Breaking Down Athlon's B1G Preview

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
I picked up the Athlon Big Ten Football Preview for about the 30th year in a row...or something like that.

Magazines seem to come out a few days earlier each year, and where June used to be preseason magazine month, I picked up my copy of Athlon on 5/27 this year and I think it was in stores on 5/25. Much of the content for these magazines is due to the publisher my the middle of April or thereabouts, so there are always some late breaking inaccuracies such as injuries, transfers, academic casualties, etc.

Still, this is one of the benchmark college football events for me...two months from now we'll be in Chicago for the Big Ten Kickoff Luncheon which really makes things serious.

Athlon pegs Iowa for an 8-4 season, 4-4 in the Big Ten Legends Division behind Nebraska and Michigan State. They pick Iowa to have the exact same records as Michigan.

They have Ohio State beating Nebraska in the first ever Big Ten Championship game and have nine of the 12 Big Ten teams finishing with a record of 6-6 or better, eight with at least seven wins. When I did my quick and dirty predictions for the Big Ten last month, I had 10 teams 6-6 or better. However, I had not done the math on head to head games and total W-L projections to see if that was even possible.

Athlon ranks units for the conference with a 1-12 rating, with 1 being the best. Here is how they rate Iowa's units:

QB: 10
RB: 5
WR/TE: 7
OL: 3
DL: 6
LB: 5
DB: 4

They rate Iowa's offensive line as one of the ten best in college football, but behind Ohio State and Wisconsin in the league. Michigan State is a team they project good things for, and they rated their OL 9th in the league.

Here is their national preseason ranking for each of Iowa's FBS opponents, having Iowa ranked at 26th:

Iowa State: 63
Pittsburgh: 41
LA: Monroe: 102
Penn State: 30
Northwetsern: 46
Michigan: 40
Michigan State: 22
Minnesota: 70
Indiana: 84
Purdue: 64
Nebraska: 10th

Athlon also has a college football fantasy football player ratings section, and Marcus Coker rated 10th among all running backs in college football and 20th overall for all players...interesting.

There is a lot more in the magazine and I feel it's always worth picking up...Phil Steele is my 'holy grail' for college preseason magazines, being the one magazine I would buy if I could only buy one. But picking up Athlon has become a decades old tradition for me and it never disappoints.
 
So Iowa's Wr's and TE's are 7th in the B1G? With McNutt being a top 3 WR how does this work?
 
So Iowa's Wr's and TE's are 7th in the B1G? With McNutt being a top 3 WR how does this work?

Basically means they think all we have is McNutt and team will bracket him until our other WR and TE force them out of it. I hope K Davis can step up and Herman and CJ Fed can get it done but the prediction isn't something we all have worried about a bit.....no proven #2, young QB, New TE.......
 
I get why they have JVB as the 10th rated QB, being that he hasn't had many snaps and is still an unknown...but with a solid offensive line, he's going to get time to throw. I think he will be a top 5 QB for sure, and may even surprise to the upside.

Somewhat surprised at the DL rating since we lost three to the NFL...figured it would be much lower.

I agree the combination of CJ and Herman is going to be very solid.

Honestly, I'm liking Iowa's team this year more and more. I know some things have to fall into place, but that's always the case for a team and it's the difference between 8-4 and 10-2...people like Brad Banks need to step up. It can happen and it's not that big of a stretch.
 
What I don't understand in Wisconsin's OL ahead of ours, They lose the top two guys on last years line both of whom going early in the draft. Now I understand they have shown an ability to reload at OL and have good lines year in and year out, but how are they ahead of us with a much more proven OL. We have a 1st round LT, one of the best C in the conference, a good reliable RT (who will also probably be drafted), and two good G's with tons of game experience. OSU might just have the best OL in the Big Ten but Wisconsin certainly doesn't have the second best.
 
What I don't understand in Wisconsin's OL ahead of ours, They lose the top two guys on last years line both of whom going early in the draft. Now I understand they have shown an ability to reload at OL and have good lines year in and year out, but how are they ahead of us with a much more proven OL. We have a 1st round LT, one of the best C in the conference, a good reliable RT (who will also probably be drafted), and two good G's with tons of game experience. OSU might just have the best OL in the Big Ten but Wisconsin certainly doesn't have the second best.

Both Carimi and Moffit were 5th year seniors. They aren't didn't leave early. They return Konz at C and Wagner will move over to left tackle. Moffit will assume his duties again at RT if his knee is healthy. We do know that we have one of the best OLs in the conference.
 
Lets look at the other B1G QBs for a moment.

PSU - McGloin/Bolden. McGloin is pedestrian, at best and Bolden couldnt beat him out, for the job. < JV
Nebraska - Martinez is a running QB. Not a very good passer. Cant stay healthy < JV
Michigan - Robinson= Martinez. <JV
MSU - Cousins > JV
ILL - Sheelhase > JV Has more playing time
PUR - Marve > JV Has more playing time
IND - ??? < JV
OSU - TP > JV
NW - Persa > JV
Wis - Budmeyer < JV
MINN - Marquis Gray < JV

That puts him about 6th.
 
Lets look at the other B1G QBs for a moment.

PSU - McGloin/Bolden. McGloin is pedestrian, at best and Bolden couldnt beat him out, for the job. < JV
Nebraska - Martinez is a running QB. Not a very good passer. Cant stay healthy < JV
Michigan - Robinson= Martinez. <JV
MSU - Cousins > JV
ILL - Sheelhase > JV Has more playing time
PUR - Marve > JV Has more playing time
IND - ??? < JV
OSU - TP > JV
NW - Persa > JV
Wis - Budmeyer < JV
MINN - Marquis Gray < JV

That puts him about 6th.

Robinson is better than JVB right now, and that is a fact. You can't tell me otherwise. I would also say that Martinez, while not the thrower that JVB is, has more in-game proven experience than him, and I would put him above as well. I'd say that 8th-9th is about right.
 
I do not buy Marve ahead of Vandy.
Robinson yes, Martinez no.

Zeus is getting no respect at right tackle. He will be one of the top 3 in the league. Adam Gettis is also going to be good if he stays healthy. Cannot understand how Steele has McMillan mentioned and not James and the other two o-linemen. They are far more proven.

McNutt,Davis and Herman/CJFed will be formidable...maybe they do not know it now,but they will later.

D-line is probably overrated. Lbs are underrated if they stay healthy.

I like being picked in the middle of the pack...chip on the shoulder. I see Iowa losing to PSU and Neb...thats it,and that will be enough to meet OSU in Indy.
 

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