Down 9 and going for 2

[PCHawk]

You can't avoid the risk. You can delay the risk by 60 seconds of football.

Let's say you take all your money and buy lotto tickets in hopes of hitting it big. An all or nothing bet to become rich.

Do you play on the Thursday? Or the Friday? Because for some reason, if you said Thursday and lost, do you think the problem was the day of the week you played?

If you play it Thursday and lose, you don't even give yourself a chance to win Friday!

 

[GoHawks12345]

If you play it Thursday and lose, you don't even give yourself a chance to win Friday!

Exactly, we've proven it mathematically.

By losing, that gives you a zero percent chance to win!

 

[theboat]

You can't avoid the risk. You can delay the risk by 60 seconds of football.

Let's say you take all your money and buy lotto tickets in hopes of hitting it big. An all or nothing bet to become rich.

Do you play on the Thursday? Or the Friday? Because for some reason, if you said Thursday and lost, do you think the problem was the day of the week you played?

You are not good at analogies

 

[theboat]

If you play it Thursday and lose, you don't even give yourself a chance to win Friday!

That doesn’t make any sense. Digits lotto analogy is just stupid

 

[GoHawks12345]

You are not good at analogies

The problem is I made my analogy attempt on a Tuesday. I should have waited until later this week.

 

[theboat]

The problem is I made my analogy attempt on a Tuesday. I should have waited until later this week.

You are still bad. You should feel bad.

 

[PCHawk]

That doesn’t make any sense. Digits lotto analogy is just stupid

I agree. My logic made absolutely no sense there.

 

[PCHawk]

You are not good at analogies

Well it did cover the basis. Waiting longer to play something with the same odds doesn't increase your chances of winning. But you do get to hope longer.

 

[PCHawk]

Anyone who ever walks up to a roulette wheel for one bet and losses walks away wishing they would have played the next one instead.

 

[GoHawks12345]

You are still bad. You should feel bad.

Your right boat. The truth is... I didn't even know if they have Thursday lotteries.

Is it only a weekly thing?

It's all a lie.

 

[theboat]

Anyone who ever walks up to a roulette wheel for one bet and losses walks away wishing they would have played the next one instead.

Human element isn’t always paper statistics Jonah Hill

 

[GoHawks12345]

Human element isn’t always paper statistics Jonah Hill

So who I am from that movie? Jonah Hill is already taken... Someone who obviously agrees with Jonah Hill. Believes in him before anyone else.

Any possibilities come to mind?

 

[PCHawk]

One thing I just thought of. If Kirk actually did it on purpose because he studied up on probabilities, then that's a good thing. Even if it didn't really matter here due to lack of time.

 

[theboat]

So who I am from that movie? Jonah Hill is already taken... Someone who obviously agrees with Jonah Hill. Believes in him before anyone else.

Any possibilities come to mind?

Seth rogen

 

[GoHawks12345]

Seth rogen

This proves boat is taking none of this seriously.

 

[SamBrownlee48]

You all suck at game theory.

Kirk made the right call going for 2. All other things being equal, knowing you need two scores with a minute left is a superior position than knowing you needed two scores with no time left.

The best argument to counter is that making it an eight point game puts more pressure on the opponent than a nine point game. Perhaps. But if so, making it a 7 point game would have put even more pressure on them.

In the end, they had to convert a 2 and an onside kick to win the game. They did neither so they lost. But as far as timing of when the 2 pt conversion happens, it is (admittedly marginally in this case) better to know you need another score with X amount of time left than <X amount of time left.

 

[PCHawk]

You all suck at game theory.

Kirk made the right call going for 2. All other things being equal, knowing you need two scores with a minute left is a superior position than knowing you needed two scores with no time left.

The best argument to counter is that making it an eight point game puts more pressure on the opponent than a nine point game. Perhaps. But if so, making it a 7 point game would have put even more pressure on them.

In the end, they had to convert a 2 and an onside kick to win the game. They did neither so they lost. But as far as timing of when the 2 pt conversion happens, it is (admittedly marginally in this case) better to know you need another score with X amount of time left than <X amount of time left.

I disagree. We don't all suck at it.

 

[GoHawks12345]

You all suck at game theory.

Kirk made the right call going for 2. All other things being equal, knowing you need two scores with a minute left is a superior position than knowing you needed two scores with no time left.

The best argument to counter is that making it an eight point game puts more pressure on the opponent than a nine point game. Perhaps. But if so, making it a 7 point game would have put even more pressure on them.

In the end, they had to convert a 2 and an onside kick to win the game. They did neither so they lost. But as far as timing of when the 2 pt conversion happens, it is (admittedly marginally in this case) better to know you need another score with X amount of time left than <X amount of time left.

Looks like the cavalry finally showed up.

 

[theboat]

It’s like bizarro world in here. Kirk Ferentz, master of game theory. Sean Payton, clueless.

 

[theboat]

You all suck at game theory.

Kirk made the right call going for 2. All other things being equal, knowing you need two scores with a minute left is a superior position than knowing you needed two scores with no time left.

The best argument to counter is that making it an eight point game puts more pressure on the opponent than a nine point game. Perhaps. But if so, making it a 7 point game would have put even more pressure on them.

In the end, they had to convert a 2 and an onside kick to win the game. They did neither so they lost. But as far as timing of when the 2 pt conversion happens, it is (admittedly marginally in this case) better to know you need another score with X amount of time left than <X amount of time left.

Except, for the 39th time, all things weren’t equal. Knowing you need two possessions adds ZERO value, when you only have time for one. I’m still waiting for one example of a coach that has done the same. So far I got “chip Kelly probably would even though I’ve never actually watched his games.”