CBS mailbag - how will the Hawks do?

[SpecialKHawk]

With all the variables...new coaches...turnover in positions..etc etc..my take is this.

If Ferentz really is a great coach, this is the kind of season where he proves it. If it's 6-6 or 7-5 again...then he's not all that he's cracked up to be. It's seasons like this, where "average" is the consensus, that define a coach. with 6-6 or 7-5 "talent"...do you just plod along...or do you get that extra 1-2 wins out of our players?

The reason Ferentz makes "the big bucks"...is that he's expected to make those 6-6 or 7-5 teams perform at a 9-3 level. If not...he's as overpaid as some would assert.

This is the best post I have seen.

This is the intrigue of this coming season to me. Yes, the schedule is kind but we have a combination of factors that point to a 5-7 to 7-5 season at best; lack of talent in two deeps in spots due to attrition (both graduation of key players and defections from past recruiting classes), lack of experience in other areas and a shake-up in the coaching staff requiring time to re-establish continuity.

If we win the first 4 then I'll be gladly eat crow because there will be a solid chance then to get the extra 1-2 wins for a much better season. The first two games to me are the key to the season. I don't see us winning both and really believe we'll lose the first two.

 

[Hawkfromnorwalk]

This is the best post I have seen.

This is the intrigue of this coming season to me. Yes, the schedule is kind but we have a combination of factors that point to a 5-7 to 7-5 season at best; lack of talent in two deeps in spots due to attrition (both graduation of key players and defections from past recruiting classes), lack of experience in other areas and a shake-up in the coaching staff requiring time to re-establish continuity.

If we win the first 4 then I'll be gladly eat crow because there will be a solid chance then to get the extra 1-2 wins for a much better season. The first two games to me are the key to the season. I don't see us winning both and really believe we'll lose the first two.

This is absolutely baffling and makes me wonder if you're just trolling. NIU lost a TON from the team they had last year, including their QB. I'm not saying this will be a cakewalk, but I expect Iowa to win by at least a TD if not more. As for ISU, this is a toss up in terms of talent and experience. However, it's at Kinnick, the great equalizer. This should be a win but in terms of the non-con schedule, this is the only game I can hypothetically see us losing, and even still I don't see it.

 

[gohawkz]

Ok. Quick hit on the offense. Losing Marvin is a big loss, however Davis and KMM should fill in nicely. The passing game however will benefit much more from increased production from the TE position. CJ's production was barely noticed the first half of the season. That will change this year. The combo of those three will make up for the loss of McNutt.

The OL took a hit in the offseason, there is no doubt. However, after watching Kirk the last 13 seasons I have learned one thing, he always puts together good OLs. Losing Reiff and Gettis hurts, but I see a TON of potential, both in the starters returning and the youth coming up, like Scherff and Donnal. There will be a drop off, but not substantial.

Running back is going to take a hit, no doubt there. However look at what we faced coming into 2009. Our RBs versus UNI were Paki and an unknown ARob. We payed the rest of the season with a combo of ARob and Wegher. That's all we had. This year, we have two guys with some experience in Johnson and Bullock, an older yet inexperienced back in walk on Dawson, and raw talent in incoming recruits Garmon and Hill. We only need a serviceable running game. I think we get that with what we have.

Contrary to popular belief, JVB was not a bad QBlast year. His stats were pretty good for a first year starter. His only issues, bad decisions in the face of a blitz and disappearing on the road. Symptoms of a first year starter. I don't see his stats getting worse. He will be fine.

So this is why I have a decent feeling about our offense. We won't be world beaters, but we will be just fine. And the schedule sets up nicely as far as a learning curve to get things in order.

His stats weren't pretty good, they were great..he does need to step up on the road and make plays himself...

It amazes me..you'll have a game when there are 20 different reasons we lose...the defense plays like crap...the o-line lets the pass rushers run through unblocked...the receivers drop balls that hit them in their chest, but it's easy to tell who the moronic idiots who know nothing about football are. They blame it on the quarterback.

 

[SpecialKHawk]

Ok. Quick hit on the offense. Losing Marvin is a big loss, however Davis and KMM should fill in nicely. The passing game however will benefit much more from increased production from the TE position. CJ's production was barely noticed the first half of the season. That will change this year. The combo of those three will make up for the loss of McNutt.

The OL took a hit in the offseason, there is no doubt. However, after watching Kirk the last 13 seasons I have learned one thing, he always puts together good OLs. Losing Reiff and Gettis hurts, but I see a TON of potential, both in the starters returning and the youth coming up, like Scherff and Donnal. There will be a drop off, but not substantial.

Running back is going to take a hit, no doubt there. However look at what we faced coming into 2009. Our RBs versus UNI were Paki and an unknown ARob. We payed the rest of the season with a combo of ARob and Wegher. That's all we had. This year, we have two guys with some experience in Johnson and Bullock, an older yet inexperienced back in walk on Dawson, and raw talent in incoming recruits Garmon and Hill. We only need a serviceable running game. I think we get that with what we have.

Contrary to popular belief, JVB was not a bad QBlast year. His stats were pretty good for a first year starter. His only issues, bad decisions in the face of a blitz and disappearing on the road. Symptoms of a first year starter. I don't see his stats getting worse. He will be fine.

So this is why I have a decent feeling about our offense. We won't be world beaters, but we will be just fine. And the schedule sets up nicely as far as a learning curve to get things in order.

Thanks ... this was good insight.

I'm not sold on the WR's and TE's just yet. I do agree that this might be the strength along with JVB of the offense. I do see JVB playing his best football this season.

I do agree we normally come up with a pretty good o-line are there is some experience among the players filling holes. Keep in mind that we lost not only Rieff & Gettis but our RT in Zuess as well, so in essence 3 starters. If for some reason this year's line though is not solid look out -> if we can't protect JVB and cannot run the football effectively - ouch.

In terms of the RB I do agree we will likely find someone who is at least serviceable. The blocking in pass protections and ball security aspect is a worry. I'll also point out that Wegher was a part-time RB and was banged up by the regular season's end of 2009. Point being the position takes a beating, especially for a true frosh. A-Rob also had the benefit of a red-shirt season at least running against Angerer, Clayborne, etc. on the scout team. Our running game and offense was nothing to brag about in 2009 -> defense and special teams more than carried the mail in a number of tight, low-scoring games (along with some late game Stanzi heroics).

 

[SpecialKHawk]

This is absolutely baffling and makes me wonder if you're just trolling. NIU lost a TON from the team they had last year, including their QB. I'm not saying this will be a cakewalk, but I expect Iowa to win by at least a TD if not more. As for ISU, this is a toss up in terms of talent and experience. However, it's at Kinnick, the great equalizer. This should be a win but in terms of the non-con schedule, this is the only game I can hypothetically see us losing, and even still I don't see it.

First of all don't ever call me a troll. I don't have a huge post count but I follow this board often and post when I feel like it. I'm a season ticket holder to both football and basketball. If you want to go toe-to-toe on program knowlege go ahead.

I'm just realistic and respect how difficult it is to win in major college football. I want to have intellegent conversation about the game of football removing blindness for my own team.

Valid point on NIU... we should beat them but it's interesting how you point out what they lost but when I point out what we lost,,,,we are able to overcome. I would not doubt a 'W' against NIU if this game was in Kinnick.

I can also point back to 2007 when I was sitting in the stands at a home game in Kinnick and we lost to a MAC team with a bowl game trip on the line. It does happen.

 

[Stanzi]

I hope you are right about the offense....

Here's a few items to consider
1. Lost our best WR -> drafted and made countless big plays (record setter)
2. Lost our best Offensive Lineman -> first round pick
3. Lost our top RB -> transfer out (1400 + yds from scrimmage)
4. Retained our top quality QB - no proven back-up if he goes down even for a game
5. New Coordinator running a moderation of familiar scheme -> X Factor

On the defensive side of the ball I believe we would have a potential Top 20 defense worthy of carrying this year's team to a better record if we were returning an experienced and healthy D-Line. Although I like the young talent, it is way too much to expect results from freshman and red-shirt freshman in the trenches in major college football. When you can't stop anyone one up front in the trenches it negates any talent you have in the LB's and secondary. In addition, James morris has to show me much, much more than he has the first two years at LB as well (he may but it remains to be seen). The defense was one of the worst statisically in the KF era last season it included three NFL drafted players and another quality 5th year Sr. d-lineman. New position coaches and coordinators as well.

Again I see a lot of trouble this season. If JB goes down, we will be begging for 5 wins.

Here's my W-L ...
L - NIU
L - ISU
W - UNI
W - Central Michigan
W - Minnesota
L - MSU
W - PSU
L - NW
L - Indiana
W- Purdue
L - Mich
W - Nebby

6-6 at best... we usually beat one team we shouldn't and lose to one we should not under any circumstances in these type of years.

If we lose to NIU I won't watch/attend another game all season. There's no way we lose to an NIU team that was decimated by graduation. I also don't see us losing to ISU, and I damn sure don't see us losing to Indiana. How you have us losing to Indiana and beating Nebraska is beyond me.

 

[Stanzi]

First of all don't ever call me a troll. I don't have a huge post count but I follow this board often and post when I feel like it. I'm a season ticket holder to both football and basketball. If you want to go toe-to-toe on program knowlege go ahead.

I'm just realistic and respect how difficult it is to win in major college football. I want to have intellegent conversation about the game of football removing blindness for my own team.

Valid point on NIU... we should beat them but it's interesting how you point out what they lost but when I point out what we lost,,,,we are able to overcome. I would not doubt a 'W' against NIU if this game was in Kinnick.

I can also point back to 2007 when I was sitting in the stands at a home game in Kinnick and we lost to a MAC team with a bowl game trip on the line. It does happen.

NIU lost more than we did, and we are more talented to begin with. It's as simple as that. We will win that game handily.

 

[mikesright]

NIU lost more than we did, and we are more talented to begin with. It's as simple as that. We will win that game handily.

Plus its basically going to be a home game! There will be 55,000 hawk fans in Soldier Field. Hell, Jake Christiansen couldn't even f up against NIU when we played them last.

I see eight wins in that schedule myself. People also don't see it now, but Iowa has enough talent on the defensive line to be competitive in every game this season. This season is a total crapshoot, every team in our division has major flaws, MSU has a new QB, loses a lot on the DL, Michigan loses a lot on the OL and DL, Nebraska might lose the least but they haven't shown they can carry any momentum with Pelini as HC. Minny and Northwestern we should be wary of but they're the cellar dwellers this year.

 

[spudhawk]

I hate to be a broken record, but Northern Illinois is going to really suck this year. They lost a NFL caliber QB, top rusher, key receivers, 4 multi year starting lineman and gave up over 30 ppg in the MAC! Iowa will not lose a defacto home game to a team that has even more glaring losses than us.

Iowa will not lose to Indiana. The Hoosiers may not win a game this season- OOC included. They are basically starting from scratch and will start the fewest amount of upper classmen in the league.

Some of you guys have a few valid reasons why Iowa could struggle, but most of you have no perspective on who we are going to play. 8-4 is the floor barring an injury to JVB, or an extreme run on one position of strength like the linebackolypse of '09 or the AIRBHG's triumphant 2004.

 

[SpecialKHawk]

I think u all are probably right on NiU.

No two years are exactly the same but the intrigue of this year is can KF finally get this program to win all games they should win against perceived weaker/less talented programs?

I would have not have believed we could have lost back-2-back games against Minnesota, 5 in a row to Northwestern until last year, a dropped pass from getting beat at Indiana recently, some of the ISU losses, home loss to a mediocre Western Michigan,,, etc.

 

[BSpringsteen]

I think that if JVB becomes significantly more accurate, learns not to lock into a receiver and has far more pocket presence, than we will have a good QB.

I think that De'Andre Johnson will end up being good enough that teams will have to at least respect the run.

I think that if Keenan Davis gets better hands, than he and CJF will be a fearsome receiving duo.

I think our OL will be good.

I think our DL will struggle as much as has been suggested, but if we happen to start 5-0 (which I don't think will happen) they will be playing with a lot of confidence and will be growing into the role.

I think our Back 7 will be top third in the league.

Bottom line, MSU, Michigan, Purdue and Nebraska are all going to be tough games, and I think that all our likely losses. Purdue could be a sleeper this year.

I think that ISU, Northwestern, Penn State and Minnesota are toss ups.

I think that Norhern, CMU, UNI Indiana are likely wins.

I don't think that we will be anywhere near good enough to look past ISU, JNU or Sota.

If I were to predict at this instant, I would predict 6-6 with losses to ISU, Penn State, JNU, the Michigans and Nebraska.

 

[HawkeyeGold]

Does everyone think that we lose at home to isu?

 

[HawkeyeHypnosis]

No. I expect we beat the cryclones.

 

[ISUer]

I got Iowa between 5-7 and 7-5. Quarterback position with JVB is as good as anytime under Stanzi. Running back is as big a question mark as ever in the Ferentz era with the lack of depth. You dont replace 1,400 with true freshman. Offensive line will improve by the second half of the year but wont be to the level of last season. But still better than average. Wide receiver will be alright. Davis is still just alright but MM is a star on the rise. Defensive line will be as bad as anytime under Ferentz. Linebackers will be pretty good but will have to overcome the lack of a defensive line and will be caught out of position a lot and will be at a high risk for injury. Secondary will come around in the second half of the season and could be good.