Big Ten Returning Starters for 2012

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Returning starters is one of the first things I look for each off season as I begin to take a look at Iowa's upcoming schedule.

There isn't a guaranteed correlation between a team's upcoming success or lack there of related to returning starters, but more often than not it can prove to be a fairly reliable litmus test.

According to Phil Steele, Iowa returned the second fewest starters of any team in the FBS last year, a stat I cited several times throughout the season. The team was inconsistent throughout the season, which fits the profile of a team playing a lot of new faces.

The 2011 Wisconsin team overcame this stat, as they were 113 of 120 on Steele's list, but with one huge asterisk. Steele's numbers were published prior to Russell Wilson's transfer to the Badgers. Had that not happened, I am convinced Wisconsin would have been more in the line for 7 or 8 wins in 2011 compared to what they wound up being, which was the Big Ten champion.

In 2011, Michigan was #2 in the nation in returning starters and they made it back to a BCS Bowl game. Purdue was 13th in the nation and they were +3 in wins over their 2010 total. Penn State was 39th and they were +2 in wins. Nebraska was 109th and they were -1. Ohio State was 90th and won six games after being in the BCS the year before.

Not all returning starters are equal and having your starting quarterback coming back is typically a boost to the program.

Here is what Steele has put together for this year as it relates to the Big Ten, with the FBS rank represented by the number on the far left, out of 123 schools.

The columns from left to right: National rank for returning starters, the school, offensive starters returning, defensive starters returning, kicking specialists returning and the total number of starters returning. The asterisk by a school's offensive number indicates their quarterback is returning.

2012-Ret-Starters.jpg


You can see Steele's data for all FBS teams at this link

Indiana had a decent number of returning starters in 2011 yet it did not translate into a boost. This year, they return even more after playing so many young players in a coaching transition season. They also return QB Tre Roberson, who was a freshman last year and played well...at least he played well against Iowa. 17 position starters back? That's a very, very high number and look for Indiana to be +3 or more in wins this year over their one win from last year.

Ohio State is next on the list and should also be +2 or more in the win column despite being ineligible for a bowl game in 2011. They found a quarterback in Braxton Miller and he should improve a great deal playing in Urban Meyer's system.

Michigan ranks high in this compilation once again, but lower than they have in a few years. They have some defensive line losses that will challenge that side of the ball but they are in good hands with Greg Mattison as the DC. Denard Robinson is back for one more year on offense and Maize and Blue fans hope he will improve as a passer. They won 11 games last year, 10 in the regular season but I am not sure they will match that. I haven't taken a serious look at their schedule just yet.

Nebraska's biggest opportunity for growth resides on the defensive side of the ball, where they were a disappointment last season. At this point, I wouldn't pick them to win more than their nine from one year ago because of their one dimensional quarterback. Then again, Rex Burkhead is back for them at running back and he was a beast in 2011. Plus, their schedule is very favorable, so that factor may offset everything else. It's them and Michigan for the division title in my opinion and they host the Wolverines.


Purdue brings back the third highest total of returning position starters of any team in the league. They won six in the regular season last year and could do better than that this year.

Illinois is in the midst of a coaching change and that program is a huge question mark; the started last year 6-0 and finished 0-7. Nathan Scheelhaase is an exciting quarterback and the Illini have some good young RB's in the stable, but they struggled late on defense and lost more key players.

Michigan State is tied with Wisconsin for the fewest returning offensive starters as well as losing some huge (literally) players on the defensive side of the ball. Kirk Cousins is gone and replacing him will be a big challenge. The Spartans have won 11 games in each of the last two seasons, but I see them -3 or more this season in the win column.

Penn State is tied for the fewest returning position starters. Yes, they return two starting quarterbacks but neither is all that great. They won 9 last year and I don't see them getting there in 2012.

Wisconsin returns 10 starters, four on offense and lost the best football transfer in the history of NCAA football, arguably. As my friend Steve Deace likes to say, you can't hide your quarterback in college football and Wisconsin is going to have issues at this position. A running game is a quarterback's best friend and Wisconsin always has that, however they will not approach last year's win totals.

As for Iowa, they are in the lower 25% in the nation in returning starters for the second year in a row. They lost their leading rusher, their all time leading receiver and three of their best four defensive linemen with the fourth recovering from a late season ACL injury.

I think Iowa's 2011 win total of 7 games is in the range for what Iowa will accomplish in 2012.

What are your thoughts?
 
Last edited:
What I like to know about teams going into a new season more than just raw returning starter numbers is the depth on their OL/DL in terms of scholarship athletes. That typically seems to be a better gauge for how they will struggle or not.
 
I agree with Hogeye, the OL/DL depth and # returning starters on the OL/DL may provide more insight to a teams projected success.
 
This is a very difficult stat to track for 120 teams but I would really like to see the total number of games missed by players who opened the season as starters.

The NFL tracks these statistics and it often mirrors who does well (teams that don't have a lot of missed games by starters) and teams that do very poorly (teams that have several missed games by starters).

Maybe we could track it just for the B10. It would be interesting to see how those numbers fall.

Basically a lot comes down to simple luck. A RB gets tackled in a certain manner, an OL rolls over another OL's leg, a DL gets cut, wrong place at the wrong time stuff, etc and it changes the course of your season.
 
I think 7 is optimistic.

I will say one thing, this team will NOT be able to afford any hiccups against beatable teams. They are going to need every single win.
 
I think 7 is optimistic.

I will say one thing, this team will NOT be able to afford any hiccups against beatable teams. They are going to need every single win.

I don't think 7 is optimistic but I do think it's pretty much the ceiling, maybe 8 if the ball bounces our way. I still say we start out 5-0. NIU at a neutral, yet Iowa packed Soldier Field will be a win. Then ISU, UNI, Central Michigan and Minny at home. ISU replaces a lot too and remember, last year it took them 3 OTs to beat us on their field. Being a Kinnick will push Iowa into the win column. UNI won't have 6 months to prepare for us like they did in 2009 so no biggie there. Central Michigan is just another MACrificial lamb. And although a way underachieving Minny team has beat Iowa two years running both of those were up north. Kinnick will swing the win back our way as well.

After that, I'm not expecting much but I think they can squeeze out two more wins out of their remaining seven.
 
I think 7 is optimistic.

I will say one thing, this team will NOT be able to afford any hiccups against beatable teams. They are going to need every single win.

Agreed, 7 is optimistic and it's because of those hiccups.

Iowa could be 6-1 through Penn State (loss at Mich State), then finish 1-4, with the lone win either at NwU or against Purdue in Kinnick.

It will be the year they finally get back on track over Minny (in Kinnick) only to finally lose at Indiana (karmic payback). Michigan and Nebraska will be embarrassing finishes to the season.

Hoping for 8-4 / 4-4.
(W's = NIU, ISU, UNI, C-Mich, Minny, MSU or PSU, NwU or Indy, Purdue)
Expecting 6-6 / 2-6.
(W's = NIU, ISU, UNI, C-Mich, Minny, MSU / PSU / Purdue )
 
I don't think 7 is optimistic but I do think it's pretty much the ceiling, maybe 8 if the ball bounces our way. I still say we start out 5-0. NIU at a neutral, yet Iowa packed Soldier Field will be a win. Then ISU, UNI, Central Michigan and Minny at home. ISU replaces a lot too and remember, last year it took them 3 OTs to beat us on their field. Being a Kinnick will push Iowa into the win column. UNI won't have 6 months to prepare for us like they did in 2009 so no biggie there. Central Michigan is just another MACrificial lamb. And although a way underachieving Minny team has beat Iowa two years running both of those were up north. Kinnick will swing the win back our way as well.

After that, I'm not expecting much but I think they can squeeze out two more wins out of their remaining seven.

I'd love if we start 5-0 ... but I just don't see it happening with this young of a team. Chances are the ball won't bounce our way against NIU, ISU, Minny, or even UNI and we'll lose one of those games.
 
Iowa State is going to have a salty team and their style is going to be rough to stop for this group especially at that stage of season
 
I'm more optimistic than the previous commentators. I think the element of surprise will be a factor for the offense this season. The defensive prep work of Iowa's opponents will require them to study more and prepare in less time. Secondly I think the defense will be allowed to do some things to compensate for the lack of size and the inexperience. Late last season we saw more blitzes and I look for more run blitzes on typical running downs.
 
You can't hide your quarterback in college football. Who is ISU's quarterback again?
Steele Jantz got the starting QB job right before the start of the season last year and was benched midway through the season, but not before he had his breakout game against us where our defense made him look like a Heisman candidate. Jantz is still there...plus, they have a similar QB on the roster who was pretty good in a win over Okie St last year as a RS Frosh (?).

So it gives me little comfort that their QB situation might be a bit unsettled right now...
 
Iowa State is going to have a salty team and their style is going to be rough to stop for this group especially at that stage of season

What is salty? An attitude? A state of mind? I'm not sure. I do know this. They have question marks too, especially on DLine. More than likely were going to see an offensive game and I will take a very experienced QB at home going against two decent LBs over a coin flip QB on the road going against a young defense.
 
Iowa State is going to have a salty team and their style is going to be rough to stop for this group especially at that stage of season
You can't hide your quarterback in college football. Who is ISU's quarterback again?

Jared Barnett. He's only a RS Soph so he has a high ceiling, IMO. And he's mobile. Iowa sucks vs. mobile QB's.

I think it's going to be a long season, especially if we have any major injuries. Just not very optimistic about it, due to all of the inexperience we will have. I see 5 wins minimum, 7 maximum.
 
I don't think 7 is optimistic but I do think it's pretty much the ceiling, maybe 8 if the ball bounces our way. I still say we start out 5-0. NIU at a neutral, yet Iowa packed Soldier Field will be a win. Then ISU, UNI, Central Michigan and Minny at home. ISU replaces a lot too and remember, last year it took them 3 OTs to beat us on their field. Being a Kinnick will push Iowa into the win column. UNI won't have 6 months to prepare for us like they did in 2009 so no biggie there. Central Michigan is just another MACrificial lamb. And although a way underachieving Minny team has beat Iowa two years running both of those were up north. Kinnick will swing the win back our way as well.

After that, I'm not expecting much but I think they can squeeze out two more wins out of their remaining seven.

I don't understand your comment about UNI having 6 mos. to prepare last time. Could you explain this please? Thanks.
 
UNI had a loaded team that season and was the season opener. they sold out versus the run on certain formations and were able to really bottle up the run in that game. They also took advantage of of the te seam versus the cover 2 in that game as well. I still think they were top 4 on both sides of the lines we faced that season however.

Iowa was shorthanded on the oline in that game and I think Paki was the starting tailback in that game even though Robinson had the majority of the carries.
 
UNI had a loaded team that season and was the season opener. they sold out versus the run on certain formations and were able to really bottle up the run in that game. They also took advantage of of the te seam versus the cover 2 in that game as well. I still think they were top 4 on both sides of the lines we faced that season however.Iowa was shorthanded on the oline in that game and I think Paki was the starting tailback in that game even though Robinson had the majority of the carries.

paki played most of the 1st half and absolutely killed us. I remember watching the big 10 network after the game and they showed a highlight real of paki missing open running lanes. it was actually kind of comical watching them freeze a play and highlight a huge running lane, then play it again and watch paki cut the other way right into a defender
 
I don't understand your comment about UNI having 6 mos. to prepare last time. Could you explain this please? Thanks.

Farley said quite a few times that they were planning for the Iowa game as far back as spring practice. It's no different than Iowa prepping for a bowl game except UNI got six times as long.
 
the offenses will not be young or inexperienced
5TH YR QB in JVB. to not expect him to improve is foolish
possible 1st year starter in Garmon 6'2 200 lb 4* RB not like we have not started a freshmen before.
4th YR FB in Rodgers, solid blocker and can run and catch the ball
5th YR SR WR in Davis 4* who had 5o reception as a jr compared to McNutt who had 52 catches as a JR.
2nd WR KMM SO had 30 catches as a RS FR more than any FR receiver in years
4TH YR jr CJF a 4* finally stepped in as the starter at the end of the season
5th year Derby former walk-on and 3rd year So Hamilton 4* will battle for the #2 TE spot.
the skill position are solid and have talent, as for Davis i expect Soup can and will improve his play as a W-O. and i expect 5th year SR Staggs or RS FR Hillyer to step up for the 3rd WR spot
the OL will be anchored by 5th year senior center Ferentz backed up by 4th year jr Boffelli.
the other 4 spots will have MacMillan, Scherff, Donnall, Tobin, VanSloten,Blythe and Walsh as the top 7 to compete for 4 spots.
the offense will be solid and hopefully with the new OC Davis i expect the offense to carry the D until they get the kinks worked out.
the back 7 on Defense look to be solid in cluding the 2 deeps, it just a matter of time for the front 4 to get settled in. this team will surprise alot of people in the fall
 

Latest posts

Top