With the opening kick-off now less than 82 days away, and a bunch of overpriced magazines hitting the shelves (Athlon's is out, Lindy's is hitting this week), I'm curious what folks think of the B1G West. I know the temptation would be to start by placing Illinois 7th. But even if you do, trying to pick the other six is going to be a real test. Every team has things working both for and against them. Okay, here's my first guess:
(B1G's worst teams in 2019 - Rutgers, Maryland; B1G's most improved - Indiana, Minnesota; B1G champion - Michigan)
7. Northwestern 2-7, 4-8 I know, they won the West last year. But with few meaningful starters returning, and a killer schedule taking away their momentum quickly, I see them returning to Mildcat status at least for this year. Patty Fitz's teams after big years are far less so - but they don't stay that way for long. They probably even lose at home to ... Iowa;
T5. Illinois 3-6, 6-6 (bowl) I know, what's this guy been smokin'?? But EVERYONE who was anyone in last year's starting line-up is back. This team, that lost 63-0 to Iowa also fell just short in the B1G finale last year at champion Northwestern. They still don't quite meet expectations, largely because of their schedule. But I will say this - the Hawkeyes can be grateful for the schedule quirk that has the Illini returning to Kinnick for the second year in a row. If the game was in Champaign, it would be an 'L';
T5. Wisconsin 3-6, 6-6 (bowl) By now, half of you probably quit reading. But something isn't right at Wisconsin, and suddenly they don't have typical up-and-coming Wisconsinites to fill their losses. This does not look like a year they can live either on their defense or running game. The only saving grace is no September road game - in fact, they don't have their first B1G road game until 10/19 - crazy. It won't help, as they even lose at home to ... Iowa - and other teams as well;
4. Purdue 4-5, 7-5 (bowl) When you have nine starters returning on defense, and Rondale Moore (if only him) returning on offense, you should be better than this. And of the B1G coaching hires of the last few years, nobody - not Fleck, not Harbaugh, etc. has had more success than Jeff Brohm. And this guy, so far, owns Iowa. So why this? An Auburn mega-slaughter in their bowl last year painted the way. And this year, teams can focus on Moore a lot more (pun intended), and they will struggle to stop top passing games. A good season for them, not a great one, especially since they lose to Iowa;
3. Nebraska 6-3, 8-4 (bowl) Am I one of the bozos drinking the Scott Frost kool-aid? No. And if they had Northwestern's schedule, I don't think they'd fare as well as the Mildcats. But their schedule is almost custom-made for a jump up in the standings this year. In fact, if it weren't for a stumping season-ending loss in Lincoln to ... Iowa, who knows what kind of year they can have;
2. Iowa 7-2, 10-2 (major bowl) Has anyone (outside of this thread) even noticed what is building in Iowa City? When you have two potential all-American tackles, THE best defensive lineman in the country, and a school that is as rapidly becoming "DEFENSIVE BACK U" as much as TIGHT END U, you have the makings of a team that may FINALLY have a record to match their NFL-bound talent. Their schedule may indeed just be a tad too murderous to expect more than this. But still, a bowl win like Mississippi State usually transcends into something special the next season;
1. Minnesota 8-1, 10-2 (major bowl) OK, I admit, I can't believe I myself am writing this. And it could well be that this team, like other good Minnesota teams through the last four decades, just can't get out of their own way, losing games they have no business losing, even as they show themselves to be potentially the class of the conference. But the signs are there. The only toughie from the east they play is Penn State, and they get them at home (and I don't see Penn State being very good this year). And I think the light comes on for the Fleck system this year. Yes, THE key west game may be November 16th in Iowa City.
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(B1G's worst teams in 2019 - Rutgers, Maryland; B1G's most improved - Indiana, Minnesota; B1G champion - Michigan)
7. Northwestern 2-7, 4-8 I know, they won the West last year. But with few meaningful starters returning, and a killer schedule taking away their momentum quickly, I see them returning to Mildcat status at least for this year. Patty Fitz's teams after big years are far less so - but they don't stay that way for long. They probably even lose at home to ... Iowa;
T5. Illinois 3-6, 6-6 (bowl) I know, what's this guy been smokin'?? But EVERYONE who was anyone in last year's starting line-up is back. This team, that lost 63-0 to Iowa also fell just short in the B1G finale last year at champion Northwestern. They still don't quite meet expectations, largely because of their schedule. But I will say this - the Hawkeyes can be grateful for the schedule quirk that has the Illini returning to Kinnick for the second year in a row. If the game was in Champaign, it would be an 'L';
T5. Wisconsin 3-6, 6-6 (bowl) By now, half of you probably quit reading. But something isn't right at Wisconsin, and suddenly they don't have typical up-and-coming Wisconsinites to fill their losses. This does not look like a year they can live either on their defense or running game. The only saving grace is no September road game - in fact, they don't have their first B1G road game until 10/19 - crazy. It won't help, as they even lose at home to ... Iowa - and other teams as well;
4. Purdue 4-5, 7-5 (bowl) When you have nine starters returning on defense, and Rondale Moore (if only him) returning on offense, you should be better than this. And of the B1G coaching hires of the last few years, nobody - not Fleck, not Harbaugh, etc. has had more success than Jeff Brohm. And this guy, so far, owns Iowa. So why this? An Auburn mega-slaughter in their bowl last year painted the way. And this year, teams can focus on Moore a lot more (pun intended), and they will struggle to stop top passing games. A good season for them, not a great one, especially since they lose to Iowa;
3. Nebraska 6-3, 8-4 (bowl) Am I one of the bozos drinking the Scott Frost kool-aid? No. And if they had Northwestern's schedule, I don't think they'd fare as well as the Mildcats. But their schedule is almost custom-made for a jump up in the standings this year. In fact, if it weren't for a stumping season-ending loss in Lincoln to ... Iowa, who knows what kind of year they can have;
2. Iowa 7-2, 10-2 (major bowl) Has anyone (outside of this thread) even noticed what is building in Iowa City? When you have two potential all-American tackles, THE best defensive lineman in the country, and a school that is as rapidly becoming "DEFENSIVE BACK U" as much as TIGHT END U, you have the makings of a team that may FINALLY have a record to match their NFL-bound talent. Their schedule may indeed just be a tad too murderous to expect more than this. But still, a bowl win like Mississippi State usually transcends into something special the next season;
1. Minnesota 8-1, 10-2 (major bowl) OK, I admit, I can't believe I myself am writing this. And it could well be that this team, like other good Minnesota teams through the last four decades, just can't get out of their own way, losing games they have no business losing, even as they show themselves to be potentially the class of the conference. But the signs are there. The only toughie from the east they play is Penn State, and they get them at home (and I don't see Penn State being very good this year). And I think the light comes on for the Fleck system this year. Yes, THE key west game may be November 16th in Iowa City.
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