 in 4 days at BTT. Also, I don't view any Iowa home win an upset. We should win the rest of our home games...or my NIT comment above applies.

ssckelley said:
You might be right but I think a 9-9 Iowa team with a 1st round BTT win gets Iowa on the bubble. A lot is going to be determined by how well they do this week if they can get past Penn State and upset Minnesota at home.

I hate to say this but seeing how Iowa has lost to teams like Virginia Tech and Purdue on the road I have a hard time believing Iowa beats both Penn State and Nebraska on the road. A stumble to either of those teams would almost kill any small chance Iowa has to reach the NCAA.
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You keep making this same statement and I keep countering that Iowa will have just beaten Minnesota and Illinois and because of those wins finished ahead of them in the standings and 2-1 overall head-to-head.

I'm not trying to be difficult. This is a serious question. What are your thoughts on the fact we will have just swept these 2 teams (under the scenario that has Iowa at 6th and 10-8)?

ILHawk said:
Seriously? A team with 4 top 25 wins? IL and MN gain at least 1 game over Iowa due to SoS non conference and maybe up to 2. The gain a half game up to 1 for conference. A 7 win IL team still MAYBE beats out a 10 win Iowa team. I'm not in favor of it, but it does make sense. You can't gloss over a very weak schedule with less than solid results. IL will likely have at least one more big win. That would give them 6 over top 25 teams. How many would Iowa have? Zero w/o beating IN. The other possibility is winning 2 over top 40 in the tourney.
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SoS and current rankings. If IA sweeps them, they won't count as much in RPI because they will drop. My point is that beating either team won't get the kick needed.
 


Okay, I'm done. Kelley, myself and others have tried to get you to "see" our points. I decided to simply ask the head-to-head question directly and would have bet a substantial sum of money you would not answer it but rather keep beating your same drum. Now I know you're just saying Iowa won't make it. There is no situation which will move you off of this position. Now I'm trying to determine which team you really route for on a daily basis...Illinois, Minnesota or possibly Iowa State. I know. I know. Your answer is SOS and RPI. You cheer for SOS and RPI. That's great!

ILHawk said:
SoS and current rankings. If IA sweeps them, they won't count as much in RPI because they will drop. My point is that beating either team won't get the kick needed.
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ILHawk said:
I certainly hope you are right. Not getting my hopes up. The Hawks still really haven't accomplished anything that if you weren't an Iowa fan that people would agree with. The question is: Can they do something they have not yet done? Which is beating great teams in close games. Most any bubble team likely has a resume of wins over the likes of WISKY and Clowns. Creighton is now a bubble team that has beaten Wisky.

Hope I"m wrong and you are right. As stated, IA needs to beat IL, MN, IU and win at least 1 maybe 2 higher ranked teams in the tourney. Short of that, not dancin. If Iowa beats MN and IL they are likely dropping in value. So the IU game and 2 wins in the tourney are needed.

MO Valley for example could get 3 teams in, to the detriment of IA..Mo Valley with 3 is just as likely as B1G w/8 and maybe 7.
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Holy cow dude. You think we have to beat every tough team we have left which will pretty much mean we finish 11-7. Then you think we have to win 2 or maybe 3 in the big 10 tourney?! You must either think its a 32 team tournament or you are extremely over impressed with the other bubble teams.

I haven't really looked yet. Has every other bubble team out there beat an indiana type team on the road this year? If so I guess we might need to win out and win 3 in the big 10 tourney.
 


Below are the RealtimeRPI links that basically shows the resume for the teams Lunardi has as his last 4 in:

Saint Mary

Woo hoo, impressive wins over Harvard, BYU, and Santa Clara! They have lost to UNI, who coincidently Iowa has beaten.

La Salle

Ok, so Butler was an impressive win but Villanova, VCU, and Richmond round out their quality win list. They did lose to Central Connecticut State at home.

Temple

They do have an impressive quality win over Syracuse and quality wins against Villanova, St Louis, Richmond, and Charlotte. They have bad losses to the Bonnies and Canisius.

Virginia

This is the highest RPI team Lunardi has in the tournament (#81 on realtime). They have quality wins against Wisconsin, NC State, Tennessee, North Carolina, Florida State, and Maryland. But they also have some bad losses against George Mason, Delaware, Old Dominion (currently 3-22), Wake Forest, and Clemson.

You look at any of these teams and if Iowa was to win 2 between Minnesota, Illinois, and Indiana they would have a far greater resume than any of these teams.

I have to admit it is fun arguing about this stuff again.
 


I've never even heard of Central Connecticut State. I can't remember if Butler had their leading scorer back when they lost to LaSalle...just curious if anyone happens to know. Thanks!
 


ILHawk said:
As stated, IA needs to beat IL, MN, IU and win at least 1 maybe 2 higher ranked teams in the tourney. Short of that, not dancin. If Iowa beats MN and IL they are likely dropping in value. So the IU game and 2 wins in the tourney are needed.
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If we follow your plan, we will finish the BTT 24-10, with 11 wins over the RPI top 100 and only 2 losses against teams outside of the top 50. That sounds like the resume of a high seed, not a bubble team. We can definitely afford to lose to Indiana; if we win the other 6 and beat Nebraska in the BTT, we would be 22-10 (10-8 in conference, 10-8 against the top 100 and 11-2 against the 100+). We could probably afford a second loss in that case.
 






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