Deusce Hogan In Portal

[dagdaj]

You're talking in circles.

I'm a moron. Explain for me how athletes transferring will cause this bubble you're talking about to potentially burst.

I want to know what reasoning you're using (other than Fed-speak vaguery) to decide that athletes being free to transfer will burst a financial "bubble."

Don't speak in generalities, use specifics. How is athletes being able to transfer creating false value, and how would athletes being able to transfer cause it to burst. Give us an example.

These are not generalities. They are specifics.

I'll try again.

Athletes transferring are not the cause of the bubble. They will not cause the bubble to burst. The volume of transfers are the result of the bubble. There is nothing wrong with an athlete transferring. I would. You would. We all would. (Read that again, if you need to.)

Because....
NFL salaries have increased massively over the years. Beyond actually playing the sport after college, opportunities and earnings directly related to football activities for former college players has increased vastly over the years. Coaching, broadcasting, scouting, player development, equipment manufacturers. The more you start, the better chance you have at all that. The value of starting has risen. Because the value of football has risen.

Here's the bubble...

Football is overvalued. NFL teams are specifically, fiscally, and measurably overvalued. Aside from a handful, NFL teams don't generate vast net profits. Sure, they all make some, but not nearly what people think they do. Specifics? Hard, because Green Bay is the only one we get legit numbers from and their structure is quite different. Probably below $20-$30 million net profit for most. That's post EBITDA (which is important considering stadium loans and depreciation). The Bills are the lowest valued team at about $2.25 BILLION. That's like Tesla turning a $1 billion profit and being valued at $1 trillion. It don't add up. The value of an NFL team is realized when you sell it. IF, it is worth more than what you paid for it. That's the bubble.

What can pop the bubble is the continued decrease in youth and high school participation. And the general financial troubles in post secondary education. As well as some other things. Either burst bubble or contraction results in fewer opportunities and potential earnings related to football for starting players. Therefore the value of that starting gig drops for large swathes of players. And therefore they don't choose to transfer as much.

Again, it's not the transferring that's concerning to me. It's the environment that causes the volume of it.