Basketball Season Predictions



Except that we have 13 Non-Conference games, not 11 so that makes it easier to get to the 20 win plateau. I see us at 11-2 non con and 9-9 in the B1G. 1 win in the B1G tournament and we will be in.
 


My brains hurt trying to predict this team. Then, looking at last year's team, just makes my brains hurt more. I know a lot of people cut Francis a lot of slack, but his teams are unpredictable and inconsistent, and I don't see anything that will indicate that this year will be any different. One game we win at Purdue, the next we lose at home to Nebraska? We lose at Penn State and Northwestern back to back, then come home and knock off Wisconsin and Indiana?

If there is one thing I can predict with certainty, is that this team is going to lose multiple games they have no business losing.
 


GhostofBTT said:
My brains hurt trying to predict this team. Then, looking at last year's team, just makes my brains hurt more. I know a lot of people cut Francis a lot of slack, but his teams are unpredictable and inconsistent, and I don't see anything that will indicate that this year will be any different. One game we win at Purdue, the next we lose at home to Nebraska? We lose at Penn State and Northwestern back to back, then come home and knock off Wisconsin and Indiana?

If there is one thing I can predict with certainty, is that this team is going to lose multiple games they have no business losing.
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I agree with you, however, I don't think it has anything to do with Fran and everything to do with youth. What happened last year is a perfect example of a young team. They win games they shouldn't and lose games they shouldn't.....they only thing consistent about young teams is their inconsistency. I fully expect that inconsistency to level out this year as the players that should get the majority of the minutes (Marble, McCabe, Basabe, White, Oglesby) are pretty seasoned players at this point. Yes, MG and AW are freshman and will certainly show a good level of inconsistency, but I think that the fact that the other players getting the majority of the minutes have been through this multiple times will help those two out.

The good thing is that at least we can talk about post-season possibilities now.
 


SpiderRico said:
I agree with you, however, I don't think it has anything to do with Fran and everything to do with youth.
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Well, if we go with an 12 man rotation this year, 8 of those players will be underclassmen, so I don't see how the youth problem is going to work itself out, especially when only one of the upperclassmen is a reliable player.
 


BSpringsteen said:
It's gonna be really difficult to top this rebuttal.

Because in my mind, out of 100,000 simulations, the Cubs win every time.
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Exactly. The Cubs always have a chance. :) By the way, what were the odds of the Orioles even making the playoffs this past year?
 




It is far too early for me to drop my basketball prediction bomb on you people. There will be about 20teen basketball record prediction threads pop up in the next 2 months.
I'll bide my time................
 




GhostofBTT said:
Well, if we go with an 12 man rotation this year, 8 of those players will be underclassmen, so I don't see how the youth problem is going to work itself out, especially when only one of the upperclassmen is a reliable player.
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When I said "young", I was talking in terms of experience level.
 


SpiderRico said:
12 wins? No way. There has never been a B1G team with 10 conference wins that failed to make the NCAAs. If the Hawks finish 10-8, no way do they miss out.
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If Iowa sweeps Neb, NW and Nebraska and Purdue and beats Illinois at home and say Minnesota at home, and loses the rest, that's 10-8. With the non-conf RPI they will have (low) that wouldn't be enough IMO.
 


JonDMiller said:
If Iowa sweeps Neb, NW and Nebraska and Purdue and beats Illinois at home and say Minnesota at home, and loses the rest, that's 10-8. With the non-conf RPI they will have (low) that wouldn't be enough IMO.
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I think that given Fran's reputation of beating teams that, on paper anyway, are more talented than his....we'll beat a team or two in the top 10.

But even if we don't, I find it hard to believe that a team that finishes 10-8 in the toughest conference in America won't get an invite. Not saying it can't happen or that you're wrong, but even in your scenario above, barring a complete beat down in the 1st game of the B1G tourney, I don't see how we wouldn't make it.
 


SpiderRico said:
When I said "young", I was talking in terms of experience level.
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Yeah, I know. Underclassmen have less experience. That's the point. How did Iowa win those big games against Wisconsin and Indiana late in the year? A great senior took over games and willed the team to victory. Will Marble do that this year, when we are in tough games late? Maybe, but I have not seen much to show me that it is likely.
 


GhostofBTT said:
Yeah, I know. Underclassmen have less experience. That's the point. How did Iowa win those big games against Wisconsin and Indiana late in the year? A great senior took over games and willed the team to victory. Will Marble do that this year, when we are in tough games late? Maybe, but I have not seen much to show me that it is likely.
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But if the overall talent level and experience level is better, then maybe it doesn't have to come to a guy going nuts from 3pt land to win those?
 


clicheusername3 said:
As much as the kool-aid is making everyone believes Gesell and Woodbury are Freshman at Kentucky this year, they are actually Freshman at Iowa, and are not going to be coming out of the gates on pre-season All-American lists. They are nice pieces, but its not going to be realistic to go to the NCAA tourney until 2014.

I think it's more likely to see a standstill season or possibly a slight regression this season. I'm not sure where the points are going to come from consistently except for Marble. If Fran wants May to be his defensive stopper, then that means he has to take up a space on the offensive end as well, which is crippling.

Woodbury is going to be in so much foul trouble for the first half of the season he's not going to be able to get that many minutes to make a huge impact. He will definitely improve throughout the year, however.

If Gesell runs the point its going to be a steep learning curve, he'll hit shots, but he will have a hard time setting others up when he's being hounded by more athletic defenders. On defense, get ready for the matador for at least the first half of the season.
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It is funny about FR expectations.....can we expect one of them or both of them to have the same impact as Basabe as a FR, or maybe White as a FR (neither big time recruits). It seems Fran has a track record of bringing in kids that end up contributing right away. My guess is Gesell will contribute in a big way as Basabe and White did. Will he have ups and downs like every FR? Sure he will, but he will be a solid contributor this year.

Do we make the tourney or not next year? If I had to put money on it, I would say no. At the same time, I'm not going to be shocked if this team is on the bubble at the end of the season.
 


GhostofBTT said:
Yeah, I know. Underclassmen have less experience. That's the point. How did Iowa win those big games against Wisconsin and Indiana late in the year? A great senior took over games and willed the team to victory. Will Marble do that this year, when we are in tough games late? Maybe, but I have not seen much to show me that it is likely.
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They don't win at Wisconsin without Marble.
 


GhostofBTT said:
Yes, lots of them, including Iowa on several occasions.
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Damn Ghost, you are really terrible at trying to argue against the Hawks having at least a shot at the NCAA tournament. First you claim Iowa needs to win at least 13 conference games to get in the tourney LOL, now you're just making **** up. Think you need to take a break from the basketball forum for a while.
 


clicheusername3 said:
As much as the kool-aid is making everyone believes Gesell and Woodbury are Freshman at Kentucky this year, they are actually Freshman at Iowa, and are not going to be coming out of the gates on pre-season All-American lists. They are nice pieces, but its not going to be realistic to go to the NCAA tourney until 2014.

I think it's more likely to see a standstill season or possibly a slight regression this season. I'm not sure where the points are going to come from consistently except for Marble. If Fran wants May to be his defensive stopper, then that means he has to take up a space on the offensive end as well, which is crippling.

Woodbury is going to be in so much foul trouble for the first half of the season he's not going to be able to get that many minutes to make a huge impact. He will definitely improve throughout the year, however.

If Gesell runs the point its going to be a steep learning curve, he'll hit shots, but he will have a hard time setting others up when he's being hounded by more athletic defenders. On defense, get ready for the matador for at least the first half of the season.
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Aaron White. If we get consistent scoring from Marble I think we'll be in great shape. Not many B10 teams have two guys who can score consistently and I have no doubt White will be able to next year.
 




hawkfan33 said:
Damn Ghost, you are really terrible at trying to argue against the Hawks having at least a shot at the NCAA tournament. First you claim Iowa needs to win at least 13 conference games to get in the tourney LOL, now you're just making **** up. Think you need to take a break from the basketball forum for a while.
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Damn 33, you must have missed where I acknowledged that I was incorrect, thinking the number was 10, not 9, and thanked someone for correcting me.

That being said, Iowa does not win 9 games in conference this year.
 


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