Best Guesses for Conference Expansion

BSpringsteen

Well-Known Member
Pac 16: Add Texas, Okie, Okie St and Texas Tech

SEC: Add aTm, Florida St. Miami, Clemson

Big Ten: Add Mizzou, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Maryland

ACC: UNC, Duke, Wake, NC State, UVA, VaTech, Rutgers, Pitt, UConn, Boston College, WVU, GA Tech, Louisville, USF, Cincinnati Memphis (respectable in FB, MONSTER in bball)

Mountain 16: TCU, Baylor, Boise State, Houston, SMU, Colorado State, Wyoming, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Air Force, BYU, Tulsa, Nevada, Fresno State, UNLV
 
Pac 16: Add Texas, Okie, Okie St and Texas Tech

SEC: Add aTm, Florida St. Miami, Clemson

Big Ten: Add Mizzou, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Maryland

ACC: UNC, Duke, Wake, NC State, UVA, VaTech, Rutgers, Pitt, UConn, Boston College, WVU, GA Tech, Louisville, USF, Cincinnati Memphis (respectable in FB, MONSTER in bball)

Mountain 16: TCU, Baylor, Boise State, Houston, SMU, Colorado State, Wyoming, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Air Force, BYU, Tulsa, Nevada, Fresno State, UNLV

Looks good to me

But 5 probably does not work for a 4 team playoff of conference champions which I think is the ultimate goal.
 
Pac 16: Add Texas, Okie, Okie St and Texas Tech

SEC: Add aTm, Florida St. Miami, Clemson

Big Ten: Add Mizzou, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Maryland

ACC: UNC, Duke, Wake, NC State, UVA, VaTech, Rutgers, Pitt, UConn, Boston College, WVU, GA Tech, Louisville, USF, Cincinnati Memphis (respectable in FB, MONSTER in bball)

Mountain 16: TCU, Baylor, Boise State, Houston, SMU, Colorado State, Wyoming, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Air Force, BYU, Tulsa, Nevada, Fresno State, UNLV

Syracuse doesn't end up in the Big Ten. They aren't an AAU member university. Swap them for either Pitt or Rutgers (on a side note wouldn't it be interesting to see C. Vivian Stringer coaching in the Big Ten again). For that matter I could potentially see no Notre Dame in the Big Ten and both Pitt and Rutgers getting invites.

I could also see the Big Ten possibly looking a bit south and considering Duke and/or North Carolina (they would probably have to be a package deal). Yeah, I know...they bring nothing in the way of football, but they bring great basketball and Duke in particular brings some big time research dollars to the table.

And although Kansas isn't much in football they have such a rich basketball tradition that it's difficult to imagine them in a lesser conference. They are also an AAU university, so from an academic standpoint they are an attractive school.
 
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The big ten is not going to 16...so lets just stop with this super conference ****. ND is the only team out of those four that add any value to the conference. Find me 3 more that actually don't diminish the value of the Big Ten brand and then we can actually have this discussion.
 
The big ten is not going to 16...so lets just stop with this super conference ****. ND is the only team out of those four that add any value to the conference. Find me 3 more that actually don't diminish the value of the Big Ten brand and then we can actually have this discussion.

I guess I'm not sold on Nebraska. What did they add?
 
The big ten is not going to 16...so lets just stop with this super conference ****. ND is the only team out of those four that add any value to the conference. Find me 3 more that actually don't diminish the value of the Big Ten brand and then we can actually have this discussion.

Bingo! Everybody throws out these names without answering the $30 million question. The Big Ten schools aren't going to add Maryland, Missouri or Syracuse to take a pay cut.

It is anticipated that every Big Ten member, except for Nebraska, will receive well over $25 million in revenue sharing funds this academic year. By adding Nebraska, it is estimated that the Big Ten increased the revenue sharing pool by over $30 million a year.

First, Fox Sports is paying the Big Ten $24 million a year for the championship football game. With the payout from the championship game, the addition of the 12th team was relatively easy. Further expansion will be more difficult. There are very few schools that would add an instant $24 million a year to the Big Ten coffers.

The Big Ten is the most interesting conference to look at when it comes to ticket revenue, because it is the only conference that still engages in revenue sharing when it comes to gate receipts. Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State do not get the full benefit of having three of the largest football stadiums in college football.

The Big Ten shares gate receipts from both football and men’s basketball. For football, schools contribute 35% of the gate receipts for all home games against conference opponents. The minimum contribution per game is $300,000 and the maximum is $1 million, making the maximum for the season $4 million. The pool is divided equally between all schools.

One important thing to note is that the gate receipt total from which the 35% is taken does not include premiums paid for suites, club seats or the like. For example, if a school requires a minimum donation in order to qualify for season tickets or a suite, that donation amount is not included, only the face value on the tickets. Similarly, if the cost of a suite is $10,000, but the face value on the ticket is only $4,000, it is the latter amount that is used for revenue sharing purposes.


Here’s what each team in the Big Ten school contributed for the 2009 football season:

Penn State Univ. $4,000,000.00
Univ. of Michigan $4,000,000.00
Ohio State Univ. $4,000,000.00
Univ. of Iowa $3,700,000.00
Univ. of Wisconsin $3,600,000.00
Michigan State Univ. $3,600,000.00
Univ. of Illinois $2,400,000.00
Purdue Univ. $2,200,000.00
Univ. of Minnesota $2,100,000.00
Indiana Univ. $1,600,000.00
Northwestern Univ. $1,200,000.00

As a result, some schools are recipients under the revenue sharing program and others are payors. The distribution for football after the 2009 season was $2.95 million per school, meaning Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana and Northwestern were net recipients. It is important to note that Indiana's football team was subsidized to the tune of $1.35 million & Northwestern received $1.75 million in subsidizes.

Nebraska will contribute between $3.8 to $4 million to the pool this year. Any additional schools will have to be payors to the revenue sharing program & not recipients. This is what immediately eliminates Maryland & Syracuse.

Last year, Maryland's & Syracuse's average football attendance was lower than Indiana's. Indiana average 41,953 fans a game. In contrast, Syracuse averaged 40,064 & Maryland 39,168. As a result, both schools would be large recipients in the revenue sharing program. Adding, Missouri would be a wash provided the Tigers sold out its 61,000 seat capacity stadium.

Plus, with the addition of 12 (8 conference) football games, 25 plus (18 conference) basketball games & one Big Ten tounament game for television, Nebraska will generate at least another $2 million a year to the Big Ten treasury.

Show me the $30 million!

Note, I didn't include basketball ticket revenue sharing in the discussion because it is miniscule compared to football. Even the biggest payors into the program only lose about $80,000.
 
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Texas I dependent
Ou,okie st , ttu to PAC
Mizzou to sec
Baylor up $hit creek
Ksu in the same canoe with Baylor
Ku big east
Iowa state same as Baylor but no paddle
 
What schools have the necessary stadium size and population centers to attract the Big 10? Does Rutgers really attract the New York area? I would imagine there is a huge college football crowd in the New York area but do they follow Rutgers and if not, who do they follow? What about Virginia? The problem with Pitt is that Penn State already owns most of the state so why would Pitt be attractive and would Penn State go along with Pitt?

If expansion happens, getting Duke and NC would immediately get the entire state of NC plus all the viewing sets around the country. But would the Big 10 make enough money adding two teams from the same state? Both are bb powers (UNC has had some pretty good football teams) and if bb funding is miniscule compared to football, would Duke not be a recipient immediately? NC perhaps a push?

If it is about capturing markets, other than Notre Dame and Texas, what other schools truly fit the bill? I just see how Rutgers fits that bill? How many seats does their stadium sell--that would be a good indicator of interest.
 
Big East - Adds ISU, KSU, Baylor or Tech (Separates football schools from basketball only.)
ACC - Stays at 12
SEC - Adds A&M and Missouri
PAC - Adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Texas
Big 12 - Baylor or Tech to Mountain West
Big 10 - Stays at 12
Independents - Notre Dame

Too many unknown factors to say how things will shake out. If the SEC or PAC would only expand by two teams that changes the dynamics. If one or the other expands by four and the other by two that changes the dynamics. If there is a surprise conference expansion (Big Ten) that changes the dynamics. My guess is predicated on the SEC expanding by two, PAC by four, and Big East by three.

The PAC adding Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma State looks very attractive if you are an existing PAC member. You could go to four pods and rotate one pod of four off and on the schedule every two years.

Texas, ASU, AZ, Utah
Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Colorado
USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford
Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State

But then again .........
 
Last year, Pitt averaged 52,165 fans a game. This is a little over 2,000 less a game than Illinois. So Pitt would be a recipient of about a half-million a year. The capacity of Heinz Field is 65,050. Plus, Pitt would not add to the Big Ten's TV foot print. With Penn State, the Big Ten already dominates the TV market in Pennsylvania. Eliminate Pitt from the discussion.

Rutgers is intriguing because it puts the Big Ten within forty-five miles of downtown Manhatten & in the largest TV market in the world. The capacity of Rutgers High Point Stadium is 52,454. However, all those TV sets make it a fascinating possibility.

North Carolina also is interesting. Last year, the Tar Heels averaged about three thousand fewer fans than Missouri. So, the financial drain of the football program would not be that great. Plus, it would add one of the five or so most recognized basketball programs in country to the conference. Probably a better choice than Missouri.

Forget Duke. Last year Duke averaged almost 8,000 fewer fans a game than Northwestern. So the football program puts Duke in the same hole as Northwestern.

As Jerry Maguire said: "Show me the money!"
 
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It's been mentioned numerous times and I'll point it out again, expansion IF it were to happen would be only partially driven by athletic considerations (and a minority consideration at that). Football brings in $100s of millions to the Big Ten. But while fans watch the athletic left hand, the academic right hand of the Big Ten (The Committee on Institutional Cooperation) engages in $6 billion of funded research annually. There's the real driver right there. Find a school that brings some degree of athletic respectability and (more importantly) the ability to draw in significant research dollars and you've found a potential candidate.

For the record, I don't think the Big Ten expands unless its hand is forced by a sudden land grab of all the other conferences. Should other conferences start making big moves I don't think the Big Ten just sits by and watches.
 
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