Everything you know about Iowa-NW is wrong

[KnightHawk9]

It's once again time for my annual reminder that the common theme you hear about the Iowa-Northwestern series is wrong. Most people still seem to think that the reason jNW has so much success against Iowa is that their dink-and-dunk offense is the perfect foil for Iowa's bend-don't-break defense. Former Wildcat QB CJ Bacher has even bought into the theory. However, the evidence doesn't really back it up.

I show below the average points the IA defense gave up each season, the points NW scored against IA that year, and the average points NW scored that season. What I would expect is that NW would score some amount between the IA D number and the NW O number.

	Iowa D Avg	NW Pts v IA	NW O Avg	Outcome
2012	22.9	28.0	31.5	L
2011	23.3	31.0	29.5	W
2010	16.4	21.0	25.4	L
2009	15.5	17.0	25.2	L
2008	13.3	22.0	24.5	L
2007	18.8	17.0	25.8	W
2006	20.3	21.0	16.5	L
2005	19.0	28.0	31.8	L
Avg	18.7	23.1	26.3

That's generally what we see. The only exceptions are in 2006 (which actually does support CJ) and in 2011 (which we won anyway). By and large though, I don't see the NW O having an inordinate amount of success vs IA.


Let's look at the other side of the ball. Obviously all the columns are the same idea.

	Iowa O Avg	IA Pts v NW	NW D Avg	Outcome
2012	19.3	17	22.8	L
2011	28.7	41	27.3	W
2010	29.1	17	27.7	L
2009	23.1	10	23.3	L
2008	30.3	17	19.3	L
2007	18.5	28	31	W
2006	23.8	7	26.2	L
2005	30.5	27	32.5	L
Avg	25.4	20.5	26.3

Here, the impact is obvious. Look how the average for all years is less than both the average IA O and the NW D. Also, a very clear rule-of-thumb emerges: if IA scores more points than their season average, they win the game. I'll bring up the 2006 game again to partially deflate CJ's argument. Yes, NW scored more than IA was allowing and quite a bit more than they were scoring on average. But really, if IA's offense had put up what they were averaging or, even better, what NW was giving up, IA still would have won.

So, the end result is, when you're sitting in front of your TV or tailgating this weekend and someone tells you NW always beats IA because our defense, go ahead and tell them they don't know what they're talking about...especially if it's CJ Bacher.

 

[BLKNGOLD48]

Good stuff, thanks for posting....

 

[ICHawk24]

The data doesn't necessarily show that the dink and dunk isn't part of the equation. NW has used the controlled passing game to move the chains and keep their defense off the field. It'd be interesting to see the time of possession numbers and 3rd down conversions for the series.

 

[NCHawker]

almost every single time they beat Iowa they outscore the hawks.

 

[Clark]

almost every single time they beat Iowa they outscore the hawks.

almost? When did they outscore Iowa and lose?

Northwestern likes to slant their dline against Iowa and it works remarkably well. Apparently their d-line is a little banged up so we'll see how that changes their effectiveness in slowing down Iowa's run game.

 

[ICHawk24]

Hopefully the format isn't too terrible. They are KILLING us in 3rd down conversions. Solid TOP lead.


IA 3rd IA TOP NW TOP NW 3rd Result
2012 8-17 34:25:00 25:35:00 8-11 L 17-28
2011 1-7 21:37 38:23:00 16-22 W 41-31
2010 2-14 28:51:00 31:09:00 9-16 L 17-21
2009 4-14 25:40:00 34:20:00 9-18 L 10-17
2008 3-9 30:07:00 29:53:00 9-19 L 17-22
2007 3-14 28:39:00 31:21:00 6-16 W 28-17
2006 7-13 26:38:00 33:22:00 7-13 L 7-21
2005 6-15 30:42:00 29:18:00 9-18 L 27-28

 

[homes]

Just reviewing this conjures up many bad memories of watching the Iowa - NW games. An onside kick, concussed star RB, severe ankle sprain, scrambling QB vs. winded DL. It needs to stop.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

Hopefully the format isn't too terrible. They are KILLING us in 3rd down conversions. Solid TOP lead.


IA 3rd IA TOP NW TOP NW 3rd Result
2012 8-17 34:25:00 25:35:00 8-11 L 17-28
2011 1-7 21:37 38:23:00 16-22 W 41-31
2010 2-14 28:51:00 31:09:00 9-16 L 17-21
2009 4-14 25:40:00 34:20:00 9-18 L 10-17
2008 3-9 30:07:00 29:53:00 9-19 L 17-22
2007 3-14 28:39:00 31:21:00 6-16 W 28-17
2006 7-13 26:38:00 33:22:00 7-13 L 7-21
2005 6-15 30:42:00 29:18:00 9-18 L 27-28

3rd down conversion percentage and TOP tell you that it is their dink and dunk offense that has hurt us over the years. They keep our offense off the field...therefore the low Iowa scoring numbers...and our defense on the field...therefore the 4th quarter problems. Can anyone tell us what the quarter by quarter scoring looks like? My guess is that they have a distinct scorring advantage in the second half as our D is gassed.

 

[okeefe4prez]

The data doesn't necessarily show that the dink and dunk isn't part of the equation. NW has used the controlled passing game to move the chains and keep their defense off the field. It'd be interesting to see the time of possession numbers and 3rd down conversions for the series.

Liek. Fitz was the only coach in the B1G smart enough to know that the way you stop an O'Keefe offense is to keep it on the sidelines. With Davis calling the plays, teams are no longer scared of going 3 and out.

 

[IowaFan81]

It's once again time for my annual reminder that the common theme you hear about the Iowa-Northwestern series is wrong. Most people still seem to think that the reason jNW has so much success against Iowa is that their dink-and-dunk offense is the perfect foil for Iowa's bend-don't-break defense. Former Wildcat QB CJ Bacher has even bought into the theory. However, the evidence doesn't really back it up.

I show below the average points the IA defense gave up each season, the points NW scored against IA that year, and the average points NW scored that season. What I would expect is that NW would score some amount between the IA D number and the NW O number.


That's generally what we see. The only exceptions are in 2006 (which actually does support CJ) and in 2011 (which we won anyway). By and large though, I don't see the NW O having an inordinate amount of success vs IA.


Let's look at the other side of the ball. Obviously all the columns are the same idea.



Here, the impact is obvious. Look how the average for all years is less than both the average IA O and the NW D. Also, a very clear rule-of-thumb emerges: if IA scores more points than their season average, they win the game. I'll bring up the 2006 game again to partially deflate CJ's argument. Yes, NW scored more than IA was allowing and quite a bit more than they were scoring on average. But really, if IA's offense had put up what they were averaging or, even better, what NW was giving up, IA still would have won.

So, the end result is, when you're sitting in front of your TV or tailgating this weekend and someone tells you NW always beats IA because our defense, go ahead and tell them they don't know what they're talking about...especially if it's CJ Bacher.

Nowhere does Bacher say it's only because of NW's offense. He says the offense has more success than some because of their ability to adjust know what Iowa is going to do next. Their offense would be downright awful vs Iowa D otherwise. Also, I seem to remember that they've said Iowa's O was pretty predictable especially under KOK, but I'm not looking it up. We all know Iowa has been predictable under Ferentz and they just try to execute better than the opponent, for some reason it doesn't work against NW.

 

[bitmap]

What you really want to look at is Time Of Possession and Number of Offensive plays run. I think you will find that NW's O kept Iowa's O off the field. Pre GD in the KOK years we are talking about a team that got delay of game penalties coming out of time outs....

 

[LawVHawk]

almost? When did they outscore Iowa and lose?

Northwestern likes to slant their dline against Iowa and it works remarkably well. Apparently their d-line is a little banged up so we'll see how that changes their effectiveness in slowing down Iowa's run game.

You serious, Clark?

 

[Clark]

You serious, Clark?

I think so?

 

[olddude]

Dang nice work. My problem was when i looked at our avg, i think man how nice it was to be a teener.

 

[PCHawk]

Just reviewing this conjures up many bad memories of watching the Iowa - NW games. An onside kick, concussed star RB, severe ankle sprain, scrambling QB vs. winded DL. It needs to stop.

The reason we have such a bad record against them is because of this. Most games we play are close and when you get unlucky in them you are going to lose. We win in '05 '08 and '09 if not for the things you listed.

 

[MoseSchrute]

What you really want to look at is Time Of Possession and Number of Offensive plays run. I think you will find that NW's O kept Iowa's O off the field. Pre GD in the KOK years we are talking about a team that got delay of game penalties coming out of time outs....

...has also happened in the GD era.

 

[Montanahawk]

I remember a few years ago(KOK) Pat Fitz saying Iowa does the same things every year there's 3-4 potentially big plays a game and how you play against them determine whether you win or lose.

So, maybe we're less predictable now, or predictable in different ways. If we open up in that base three TE set it'll be interesting to see if we can run the ball consistently. We'll want to keep the NW offense off the field. Ball control ultimately means consistently making first downs. Which probably means a heavy dose of running the ball but with some misdirection plays and throws to keep them off balance.

 

[KnightHawk9]

The data doesn't necessarily show that the dink and dunk isn't part of the equation. NW has used the controlled passing game to move the chains and keep their defense off the field. It'd be interesting to see the time of possession numbers and 3rd down conversions for the series.

That's a fair point. I don't know if simple TOP proves or disproves my point though. I'm talking about the relative success of NW's offense vs IA's defense (relative to other teams that they play). I would have to find some season-long averages for each team. I might look into that at some point.

 

[KnightHawk9]

Nowhere does Bacher say it's only because of NW's offense. He says the offense has more success than some because of their ability to adjust know what Iowa is going to do next. Their offense would be downright awful vs Iowa D otherwise. Also, I seem to remember that they've said Iowa's O was pretty predictable especially under KOK, but I'm not looking it up. We all know Iowa has been predictable under Ferentz and they just try to execute better than the opponent, for some reason it doesn't work against NW.

I guess I read this differently than you...

Why, then, does Northwestern always seem to have success against Iowa? As a former Quarterback for the Cats, I am convinced that it is because Northwestern is the best team in the Big Ten at making the correct on-the-field adjustments against the Iowa defense. This is going to take a while, but I want to explain to you why this matters so much against a well-coached Iowa defense.

 

[DP5555]

One thing is for sure... if they watched the OSU tape (which I'm sure they did) I have a feeling they are going to be throwing a lot of hook routes right in front of D. King because of the cushion he's been giving WRs. Their receiving core isn't that talented. I hope Phil isn't afraid to let the corners man them up. At least until one of them makes a mistake. Those damn 5-7 yard gains on 1st down are killers. Not only for a defense... for the average Hawkeye fan watching. It really puts me in a sour mood. Specially when I'm getting my drink on... Here's my thought process: Oh look there it is again... there's another one... and another... and another... and ohhh damn once again! SERIOUSLY!?!? WTF!?!? SOMEONE TAKE THAT AWAY FROM THEM!!! And from there on out my neighbors probably think my house is gonna be the next Villisca style tourism site