I was shocked to see Iowa projected to finish 9th only ahead of Penn St, Minnestoa & Nebraska. How does Northwestern finish ahead of Iowa??????
[h=3]Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]2012-13: 25-13 (9-9)
In-conference offense: 1.00 points per possession (7th)
In-conference defense: 0.97 points per possession (4th)
The Iowa men's program was plumbing the depths of its existence before Fran McCaffery took over as head coach in 2010. As he enters his fourth season in Iowa City, McCaffery could be on the cusp of leading the Hawkeyes to their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2006.
Iowa's 25 wins were its most since the Steve Alford era, and once again McCaffery featured an attacking, up-tempo style that was much more aesthetically pleasing than anything Iowa fans saw during the snail-paced, unsuccessful Todd Lickliter years. As a squad, the Hawkeyes couldn't shoot, finishing 308th in 3-point percentage, but still managed to break even in Big Ten play with a young squad that KenPom.com ranked 294th in collective experience.
[h=4]Projected starting lineup[/h]
While the Hawkeyes' late-season surge wasn't enough to get them back into the NCAAs, Iowa did advance to the NIT title game, losing 74-54 to Baylor at Madison Square Garden. Iowa was the second-fastest team in Big Ten play behind Indiana, and with a bigger roster, it was much better defensively than in 2011-12. The Hawkeyes jumped from eighth to fourth on that end in-conference, and from 180th to 22nd nationally in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings.
With so many pieces coming back, it was a quiet offseason for McCaffery's developing squad. The only impactful departure was guard Eric May, and there is plenty of depth on hand to make up for his floor leadership. Iowa's only incoming recruit is three-star wingPeter Jok, a potentially explosive, smooth scorer from Des Moines. Early in Jok's high school career, he was viewed as one of the elite players in his class before injuring his knee. Jok appeared to be in fine form during Iowa's summer league, and he's a core piece going forward for the Hawkeyes. He probably won't start as a freshman, but his outside shooting will be a crucial element for Iowa.
Another newcomer is Wisconsin transfer Jarrod Uthoff, who will be a rotation player with three more years of eligibility remaining after a rugged go of it during the transfer process. He's a face-up big with much-needed range on his shot and, like Jok, Uthoff is a former Iowa high school Mr. Basketball. He'll battle for minutes in what McCaffery has suggested will be an 11-man rotation, but on the shooting-starved Hawkeyes, Uthoff fills a need.
The leading man in all of this will be senior guard Roy Devyn Marble, who hopes to help restore the Iowa program to the heights it achieved in the 1980s when his father, Roy Marble, became the school's career leading scorer. The younger Marble averaged 15 points as a junior but like the rest of the team, he struggled with efficiency from the perimeter. With May gone, McCaffery hopes that Marble will take on more of a playmaking role as a senior, and he'll share offense-initiating duties with sophomore Mike Gesell.
Gesell's defensive quickness plays well in McCaffery's system, but he'll need to become more consistent from the outside (notice a theme here?) and can improve his decision-making. He broke a bone in his non-shooting hand during a summer game; he should be fine when Iowa begins preseason practices, but it was a potential setback in his development. Gesell was unable to play during Iowa's otherwise successful tour of Europe in August.
Woodbury, at 7-1, gave Iowa an inside presence that didn't exist before last season. Over the last four seasons, the last three under McCaffery, Iowa's block rate has gone from 6.7 percent to 8.0, 9.3 and last season's 12.6 mark, which ranked 41st nationally per KenPom.com. Woodbury ranked third on Iowa in block rate behind Melsahn Basabe andGabriel Olaseni, and he had the Hawkeyes' best rebound rate on both ends of the floor.
Woodbury's chief offseason task was to add strength. But he's also going to have to fend off a charge from Olaseni, whose block rate would have ranked as one of the top 50 in the nation had he qualified. Whoever ends up starting, McCaffery now has the luxury of keeping plus rim protection on the floor at all times, which should keep Iowa's defensive rating solid, even if opponent shooting percentages regress to the mean. Iowa finished 11th nationally in 3-point percentage defense, a 171-place climb from 2011-12. The hope is the improvement was related more to scheme and talent than dumb luck. If not, Iowa's defensive rating might head in an unexpected direction.
Playing alongside the big-man duo will be junior Aaron White, who is probably Iowa's best overall player. White is a perfect fit for the attacking philosophy of McCaffery, last season ranking fifth in the nation in foul-drawing rate. He's a decent free throw shooter, which props up his true shooting percentage, even though he could stand to improve the range on his outside shot. White's athleticism also plays well on the offensive glass, an area that was Iowa's offensive strength last season.
An 11-man rotation sounds nice -- especially for a system that emphasizes defensive pressure, aggressive offense and lots of possessions -- but it's unclear how McCaffery will make this work in reality. Marble, Gesell and White will all get starter minutes. Woodbury and Olaseni will split minutes in the middle, with the former probably receiving the larger portion of court time. Basabe is a perfect glue player in the starting unit to bring it all together.
But how will the bench shape up? Uthoff's shooting and defensive versatility should land him in a sixth-man-type role. Jok's upside and ability to score should earn him regular minutes. Iowa's glaring need for deep shooting should mean regular work for junior Josh Oglesby, who disappointed behind the arc last season but reportedly was lighting it up over the summer.
That's nine players already, all with defined roles. Sophomore point guard Anthony Clemmons is not only Iowa's top returning percentage shooter from 3-point range, he's also the team's top pure playmaker. And let's not forget senior wing Zach McCabe, who started seven games last year and averaged 15.6 minutes. He's not going anywhere either.
The concern here is that in trying to spread around minutes on a suddenly deep and experienced roster, McCaffery will not be giving enough court time to the players who deserve it most. Considering where the program was when McCaffery took over, it's a problem the Hawkeyes will be happy to have to solve.
The story of Iowa's season will be told behind the arc on both ends of the floor. Will they again be elite and preventing 3s? Can all of these potential shooters actually put the ball in the basket when it counts? If the answers to these questions are in the affirmative, Iowa will be NCAA-bound.
Projected 2013-14 conference finish: 9th
[h=3]Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]2012-13: 25-13 (9-9)
In-conference offense: 1.00 points per possession (7th)
In-conference defense: 0.97 points per possession (4th)
The Iowa men's program was plumbing the depths of its existence before Fran McCaffery took over as head coach in 2010. As he enters his fourth season in Iowa City, McCaffery could be on the cusp of leading the Hawkeyes to their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2006.
Iowa's 25 wins were its most since the Steve Alford era, and once again McCaffery featured an attacking, up-tempo style that was much more aesthetically pleasing than anything Iowa fans saw during the snail-paced, unsuccessful Todd Lickliter years. As a squad, the Hawkeyes couldn't shoot, finishing 308th in 3-point percentage, but still managed to break even in Big Ten play with a young squad that KenPom.com ranked 294th in collective experience.
[h=4]Projected starting lineup[/h]
| Pos. | Name | Year |
|---|---|---|
| C | Adam Woodbury | Soph. |
| F | Aaron White | Jr. |
| F | Melsahn Basabe | Sr. |
| G | Roy Devyn Marble | Sr. |
| G | Mike Gesell | Soph. |
While the Hawkeyes' late-season surge wasn't enough to get them back into the NCAAs, Iowa did advance to the NIT title game, losing 74-54 to Baylor at Madison Square Garden. Iowa was the second-fastest team in Big Ten play behind Indiana, and with a bigger roster, it was much better defensively than in 2011-12. The Hawkeyes jumped from eighth to fourth on that end in-conference, and from 180th to 22nd nationally in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings.
With so many pieces coming back, it was a quiet offseason for McCaffery's developing squad. The only impactful departure was guard Eric May, and there is plenty of depth on hand to make up for his floor leadership. Iowa's only incoming recruit is three-star wingPeter Jok, a potentially explosive, smooth scorer from Des Moines. Early in Jok's high school career, he was viewed as one of the elite players in his class before injuring his knee. Jok appeared to be in fine form during Iowa's summer league, and he's a core piece going forward for the Hawkeyes. He probably won't start as a freshman, but his outside shooting will be a crucial element for Iowa.
Another newcomer is Wisconsin transfer Jarrod Uthoff, who will be a rotation player with three more years of eligibility remaining after a rugged go of it during the transfer process. He's a face-up big with much-needed range on his shot and, like Jok, Uthoff is a former Iowa high school Mr. Basketball. He'll battle for minutes in what McCaffery has suggested will be an 11-man rotation, but on the shooting-starved Hawkeyes, Uthoff fills a need.
The leading man in all of this will be senior guard Roy Devyn Marble, who hopes to help restore the Iowa program to the heights it achieved in the 1980s when his father, Roy Marble, became the school's career leading scorer. The younger Marble averaged 15 points as a junior but like the rest of the team, he struggled with efficiency from the perimeter. With May gone, McCaffery hopes that Marble will take on more of a playmaking role as a senior, and he'll share offense-initiating duties with sophomore Mike Gesell.
Gesell's defensive quickness plays well in McCaffery's system, but he'll need to become more consistent from the outside (notice a theme here?) and can improve his decision-making. He broke a bone in his non-shooting hand during a summer game; he should be fine when Iowa begins preseason practices, but it was a potential setback in his development. Gesell was unable to play during Iowa's otherwise successful tour of Europe in August.
Woodbury, at 7-1, gave Iowa an inside presence that didn't exist before last season. Over the last four seasons, the last three under McCaffery, Iowa's block rate has gone from 6.7 percent to 8.0, 9.3 and last season's 12.6 mark, which ranked 41st nationally per KenPom.com. Woodbury ranked third on Iowa in block rate behind Melsahn Basabe andGabriel Olaseni, and he had the Hawkeyes' best rebound rate on both ends of the floor.
Woodbury's chief offseason task was to add strength. But he's also going to have to fend off a charge from Olaseni, whose block rate would have ranked as one of the top 50 in the nation had he qualified. Whoever ends up starting, McCaffery now has the luxury of keeping plus rim protection on the floor at all times, which should keep Iowa's defensive rating solid, even if opponent shooting percentages regress to the mean. Iowa finished 11th nationally in 3-point percentage defense, a 171-place climb from 2011-12. The hope is the improvement was related more to scheme and talent than dumb luck. If not, Iowa's defensive rating might head in an unexpected direction.
Playing alongside the big-man duo will be junior Aaron White, who is probably Iowa's best overall player. White is a perfect fit for the attacking philosophy of McCaffery, last season ranking fifth in the nation in foul-drawing rate. He's a decent free throw shooter, which props up his true shooting percentage, even though he could stand to improve the range on his outside shot. White's athleticism also plays well on the offensive glass, an area that was Iowa's offensive strength last season.
An 11-man rotation sounds nice -- especially for a system that emphasizes defensive pressure, aggressive offense and lots of possessions -- but it's unclear how McCaffery will make this work in reality. Marble, Gesell and White will all get starter minutes. Woodbury and Olaseni will split minutes in the middle, with the former probably receiving the larger portion of court time. Basabe is a perfect glue player in the starting unit to bring it all together.
But how will the bench shape up? Uthoff's shooting and defensive versatility should land him in a sixth-man-type role. Jok's upside and ability to score should earn him regular minutes. Iowa's glaring need for deep shooting should mean regular work for junior Josh Oglesby, who disappointed behind the arc last season but reportedly was lighting it up over the summer.
That's nine players already, all with defined roles. Sophomore point guard Anthony Clemmons is not only Iowa's top returning percentage shooter from 3-point range, he's also the team's top pure playmaker. And let's not forget senior wing Zach McCabe, who started seven games last year and averaged 15.6 minutes. He's not going anywhere either.
The concern here is that in trying to spread around minutes on a suddenly deep and experienced roster, McCaffery will not be giving enough court time to the players who deserve it most. Considering where the program was when McCaffery took over, it's a problem the Hawkeyes will be happy to have to solve.
The story of Iowa's season will be told behind the arc on both ends of the floor. Will they again be elite and preventing 3s? Can all of these potential shooters actually put the ball in the basket when it counts? If the answers to these questions are in the affirmative, Iowa will be NCAA-bound.
Projected 2013-14 conference finish: 9th
