Don't Get All the Love for PSU's Offense

S

Section136

Well-Known Member
All this talk about how improved they are and all the love McGloin is getting doesn't make much sense to me. They have won 4 games in a row against Navy, Temple, Illinois and Northwestern. Here are those teams rankings in pass defense:

Illinois- 53
Temple- 72
Navy- 21
Northwestern- 101

Navy's ranking may be a bit skewed because of he ball control offense they play and some of their opponents play. Other than Navy, PSU hasn't played 1 other Top 50 pass defense on their 4 wins. McGloin will come back down to earth hard in Kinnick Saturday night.
 
I think you are on to the truth here. I watched PSU "highlights" of the games against Navy, Temple, Illinois, and NW. McGloin did complete some passes against these defenses, but to receivers who generally had no one within 5 yards of them. He has underthrown more passes for completion than almost anyone I have seen for a while. One of the Navy touchdown passes, the receiver stopped at the 5 yard line to wait on the ball and still went into the end zone hardly being touched.

Some pressure into the backfield, some even respectable coverage and their "accurate" QB will come down to earth and look like he did the past couple years. They have less running game than nearly anyone we have played, so they are going to have to pass...and from what I have seen in reviewing their games this week, that is going to be dicey for them.

Iowa will get at least 4 sacks...one of which will cause a fumble. The dbacks will get at least one pick. Everyone will then say that PSU is not all that, but they will continue to say that about Iowa as well.

Iowa wins 27-10 to go 3-0 in the conference.
 
Iowa will be the toughest defense that PSU has met so far this year. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan, but Iowa's D is only about the fourth best in the B1G. This in itself is a telling point about Penn State's competion. The only team Penn State has beat with a pulse this year is Northwestern. Granted Northwestern has a good offense but face facts; Northwestern is giving up nearly 400 yards a game. Penn State is giving up more yards a game against inferior competition than Iowa is against better competition.

If Iowa plays the way they have been, which isn't that great on offense, they should still win. But if the offense gets a some drives into the end zone it's going to be a long night for Penn State.
 
I watched McGloin direct PSU to a comeback win over undefeated NW and came away very impressed with his decision-making,and poise under pressure,especially hitting on 5 of 6 4th down plays.
He is leading the league in passing efficiency because he hits almost all those dink and dunk passes that drive our defense crazy,a la NW in the past.

Hopefully,we can shut down their running game completely,and then hope that McGloin makes a mistake or we can pop the ball loose on one of their short patterns.

The experts are all picking PSU for a reason...they are on a roll.
 
JHHawk said:
I watched McGloin direct PSU to a comeback win over undefeated NW and came away very impressed with his decision-making,and poise under pressure,especially hitting on 5 of 6 4th down plays.
He is leading the league in passing efficiency because he hits almost all those dink and dunk passes that drive our defense crazy,a la NW in the past.

Hopefully,we can shut down their running game completely,and then hope that McGloin makes a mistake or we can pop the ball loose on one of their short patterns.

The experts are all picking PSU for a reason...they are on a roll.
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But...as others have already said, it was against Northwestern's defense. I will give McGloin his due if he can do it against a legit defense, while getting some pressure and throwing to receivers who are actually covered--which was not the case in the drive you reference.
 
JHHawk said:
The experts are all picking PSU for a reason...they are on a roll.
Click to expand...

This sentence is my point exactly. They have won 4 in a row predominately against defenses near or in the lower half of the country in pass defense. IIRC, 3 of those wins were in Happy Valley as well.

Iowa is a Top 20 defense and Kinnick will be rocking Saturday night. I think we are a lot more likely to see the PSU of weeks 1 and 2 than the PSU we saw against Illinois or NW.
 
SWIowaHawkeye said:
I think you are on to the truth here. I watched PSU "highlights" of the games against Navy, Temple, Illinois, and NW. McGloin did complete some passes against these defenses, but to receivers who generally had no one within 5 yards of them. He has underthrown more passes for completion than almost anyone I have seen for a while. One of the Navy touchdown passes, the receiver stopped at the 5 yard line to wait on the ball and still went into the end zone hardly being touched.

Some pressure into the backfield, some even respectable coverage and their "accurate" QB will come down to earth and look like he did the past couple years. They have less running game than nearly anyone we have played, so they are going to have to pass...and from what I have seen in reviewing their games this week, that is going to be dicey for them.

Iowa will get at least 4 sacks...one of which will cause a fumble. The dbacks will get at least one pick. Everyone will then say that PSU is not all that, but they will continue to say that about Iowa as well.

Iowa wins 27-10 to go 3-0 in the conference.
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That is a bold prediction my friend. You do realize that Vegas has this game as Iowa by 2.5 pts. Right?
 
JHHawk said:
I watched McGloin direct PSU to a comeback win over undefeated NW and came away very impressed with his decision-making,and poise under pressure,especially hitting on 5 of 6 4th down plays.
He is leading the league in passing efficiency because he hits almost all those dink and dunk passes that drive our defense crazy,a la NW in the past.

Hopefully,we can shut down their running game completely,and then hope that McGloin makes a mistake or we can pop the ball loose on one of their short patterns.

The experts are all picking PSU for a reason...they are on a roll.
Click to expand...

I concur. I certainly don't think PSU are world beaters, but I'm really impressed w/ BOB as a coach - he figured out what his team was and wasn't good at, and he's trying to go w/ what works for them - namely a short, controlled passing game. It should be noted they lost their top RB Belton for a stretch, so their RB's weren't particularly effective, so they naturally turned to McGloin and the passing game. McGloin doesn't have a strong arm, takes some gambles, and nothing he does will earn any style points, but the kid is gutsy as hell and isn't afraid to make mistakes - which he is very prone to do. That said, I'd temper my expectations a little if I was PSU. They haven't played a defense nearly as good as IA's. PSU fans getting excited re their offense and McGloin is comparable to IA fans claiming Weisman was going to win the Heisman after running over CMU and Minny - people were reasonably and justifiably excited, but also most level-headed fans knew to temper their expectations a little until their team played more stout competition. I have no issues w/ a fanbase getting excited for their team, but recognize who you're playing and their relative strengths and weaknesses.
 
JHHawk said:
I watched McGloin direct PSU to a comeback win over undefeated NW and came away very impressed with his decision-making,and poise under pressure,especially hitting on 5 of 6 4th down plays.
He is leading the league in passing efficiency because he hits almost all those dink and dunk passes that drive our defense crazy,a la NW in the past.

Hopefully,we can shut down their running game completely,and then hope that McGloin makes a mistake or we can pop the ball loose on one of their short patterns.

The experts are all picking PSU for a reason...they are on a roll.
Click to expand...

They should be on a roll, after a loss to Virginia, now 2-5. Wins over Navy (3-3), Temple (3-2), Illinois (2-5). They got lucky with NorthWestern at home. 5-6 fourth down conversions. McGloin went 35-51 passes for 282 yards. If he wings that ball around 51 times in Kinnick Iowa's going to get some INT"s.
 
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HawkeyeDenis said:
They should be on a roll, after a loss to Virginia, now 2-5. Wins over Navy (3-3), Temple (3-2), Illinois (2-5). They got lucky with NorthWestern at home. 5-6 fourth down conversions. McGloin went 35-51 passes for 282 yards. If he wings that ball around 51 times in Kinnick Iowa's going to get some INT"s.
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If we see this they're most likely playing from behind and our offense is getting it done on the ground and putting points on the board.
 
Another point is their running game. They have about the same number of yards as Wiesman. Not that Wiesman will be playing. But given the level of competition, this points to a problem that PSU has had for the last couple of years; Their OL isn't the best. And those yards are with three running backs. Iowa's offense has problems, but they are opening holes in the running game.
 
There are indeed some question marks with the PSU passing game, but from what I have seen so far this season - their pass offense resembles the 1980s "Air Coryell" San Diego Chargers when compared to Iowa's passing game.

I'm thinking both teams will struggle to run the ball - and the team with the better passing game will end up winning. That does not bode well for the Hawks. Iowa will need some special teams heroics to go 3-0.
 
I think fans are denigrating NW's defense too much. They have played the run much better this year.
They held Minny to 13 points and that was with M. Gray doing much of the damage before he went down...Iowa missed Gray. Shortell was hapless vs NW.

PSU has a healthy Belton back,and he is their best rb by far.
I think anyone that believes this will not be a very difficult game for Iowa is kidding themselves.
I just hope we can pull out a one point win.
 
JHHawk said:
I think fans are denigrating NW's defense too much. They have played the run much better this year.
They held Minny to 13 points and that was with M. Gray doing much of the damage before he went down...Iowa missed Gray. Shortell was hapless vs NW.

PSU has a healthy Belton back,and he is their best rb by far.
I think anyone that believes this will not be a very difficult game for Iowa is kidding themselves.
I just hope we can pull out a one point win.
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Agree with this. I think PSU compares well to CMU on offense which we all saw give us fits. Accurate experienced QB with decent WRs. PSU has better runningbacks. Obviously PSU defense is about 10x better than CMU defense which is one of the worst in all of FBS. We will need to force some turnovers to win this one...but I thought the same thing against MSU.
 
HawkeyeDenis said:
They should be on a roll, after a loss to Virginia, now 2-5. Wins over Navy (3-3), Temple (3-2), Illinois (2-5). They got lucky with NorthWestern at home. 5-6 fourth down conversions. McGloin went 35-51 passes for 282 yards. If he wings that ball around 51 times in Kinnick Iowa's going to get some INT"s.
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Not all the things you mention above are due to luck. Penn St is very similar to Iowa in that they've played a relatively weak schedule so far and have shown some improvement over the past 4 weeks.
Also, Iowa's defense has looked pretty good recently but it isn't like they've faced a top 20 offense so far this season. I think it will be a very close game with turnovers and special teams being the deciding factor.
 
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