Excellect BHGP article with (some) defense of Greg Davis

[hawkeyegamefilm]

My favorite part of this item was Patrick citing my running game chart and data And I certainly appreciate the attribution.

I really enjoy his writing on the whole. Good stuff

Yeah I corrected him on twitter.

Interesting stuff concerning tempo too. I use a different metric to track offenses output/productivity. I use a common NFL metric: Completed passes + rushing attempts. Under old rules under pro-style systems, if you hit 55+ of those, you had a good chance to win. 60+ even better & I believe 70+ was like 98% win chance. It's not a terribly valid model these days with all spread based schemes out there but it's still interesting to look at in terms of determining the tempo of the offense.

2012
	Game	Comp+RA
	NI	70
	ISU	48
	UNI	61
	CMU	44
	UM	43
	MSU	53
	PSU	40
	NU	64
	IU	51
	PU	50
	UM	53
	Neb	50

It's not overly telling in terms of predicting W/L in this case, but tempo took a big dive after Northern Illinois. Very noticeable, especially considering 70 only yielded 19 points. Was a pretty good indication things weren't on the right track.

 

[NCHawker]

Seems to me that the number of plays run (as defined above) is just an outcome. It's easy to point to but it is an outcome of taking more plays to score and of course picking up first downs and having the defense get the ball back to you.

 

[SpiderRico]

Seems to me that the number of plays run (as defined above) is just an outcome. It's easy to point to but it is an outcome of taking more plays to score and of course picking up first downs and having the defense get the ball back to you.

Exactly. Its kinda like the old stat they used to roll out that said "x" team had such and such a record when rushing for x yards or having x rushing attempts. Well of course theyd have a good record because most teams run the ball late in games with the lead. That stat doesnt drive wins, its the RESULT of doing something else to win the game.

Same thing with total number of plays. That metric is a result of winning, its not a driver of wins.

 

[MoseSchrute]

Iowa will suck at offense as long as Kirk is the coach.

 

[Tfunkhawkeye]

I too am not totally convinced of the number of plays metric being meaningful. Off the top of my head the offense could have had 50 2nd half possessions in the ISU and Neb game and still not produced points let alone victory.

 

[NCHawker]

Iowa will suck at offense as long as Kirk is the coach.

What are you trying to say?

 

[desihawk]

Yeah I corrected him on twitter.

Interesting stuff concerning tempo too. I use a different metric to track offenses output/productivity. I use a common NFL metric: Completed passes + rushing attempts. Under old rules under pro-style systems, if you hit 55+ of those, you had a good chance to win. 60+ even better & I believe 70+ was like 98% win chance. It's not a terribly valid model these days with all spread based schemes out there but it's still interesting to look at in terms of determining the tempo of the offense.

2012
	Game	Comp+RA
	NI	70
	ISU	48
	UNI	61
	CMU	44
	UM	43
	MSU	53
	PSU	40
	NU	64
	IU	51
	PU	50
	UM	53
	Neb	50

It's not overly telling in terms of predicting W/L in this case, but tempo took a big dive after Northern Illinois. Very noticeable, especially considering 70 only yielded 19 points. Was a pretty good indication things weren't on the right track.

The assumption though here (and in Vint's BGHP article) is that a single point of failure did not exist...apparently the horrible outcome was primarily the result of an unholy marriage.

If we were to repeat an analysis of the kind you performed but tweak it in some way for red-zone plays (honestly, I have no idea if an analysis of this kind is feasible) and study the outcome, perhaps something more will emerge. Here is a rudimentary look: Iowa's Red Zone offense ranks a surprisingly good #79 (I for one had not anticipated anything better than 100). 38 trips yielded 13 rush TDs, 12 FGs, and 5 pass TDs. I glanced through the numbers for teams ranked above Iowa -- no team has such such a skewed (poor pass TD) ratio outside Georgia Tech and Auburn. Take this implication and apply it to non-red-zone plays.

 

[NCHawker]

Statistics show that if your parents don't have any children you won't either.

 

[IOWuh9]

Wow, well written article. It almost makes me happy we retained Davis. I'm not sure Davis fully deserves to be the fall guy in all of this but the very fact that Ferentz kept him shows us what we all know: Ferentz does not adapt.

My anger over retaining Davis has almost nothing to do with Davis himself. It's that we have a guy at the helm who seems to be cutting off his nose to spite his face.

 

[PCHawk]

I just read it again. This may be the article of the year. It digs into some long-held beliefs and absolutely destroys them with hard facts.



And regarding the article's "get out of GD's way" theme, recall the persistent talk during KOK's tenure that he too had been handcuffed. His coaching style before and after Iowa strongly suggest it was true.

We probably had the best rushing offense in the conference in 2008 but finished 4th in statistics because of how few possessions we have a game. Most stats on offense and defense come back to lack of possessions. People really need to learn to factor that in.

 

[papathawki]

I love this thread because it taught me a new word, "devanillazation". I'd love to use it myself sometime, If I just knew what the hell it meant.

 

[papathawki]

I just ran it through MS Word and it didn't recognize the word. I think it's a great word but don't know how to get it intoour dictionary. Any suggestions?