CBS - Further Disruption Coming - D. Dodd

[dagdaj]

Dramatic collapse is way overstated, but it will cause some pain and hardship. I have long said that Japan is the canary in the coalmine for the entire industrialized West. It is still a great place. The rural areas are going through a bad spell and people there have to basically give away real estate now, but the day to day life is fine. Everything is built on Excel files that have perpetual growth. No one's model assumes anything ever going down. That mindset has to change. Trees don't grow infinitely into the sky. The biggest issues will be taking care of retirees and maintaining infrastructure across a smaller population base. It ends up costing more on a per capita basis.

So on board with this. And I think it seeps into football. And college football. The exploding volumes of money for college football are built on those same Excel sheets assuming that perpetual growth.

There's nothing (apart from the fact that Social Security ABSOLUTELY needs to be addressed/radically changed) specific we need to do. Nothing in this is inherently bad and there's plenty of good to come from it all. But you're dead on. If we don't adjust the mindset that it's coming and things will change we'll have troubles. College football can survive when the money begins to shrink. But it can't survive by trying to go bigger. It will have to dial back. I just hope that doesn't create that negative feedback loop. It doesn't need to happen. I trust us as people to deal with all this, the wisdom of the masses and all. I don't always trust "them". You know. "Them" who sit behind desks and run TV networks or sports conferences or serve in public office and fail to see reality.

 

[okeefe4prez]

So on board with this. And I think it seeps into football. And college football. The exploding volumes of money for college football are built on those same Excel sheets assuming that perpetual growth.

There's nothing (apart from the fact that Social Security ABSOLUTELY needs to be addressed/radically changed) specific we need to do. Nothing in this is inherently bad and there's plenty of good to come from it all. But you're dead on. If we don't adjust the mindset that it's coming and things will change we'll have troubles. College football can survive when the money begins to shrink. But it can't survive by trying to go bigger. It will have to dial back. I just hope that doesn't create that negative feedback loop. It doesn't need to happen. I trust us as people to deal with all this, the wisdom of the masses and all. I don't always trust "them". You know. "Them" who sit behind desks and run TV networks or sports conferences or serve in public office and fail to see reality.

What I believe is happening is we have now entered the phase of our society where these punkass Millennial kids are the keepers of the excel files. These kids grew up wearing bike helmets in Cul-de-Sacia USA with a lot of helicopter parenting going on in the background and these kids have absolutely zero frame of reference of how "average" people live. And literally none of them are willing to deviate from the groupthink of the day. They will just parrot back what the mob says and act like they are rebels. "DEFUND THE POLICE." Crap like that (omitted to keep away from politics). So none of them are going to challenge the models.

These kids build the models and wow the boomers, who are still struggling to turn their computers on. The models have some ridiculous CAGR and voila, the future is perfect and everyone will be rich. They can't defend any assumptions in the models because education has morphed from analysis to regurgitation and they don't understand the underlying assumptions. I guarandamntee you that every single major media company that has a streaming service went through this process. Little Xander built out this beautiful model with some fixed CAGR of subscription growth and price increases every two years. But Little Xander was blind to the fact that while he built out a model cloning Netflix's subscriber numbers and adjusting a bit downward because Netflix had that "first mover advantage" and over on the other side of LA or NYC 6 other companies were doing the exact same thing. If you mashed all of the models together collectively these jackasses concluded that by 2030 the average American house would spend $300 a month on streaming shit. And now that it is clear that their projections were wildly off and cable is dying these guys are shitting their pants and have absolutely no clue what to do.

The Big Ten deal with some games possibly on Paramount Plus or Peacock are a prime example of total desperation to drive viewers to the platforms. "Hey, you know what people watch and will pay for? Northwestern versus Rutgers football games. Let's put those on Peacock. Then the fans will subscribe and our numbers will go up in the next 10-K." I think they're going to be sorely disappointed at how little value there will be in media rights of the bottom tier games, particularly as the death rate of the Boomers starts accelerating here in the next few years.

 

[eyekwah]

So on board with this. And I think it seeps into football. And college football. The exploding volumes of money for college football are built on those same Excel sheets assuming that perpetual growth.

There's nothing (apart from the fact that Social Security ABSOLUTELY needs to be addressed/radically changed) specific we need to do. Nothing in this is inherently bad and there's plenty of good to come from it all. But you're dead on. If we don't adjust the mindset that it's coming and things will change we'll have troubles. College football can survive when the money begins to shrink. But it can't survive by trying to go bigger. It will have to dial back. I just hope that doesn't create that negative feedback loop. It doesn't need to happen. I trust us as people to deal with all this, the wisdom of the masses and all. I don't always trust "them". You know. "Them" who sit behind desks and run TV networks or sports conferences or serve in public office and fail to see reality.

I'll soon be 76, which puts me in the earliest baby boomer group. In my span of time I've seen limited substitution football morph to the present platoon football. I've seen the NCAA lose control of television rights to conferences gaining control. I've witnessed the end of segregated southern college football teams. Never mind all the different offensive and defensive schemes coaches have deployed. All those things created interest and demand for televised sports. We may have reached the point of saturation. In my case I limit myself to a couple of college football games on Saturday and during the winter two or three basketball games in a week.

Do I want to subscribe to Peacock and other streaming/subscription services just to watch the Hawks this year? The hassle of subscribing doesn't excite me as I don't watch much TV. I'm in a generation that does streaming via a Firestick or Roku. If it isn't easy to signup they will forget it.