Deace on odds...

HawkInATX

HawkInATX

Well-Known Member
I love the podcasts, love the commentary you guys give... but I need to correct Steve Deace on something.

In the B1G weekend podcast, Deace kept saying that over 130 years of Iowa football, the odds of Iowa going 9-0 is super small. This is true. The odds of Iowa going 9-0 in any given season are low when you look at the season as a whole. Yes. True. However, you are confusing the odds of winning one game with the odds of one particular outcome of a nine game stretch. We are already at 8-0, so the odds of Iowa going 9-0 are equal to their odds of winning the ninth game. So if Vegas favors Iowa in this game, even if it is only by a touchdown, it means Vegas feels that the chances of Iowa going 9-0 are over 50%.

Consider a coinflip. 50% chance of heads (winning) every flip, but the chance of flipping 9 heads in a raw is .5^9 = .19%. But if you flip 8 heads in a row, the percent chance of flipping heads in the ninth flip is still 50%.

I just wanted to clear that up.
 


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Yep, he was wrong on that one and I think he was just stretching for a reason. History, the lack of 9-0 starts, has nothing to do with whether we beat Indiana or not on Saturday. I think the real reason he picked Indiana is that he's spooked by the low spread.
 


hwk23 said:
Yep, he was wrong on that one and I think he was just stretching for a reason. History, the lack of 9-0 starts, has nothing to do with whether we beat Indiana or not on Saturday. I think the real reason he picked Indiana is that he's spooked by the low spread.
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Yes, that, his understanding of probability and statistics is off, and he is a bit of a winer at times.

Vegas doesn't put a -6.5 line and expect it to be +something. Our performance last week is one reason Vegas has the line here instead of -9 or more. We'll cover and then we get to hear Deace's next group of thoughts, hopefully less misguided:)
 
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He's also wrong in his prediction. #1 we won't lose. #2 our margin of victory "is gonna be YUUUUUUGE!"
 


Deace is the same guy who counts pushes as wins in gambling, doesn't surprise me that he doesn't have a great understanding of probabilities either.
 








HawkeyeMike23 said:
Deace is the same guy who counts pushes as wins in gambling, doesn't surprise me that he doesn't have a great understanding of probabilities either.
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The New York Times did a write-up on him the other day. One of the things they mentioned was that Deace got in trouble with a local bookie in Michigan, so he came back to Iowa.

The first thing I thought when I read that was that he was probably counting pushes as wins with this bookie too. :D
 


History has no bearing on whether or not Iowa will win this game, start 9-0 in any given season, etc. Sure, for Iowa, starting 9-0 isn't likely. But it all goes back to "just because it's never happened before, doesn't mean it can't happen now". Iowa has never gone 10-0, right? That doesn't mean there's a 0% chance Iowa wins their next two games and gets there THIS year.
 


SpiderRico said:
The New York Times did a write-up on him the other day. One of the things they mentioned was that Deace got in trouble with a local bookie in Michigan, so he came back to Iowa.

The first thing I thought when I read that was that he was probably counting pushes as wins with this bookie too. :D
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Wow I thought you were joking, but that's really in there. As for the rest of that article...yikes.
 


Deace wrong? Actually Deace right is an oxymoron on par with military intelligence. This is a guy who heading into last year thought that Devon Gardner was the best QB in the Big 10 and was the highest rated or draftable QB. Alabama didn't belong in the top 10 was among his other revelations.

I also like that he picked Indiana this week. That's a positive.
 


1977Hawkeye said:
History has no bearing on whether or not Iowa will win this game, start 9-0 in any given season, etc. Sure, for Iowa, starting 9-0 isn't likely. But it all goes back to "just because it's never happened before, doesn't mean it can't happen now". Iowa has never gone 10-0, right? That doesn't mean there's a 0% chance Iowa wins their next two games and gets there THIS year.
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Exactly....just like a 100 year flood does not mean it will happen 100 years from now.
 


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