hawkfan340
Well-Known Member
Please link these robust statistical studies, I am interested in reading. I would love to see the statistics on going for 4th and 12 from the 40 or 50. I would almost be willing to bet that the opposing team has a higher % to score on their next possession if the team failed to convert, than the team has of scoring itself on that drive.
Here is the one from a Berkeley economics professor that kicked off (no pun intended) statistical studies of this nature.
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf
Since then, various other analyses have been done that support the position that punting on the inside the 50 and kicking FGs near the goal line generally are the wrong strategy.
Note that at some point down, distance, and field position may making punting a proper strategy. (In an extreme example, punting is almost certainly the proper strategy on 4th and goal from the 49.) I'm not sure where that line officially falls. Punting on 4th and 12 from the 44 or whatever the NIU situation was last year may have been optimal. But change that to 4th and 5 from the 35, and it would likely be better to still go for it.