CFP Rankings 11/21

[RobHowe]

Iowa dropped one spot and will have trouble with upward mobility even with a win at Nebraska. That's the downside of playing in this crappy division.

I'm guessing whoever wins Mich-OSU this week will jump Georgia, which plays Georgia Tech this week, in the next CFP rankings.

That means the Hawkeyes will get a shot a No. 1 in the B1G Championship.

The Hawkeyes are 0-9-1 against No. 1. They came just short against Ohio State in 1964 in Iowa City, 21-19. And there was that famous 14-14 tie against Notre Dame’s “Fainting Irish” in 1953.

 

[Glass1/2fullguy]

The west is atrocious this year however the upside is the fact the Hawks are even ranked to begin with. If they were in the east division they’d more than likely have at least 3 losses and not ranked at all. Nebraska’s defense is salty so it’ll be interesting to see if they can pull out another close victory in Lincoln and head to Indy w/ a 10-2 record and a lot of confidence. Then if the offense can at least sustain some drives against either Mich or OSU who knows what can happen. If the offense can’t sustain drives I feel it’ll b much worse than the PSU game earlier this year and more like a replica of the 2021 championship game.

 

[STILLBUSTER]

I was very surprised when they jumped to #16 last week (from like #22?) with a shutout of Rutgers. Got me thinking ... were it not for what will eternally be the infamous "wave job" and were this 2024 (all things equal, of course), Hawks would probably be around #12 and qualifying for the playoffs!

Frickin' unbelievable considering this offense (as he shakes his head in utter amazement and despair).

 

[eyekwah]

Iowa dropped one spot and will have trouble with upward mobility even with a win at Nebraska. That's the downside of playing in this crappy division.

I've been going over NCAA Statistical Team Rankings of all the Big Ten teams and it may not be as crappy as people have been lead to believe. Here are the team defense national rankings for each:
1- Michigan , 2- PSU , 3-OSU , 7-IA, 11- RU, 15- NE , 34- MD , 35- WI , 38-NW , 56- MN , 59- MSU , 62- IL ,
77- PU , and 84- IU... Six of the top fifteen defenses are members of the conference.

When you look at team rankings for offense you get an entirely different look. The reason the west division looks so bad is that the offenses have to play formidable defenses almost every week. Here are the offense rankings for each:
35 - OSU , 53- MI , 62- IL , 64- MD , 73- PUR , 74- PSU , 79 - WI , 103 - IU , 114 - NE , 118 - MSU , 122 -MN , 123 - RU, 125 - NW and 130 - IA. In scoring offense only OSU (24) and Michigan (11) are in the top 25.

In non-conference play the west division had 14 W's and 7 L's. In conference play OSU and MI didn't always score blowout wins against west division teams. There are examples of where they had less than 30 points. I think the perception of the west is based on factors related to the the East always winning the championship and the low scoring games. This raises the question do the offenses make the defenses look good or the reverse? Iowa's win over Mississippi State in a bowl game is kind of a hint to the answer.

 

[RobHowe]

Fair points to consider.

That Mississippi State team was built like a B1G team with that D. It turned out to be a good matchup for Iowa. Then Mike Leach showed up.

I think the defense in the B1G this season is excellent (not breaking any news). But they also aren't scared by the potential threat of these offenses, particularly the quarterbacks, save a couple.

The coaches know that. And more of the teams are playing "Hawkeye Ball" - conservative play calling and battling for field position - "let the other guy F up and we'll take advantage."

All that said, there's really no way to know if low scoring has more to do with good defense or bad offense.

 

[HuckFinn]

I like to see the crossover records so I can check out the domination by the East, as is traditionally thought to be the case. Generally, OSU and Mich, with a little (very little) help from PSU, skew the crossover records. And we all recognize that the eventual BT champ will come from the East. Duh. The East has two blue bloods and PSU, which is a “blue blood light.” Thanks, James Franklin.

My point is that labeling the East as great, and the West as a dumpster fire , does not include the nuances of the comparisons. Drop OSU and Mich out of the picture for a minute and look at the remainder 12 teams. Now predict the conference race. Would East dominate West? Not likely.

Of course this group as revised would not likely have a team or teams in the playoff picture. I get it. It would be an interesting race, I think.

So, I would argue that BT football in general, and not the West, is a dumpster fire except for 2&1/2 teams. Right? And to take one more step, per many posters on HN, Iowa does not deserve any respect unless they beat the 2 blue bloods. Right?

 

[RobHowe]

I think you make valid points just like the earlier poster, Huck. Can’t prove you wrong or right.

Like you said, there is nuance. Where and when games are played, health of teams at game time, etc.

Breaking it into tiers, I have…

Top: OSU & Michigan

Middle: Penn St.

Then everybody else.

Right now, I can make a case that Iowa, Maryland and NW are the top of the last tier.

I am glad divisions are going away. I hope for more balance. Iowa should be tested more, which can help in reaching the 12 team playoff. Which, let’s face it, will be significantly easier than winning the B1G.

Iowa is the lowest-ranked, 2-loss team this week with three 3-loss teams from 3 different conferences ahead of it. You could claim bias and there is in voting, but I think these rankings are a clear reflection of how the B1G West is viewed nationally. And that matters.

The Hawkeyes have faced a weak schedule according to analytics. I think there’s some perceived bias there as well. But it matters all the same.

Moving forward, Iowa won’t be carrying the stigma of the “shitty West.” Win 10 regular season games in the new B1G and you’re not mid teens in rankings.

Good discussion.

I’ll leave you with this - what is Iowa’s best win this season?

 

[hawkdrummer1]

I think you make valid points just like the earlier poster, Huck. Can’t prove you wrong or right.

Like you said, there is nuance. Where and when games are played, health of teams at game time, etc.

Breaking it into tiers, I have…

Top: OSU & Michigan

Middle: Penn St.

Then everybody else.

Right now, I can make a case that Iowa, Maryland and NW are the top of the last tier.

I am glad divisions are going away. I hope for more balance. Iowa should be tested more, which can help in reaching the 12 team playoff. Which, let’s face it, will be significantly easier than winning the B1G.

Iowa is the lowest-ranked, 2-loss team this week with three 3-loss teams from 3 different conferences ahead of it. You could claim bias and there is in voting, but I think these rankings are a clear reflection of how the B1G West is viewed nationally. And that matters.

The Hawkeyes have faced a weak schedule according to analytics. I think there’s some perceived bias there as well. But it matters all the same.

Moving forward, Iowa won’t be carrying the stigma of the “shitty West.” Win 10 regular season games in the new B1G and you’re not mid teens in rankings.

Good discussion.

I’ll leave you with this - what is Iowa’s best win this season?

Temping to say @ Wisconsin, but this year's version of the Badgers isn't the Wisconsin team we're used to seeing. I'd have to say Rutgers. The obvious reason is that the offense turned in a good game, but Rutgers also came in with the leading rusher in the league and the Hawks shut him down. It was a balanced win. Case could also be made for @ISU.

Tough call.