TritonHawkeye
Well-Known Member
Wasn't it just the season before last that the thought was we overachieved?
Does Iowa Underachieve?
- Thread starter Stiles
- Start date
Yes, because we won a lot of close games, something Ferentz doesn't typically do.
DuffMan
Well-Known Member
Stiles
Well-Known Member
We will see in a year or two. Todd Blythe was a sure fire NFL WR according to most ISU fans. I think you are making a lot of assumptions.
Cyclones17
Well-Known Member
I'm just going off what scouts are saying. How about this, after watching the game on Saturday and seeing both teams, do you feel like Iowa has a position in where they have a lot more talent than Iowa State? I didn't see it this year for the 1st in a while. I like Iowa's top 2 WR's more for NFL talent but other than that I thought both teams were even on talent
DuffMan
Well-Known Member
Got it, thanks.
One poster had it right. We overachieve in player development. But then when we have these great, developed players on the field, we don't always cash in. I think you can point squarely at three reasons for that:
1. Player mistakes
2. Mental ability to play from top dog role (both players and coaches)
3. In-game coaching philosophy
The first will always happen. You can coach kids, and teach them from their mistakes. But the kids turn over every 4 years, so you're constantly teaching new kids. if you're leaning on flawless execution to win games, you aren't going to win all the time, period.
The second point is something that I think will occur naturally. Success begets success. As they become comfortable winning games, it will be easier to assume that role.
My biggest issue is the third point. This is the easiest issue to fix, and you can draw a pretty big correlation to it and losing to "inferior" programs. As a few people have pointed out, Ferentz often plays "not to lose". His whole dogma is based on minimizing errors. I have no problem with the philosophy, on the whole. It is probably credited for putting us in winnable situations with teams much better than us. But this is killing us against inferior programs. BHGP has some great articles on the subject recently, given the issues in the ISU game:
Kirk Ferentz and the Myth of the Percentages - Black Heart Gold Pants
Statistical In-Ferentz, week 2: Probability Bites - Black Heart Gold Pants
That fact is, Ferentz is unknowingly playing himself out of a lot of these games. Sometimes going on the offense is the best defense. I wish he would understand that and know when it is better to deviate from his default strategy. I have a feeling this season is going to provide plenty of opportunities to do so.
1. Player mistakes
2. Mental ability to play from top dog role (both players and coaches)
3. In-game coaching philosophy
The first will always happen. You can coach kids, and teach them from their mistakes. But the kids turn over every 4 years, so you're constantly teaching new kids. if you're leaning on flawless execution to win games, you aren't going to win all the time, period.
The second point is something that I think will occur naturally. Success begets success. As they become comfortable winning games, it will be easier to assume that role.
My biggest issue is the third point. This is the easiest issue to fix, and you can draw a pretty big correlation to it and losing to "inferior" programs. As a few people have pointed out, Ferentz often plays "not to lose". His whole dogma is based on minimizing errors. I have no problem with the philosophy, on the whole. It is probably credited for putting us in winnable situations with teams much better than us. But this is killing us against inferior programs. BHGP has some great articles on the subject recently, given the issues in the ISU game:
Kirk Ferentz and the Myth of the Percentages - Black Heart Gold Pants
Statistical In-Ferentz, week 2: Probability Bites - Black Heart Gold Pants
That fact is, Ferentz is unknowingly playing himself out of a lot of these games. Sometimes going on the offense is the best defense. I wish he would understand that and know when it is better to deviate from his default strategy. I have a feeling this season is going to provide plenty of opportunities to do so.
83Hawk
Banned
I never said they did.
RocknRollface
Well-Known Member
The overall talent this year is not that much different. Iowa is pretty young and ISU is pretty veteran. Advantage ISU.
That being said Iowa has way more guys who will be drafted.
You will have one for sure in KO, and maybe 1 or 2 more in hicks and Johnson.
Iowa will have between 5-8 drafted.
PatrickAdamovicz
Well-Known Member
Again, lets revisit this at the end of the year. Iowa is playing quite a few young players that I believe are much more talented than ISU's veteran players. The Blythe comparison is spot on. I also remember many people thinking Arnaud was much better than Stanzi a couple of years ago. One is now in the NFL and the other is employed by Cyclonefantic. Again, lets wait to see how the season's go for both teams and how the players develope.
Cyclones17
Well-Known Member
I will take that bet. Who are the 5-8 Hawks that get drafted this year?
AcctHawk99
Well-Known Member
I don't know if 8 Hawks will get drafted, but McNutt, Rieff, Prater are locks to get drafted (assuming Rieff goes like Bulaga). Daniels is probably close as well to a lock. Nielsen, Binns, Zusevics, Gettis (NFL loves Iowa lineman) will get looks as well. Even with Iowa's youth they will get for sure 3, Daniels is probably close to that group bringing it to 4 so if 1 of the other 4 I mentioned gets drafted that would be 5 on a weaker Iowa team than we had last year which had one of the biggest drafts of any college team.
AcctHawk99
Well-Known Member
on the topic of Ferentz though, his decision making regarding handling the clock is by far his biggest shortcoming as a coach. How he thought kicking a FG and the D would hold ISU after giving up all those points is beyond me and why he didn't take a shot at the end of the 4th is another call to not lose as opposed to trying to win. The blackheartgoldpants stats were interesting to see regarding how Iowa has done so poorly in tight games. Iowa has been a top 20 team the last decade, but they have left meaningful improvement on the table as well I feel.
azhawkeyefan
Well-Known Member
We overachieve against better competition and undarachieve against inferior competition. It's a great feeling going into a game against teams with more talent and knowing that chances are it's going to be a competitive game with the Hawks having a great shot to win. I like our game planning and strategy in these games and wouldn't change it for anything.
My biggest issue is the games against inferior opponents and letting those teams hang around. Once we get up by 14 points it seems the coaches let off the gas. I'd love to see us get even more aggressive and try to put away the team. Part of player development is being able to get your reserves in the game during a blowout, how often does that happen with the Hawks? Rarely! We know how good this staff is at developing players in the offseason and in practice, I would think that actual playing time would only help further this process along.
And when it comes to talent, Iowa > ISU. It was a great game that came down to the last play. ISU outplayed Iowa. Does that mean they have more talent? No. Did Utah have more talent that Alabama when they blew them out in the Sugar Bowl in '09? Absolutely not, but they outplayed them in every facet of that particular game. In some years the talent disparity between Iowa and ISU will be narrowed, this is one of those years. Iowa will always have more "talent" though.
My biggest issue is the games against inferior opponents and letting those teams hang around. Once we get up by 14 points it seems the coaches let off the gas. I'd love to see us get even more aggressive and try to put away the team. Part of player development is being able to get your reserves in the game during a blowout, how often does that happen with the Hawks? Rarely! We know how good this staff is at developing players in the offseason and in practice, I would think that actual playing time would only help further this process along.
And when it comes to talent, Iowa > ISU. It was a great game that came down to the last play. ISU outplayed Iowa. Does that mean they have more talent? No. Did Utah have more talent that Alabama when they blew them out in the Sugar Bowl in '09? Absolutely not, but they outplayed them in every facet of that particular game. In some years the talent disparity between Iowa and ISU will be narrowed, this is one of those years. Iowa will always have more "talent" though.
spudhawk
Well-Known Member
I am sorry but on this ISU team right now you have 4 legit NFL players- Knott, Osemele, Klein and Hicks. Johnson and Benton have a shot but are unlikely to be more than camp bodies. The young safety played out of his mind last week and is worth watching. None of your skill players look to be NFL caliber. Iowa has at least 4 players that could be drafted this season-
McNutt, Prater, Rieff and Nielsen are locks. Zusevics, Herman, Binns, and Daniels all have chances to either be drafted or get into camp. ISU is not more talented than Iowa.
Cyclones17
Well-Known Member
I never said ISU is more talented than Iowa. I said that this years Iowa team doesn't appear to have more talent than ISU's team for the 1st time in a while. Looked really equal out there in terms of talent.
And I will bet you some meaningless internet bet
that Leonard Johnson gets drafted. Benton will get a strong look too. Both have better chances than AJ KleinDepends if you mean underachieve over the course of a season or if you mean single games? I believe it all balances out. As far as the season goes I do not think we underachieve. This staff develops players extremely well. Last ten years we have finished in the top ten 4 times, top 25 five times. We have won 6 bowl games. Have had I believe 47 players drafted. I dont think we underachieve at all from a season outlook. Kirk gets us up for the big ones. Big ones being bowl games! The Iowa States of the world will remain a lower tier team as they only get up for one game.
Wreckonize
Well-Known Member
Binns and Daniels are not the players many think they are. As stated above they will more than likely get drafted but I dont see them as NFL caliber players....... Daniels needs some serious cardio he gets tired on long drives
