Best Case Scenario for Lick

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EckoHawk

Well-Known Member
What is the best case (realistic) scenario for Iowa Basketball and Lickliter in the next 15-16 months?

Serious question folks. If he does get to coach next year, what is the best possible record?

Reason I ask is this....seems to be a consensus that he gets another year at least from some folks on this board.

But if he goes 15-15 or 17-13 next year (my best case scenario) .... is he going to get another year.....

I think it boils down to this....

If his best case (realistic) scenario next year is 17-13 (7-11 in conference), then why even give him another year? Wouldn't he be fired anyway? Why don't we admit we made a mistake and move on at the end of this year?

I guess I have heard no sound reasoning to keep him around another year.

Just one man's opinion.
 
Best case scenario: Lick realizes he is in over his head and leaves at end of season. #2 Barta does his homework this time before hiring a new coach. #3 New coach brings assistants who can recruit.
 
I think it depends on what kind of contributions we see from next year's freshman class. If they get 17 wins with contributions from the freshman, then I think Lick will get another year.

What if 2 of the 4 average 12 and 14 points a game, and the other two are somewhere in the 6-8 points a game? Is the future bright enough to keep Lick in that scenario?
 
Best case scenario is no current players transfer and all recruits make it in next year, plus we find a way to add another point guard (which means a current player would not be back, so I am contradicting myself already). In 2010-11 the Hawks play .500 or slightly better. To do this he needs to not lose this year's team, so improvement and a few wins during the next two months are critical.
 
knighthawk13 said:
I think it depends on what kind of contributions we see from next year's freshman class. If they get 17 wins with contributions from the freshman, then I think Lick will get another year.

What if 2 of the 4 average 12 and 14 points a game, and the other two are somewhere in the 6-8 points a game? Is the future bright enough to keep Lick in that scenario?
Click to expand...

Problem is - can you tell if the freshman class is that good or that the incumbent core is just that bad and thus gives them the opportunity most freshmen wouldn't have.

WE NEED TO CUT THE CORD WITH THIS COACH
 
"Problem is - can you tell if the freshman class is that good or that the incumbent core is just that bad and thus gives them the opportunity most freshmen wouldn't have."

Yes, I think you can tell. Regardless, I don't think Barta is going to fire Lick, so I'm trying to be positive.
 
Best case for Lick...
1. Iowa wins 3 incl 1 fairly significant upset in B10 play yet this year
2. Two insignicant players transfer (read: Tucker & Brommer) so...
3. Lick picks up two quality JUCOs (PG, Big)
4. They win 7-8 B10 games and around .500 next year
5. He gets two quality HS recruits for 2011 which means another also ran leaves
6. NCAA the following year

If something similar to this doesn't occur, he be gone!
 
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If we win 15-18 games next year there will be no serious thoughts by anyone close to the program to have him leave. The year following we need to be an NCAA tournament team.

The ONLY thing to get him fired this year would be a player revolt in the form of rebellion, transfers by either Culley, Gatens, May, or Cougs, or having more than one of next years recruiting class fall through for reasons other than academics/clearinghouse issues.
 
best case is nobody transfers out and they go .500, IMO, and that might be enough

fail either of those an adios
 
MinnHawk01 said:
Best case for Lick...
1. Iowa wins 3 incl 1 fairly significant upset in B10 play yet this year
2. Two insignicant players transfer (read: Tucker & Brommer) so...
3. Lick picks up two quality JUCOs (PG, Big)
4. They win 7-8 B10 games and around .500 next year
5. He gets two quality HS recruits for 2011 which means another also ran leaves
6. NCAA the following year

If something similar to this doesn't occur, he be gone!
Click to expand...

This is what I think. Getting close to .500 in Big Ten play and getting into the 16-18 win territory is what we should expect next year. It would be enough of an improvement to make me think that Lickliter deserves more time. Anything like years 1-3 though, and I think a change should be made. 15 wins won't be enough if it was like year 2, where we were under .500 overall and only 5-13 in conference.

What is REALISTIC for next year? That is tougher to answer. But if we don't lose any more players from this year's team, and next year's class is all it's hyped up to be, then I don't see any reason why we couldn't be at least be competetive enough to satisfy the 7-8 B10 wins and finish over .500 overall.
 
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Its impossible to say whats realistic for next year without knowing how much of an impact the incoming recruits can make.
 
busabus114 said:
Its impossible to say whats realistic for next year without knowing how much of an impact the incoming recruits can make.
Click to expand...

I agree with this assessment. We don't know how good the incoming recruits are, so it's really hard to say how the team will be next year. We also can't predict injuries either so it's really hard to nail down a W-L prediction at this point.

I would say by this time next year, we will have a pretty good idea about the program and the freshman class.
 
best case scenario for lick - the university buys the remainder of his contract out and scratches him a check for a few million. he takes a year or so off, relaxes, makes sure is health is in order, and gets another job at a mid major where his "system" can work.

best case scenario for the University - lick is fired at the end of the year, another mid major coach is hired and slowly builds the program back up. by 2013-14 Iowa basketball is relevant again and the fans buy back in and start showing up.

The worst case scenarios are not nearly as pretty...
 
We have to know who we could possibly replace him Lick with, to assess whether or not him leaving would be good. Seeing that we had a hard time getting a coach three years ago and we now have less talented players and less fan support I don't think we can realistically get a coach that would make a huge difference (unless we took a gamble with a lesser known coach). I know, I know that can't be because we're Iowa and in the Big Ten but that is just my opinion.

The best case scenario for Lick is that the four recruits pan out next year and Devon Archie develops and becomes a good big man. Cully Payne makes huge strides (have to admit he does have work ethic) and it would be nice if the rest of the team learned how to dribble (preferably with both hands). This would give Lick a 4th year and possibly he shocks us with all of his own players and we are competitive. If not we fire him but we have a more athletic team, full roster, all players have experience, new facilities, and potentially better fan support if we are more competitive. At that point I think we could get a better coach and everyone would think we gave Lick more than a fair chance.
 
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