Looked up Baylor, most likely its because they fell apart during conference play. Started 2-8, losing four in a row at one point. Only two wins against the top half of the Big12 (ISU, KSU) with a couple a quality wins against OSU.
If they finish with a win against KSU, that will leave them at .500 in conference with 6-7 quality wins all year, that alone will get them in the tourney, anything in the conference tourney is gravy.
Here's how they compare:
Baylor
Overall record: 18-10 (have 2 wins vs. non Division 1 teams
2-8 vs. Top 25 RPI
8-9 vs. RPI Top 100
Worst loss: Texas Tech - RPI 118
Road/neutral site record: 4-5
Iowa
Overall record: 19-9) 1 win vs. non Division I team
1-6 vs. RPI Top 25
7-9 vs. Top 100
Worst loss: @ Indiana - RPI 78
Road/neutral site record - 7-6
Note: Iowa also has 5 wins against teams between 100 and 120 in RPI (Notre Dame, Northwestern twice, Penn State, Purdue). Notre Dame losing its best play after Iowa played them hurt, and ND would most certainly have stayed in the Top 100 RPI.
Okie State
Overall: 20-10
2-5 vs. Top 25 RPI
8-9 vs. Top 100
Worst Loss: Texas Tech - 118
Road/neutral record: 5-7
Overall, similar resumes. Points in Iowa's favor:
Okie State's best road win was at WVU (87 in RPI). Iowa has road wins over OSU (26) and Illinois (71). Man, a win over Iowa State on the road would look good here. Baylor's best road win is over Okie State (39 in RPI).
Iowa's worst loss (@Indiana) is much "better" than the losses to Texas Tech that Okie State and Baylor have. Iowa's road/neutral record is also much better.
The other computer rankings also like Iowa more than the other two. Iowa is between 12 and 14 in Sagarin, Pomeroy and ESPN BPI. Computers also like Okie State in the 20-25 range, with Baylor in the 36-45 range.
I would not want a first-round match with Baylor (like a 7-10 game). Important for Iowa to win at least 1 this week and make a bit of noise in the BTT to keep things at a 6 seed or better.