The list of bowl games are not in any particular order are they? Illinois has looked good at times this year but that bowl prediction by Andrea Adelson makes it look like Iowa loses out the rest of the year and Penn State, NW and Illinois win the rest of the remaining schedule!?!
Andrea obviously thinks Ohio State will beat Iowa, which isn't unreasonable, and thinks the Big Ten will get 1 bid, which isn't unreasonable either. However I still think Iowa's shot at the BCS is pretty good, especially since, as Jon has wisely said, MSU's chances at Penn State look a lot worse now. At least the Hawkeyes can still share the title by winning out, it was tough missing out on the title last year.
If IA, MSU and UW all win out, MSU definitively goes to the Rose. But can another BCS bowl pick IA over UW, or does the conference preclude this? (Not that it would happen, but could it? B/c that's basically what happened a couple yrs ago when a FL bowl picked IA over NW, that in principle was the same situation.)
Murph said on "Sound Off" tonight that basically the Big 10 gets two BCS bowls. If Iowa wins out they will get one of them. I don't know how well Keith and Andy do their homework on bowls, but I am sure they have researched it more than I have.
If Iowa wins out we need a Wisconsin loss to go to the Rose Bowl or a MSU loss to go to a BCS game(we won't go to BCS over a 11-1 Wisconsin who beat us and if MSU wins out they go to the Rose). But even that doesn't guarantee us a BCS birth. Keith just saying that's it's probable that if they win out they should bo to BCS.
main thing to focus on is that if Iowa wins out, Hawks will do no worse than be co-champs with Wisconsin, MSU, or both. Although MSU winning at Penn State is not a sure thing, neither is Wisconsin winning at Michigan.