JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Believe it or not, I didn't have any preset notion as to how my 2011 Big Ten predictions were going to play out...specifically, that is.
As I type this, I don't have records in mind for any Big Ten team, though I did make some spitball record projections back in May. I have not hidden my opinion with Wisconsin is the best team in the Big Ten, nor have I hidden my Legends pick of Nebraska. Those picks were made at the macro level, and in the case of Nebraska I have not gone through every game to see how they hold up.
Now, I want to make a weekly game by game prediction for each team in the Big Ten, which will allow us to arrive at final record predictions, which will allow us to make our Big Ten Bowl projections. I am using this handy Big Ten Schedule grid for my weekly games. I will add in my Iowa predictions for the sake of weekly continuity, but you can read those predictions in greater detail at this link.
WEEK ONE
Arkansas State at Illinois: Illini win, 1-0
Indiana at Ball State: Indiana wins, 1-0
Tennessee Tech at Iowa: Iowa wins, 1-0
Western Michigan at Michigan: Michigan wins, 1-0
Youngstown State at Michigan State: MSU wins, 1-0
Minnesota at USC: Minnesota loses, 0-1
UT-Chattanooga at Nebraska: Nebraska wins, 1-0
Northwestern at Boston College: NW loses, 0-1
Akron at Ohio State: Ohio State wins, 1-0
Indiana State at Penn State: Penn State wins, 1-0
Middle Tennessee at Purdue: Purdue wins, 1-0
UNLV at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins, 1-0
Notes: Northwestern faces a tough challenge out of the box. BC won five straight regular season games to end the 2011 campaign to qualify for a bowl, and they return much of their offense, including a quarterback and 1200+ yard rusher. They are going to employ a power running game, something that Northwestern's defense did not do a good job of stopping last year and something that will keep their offense off the field. This will be a good game to watch, to see how Dan Persa has recovered from his Achilles injury from a year ago. It might be the most attractive Big Ten game of the first weekend.
WEEK TWO
SD State at Illinois: Illini win, 2-0
Virginia at Indiana: Indiana loses, 1-1
Iowa at Iowa State: Iowa wins, 2-0
Notre Dame at Michigan: Michigan wins, 2-0
Florida Atl at Michigan State: MSU wins, 2-0
New Mexico State at Minnesota: Minnesota wins, 1-1
Fresno at Nebraska: Nebraska wins, 2-0
Eastern Illinois at Northwestern: NW wins, 1-1
Toledo at Ohio State: OSU wins, 2-0
Alabama at Penn State: PSU loses, 1-1
Purdue at Rice: Purdue wins, 2-0
Oregon State at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins, 2-0
Notes: Notre Dame at Michigan is the marquee game of the weekend for the Big Ten, as it is just about every season. Alabama at Penn State looked a lot better when this series was contracted, but the Crimson Tide should easily outclass the Nittany Lions on the gridiron again this year. Purdue gets a nice test at Rice, but a test they should pass while Oregon State will be a solid early season test for Wisconsin as Arizona State was last year. That game is a resume stuffer come late November. In all, six games that will be worth keeping an eye on in conference play.
WEEK THREE
Arizona State at Illinois: Illini lose, 2-1
So. Carolina State at Indiana: Indiana wins, 2-1
Pittsburgh at Iowa: Iowa wins, 3-0
Eastern Michigan at Michigan: Michigan wins, 3-0
Michigan State at Notre Dame: MSU loses, 2-1
Miami (Ohio) at Minnesota: Minnesota wins, 2-1
Washington at Nebraska: Nebraska wins, 3-0
Northwestern at Army: NW wins, 2-1
Ohio State at Miami (FL): OSU loses, 2-1
Penn State at Temple: PSU wins, 2-1
SEMO at Purdue: Purdue wins, 3-0
Wisconsin vs NIU at Soldier Field: Wisconsin wins, 3-0
Notes: I think Arizona State has a solid team and a good season in front of them, but if Illinois can beat them at home, that would be a nice statement for them. MSU is on the road at South Bend and while they pack a veteran offense, some retooling on defense shows against the Irish. Washington vs Nebraska, again? Enough already. Northwestern at Army is another salty test for the Cats, against a team that is going to run the ball all day long, or at least try to. That's a good strategy against NW. Ohio State loses to the Canes in Miami and don't overlook Penn State playing at Temple, either. Temple had the Nits on the ropes in Happy Valley last year and they return 19 players that started at least six games one year ago.
WEEK FOUR
Western Michigan at Illinois: Illini win, 3-1
Indiana at North Texas: Indiana wins, 3-1
LA Monroe at Iowa: Iowa wins, 4-0
San Diego State at Michigan: Michigan wins, 4-0
Central Michigan at Michigan State: MSU wins, 3-1
ND State at Minnesota: Minnesota wins, 3-1
Nebraska at Wyoming: Nebraska wins, 4-0
Northwestern: BYE
Colorado at Ohio State: OSU wins, 3-1
Eastern Michigan at Penn State: PSU wins, 3-1
Purdue: BYE
South Dakota at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins, 4-0
Notes: This is one of the most boring weeks for Big Ten football in a long time. Colorado at Ohio State is at least somewhat compelling, given OSU's troubles and it being a BCS conference matchup. But the rest of the games appear to be dogs.
WEEK FIVE
Northwestern at Illinois: Illini win; ILL 4-1 (1-0) | NW 2-2 (0-1)
Penn State at Indiana: PSU wins; PSU 4-1 (1-0) | Indiana 3-2 (0-1)
Iowa: BYE
Minnesota at Michigan: Michigan wins; Michigan 5-0 (1-0) | Minnesota 3-2 | (0-1)
Michigan State at Ohio State: OSU wins; OSU 4-1 (1-0) | MSU 3-2 (0-1)
Nebraska at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins; Wisconsin 5-0 (1-0) | Nebraska 4-1 (0-1)
Notre Dame at Purdue: Purdue loses, 3-1
Notes: I am really looking forward to the Nebraska-Wisconsin game...a good measuring stick for both teams that intend to play one another again in Indianapolis. Michigan State at Ohio State is also a great measuring stick game for both teams; if MSU can steal one in The Shoe then the Legends will be extra tight.
WEEK SIX
Illinois at Indiana: Illini win, Illinois 5-1 (2-0) | Indiana 3-3 (0-2)
Iowa at Penn State: PSU wins; PSU 5-1 (2-0) | Iowa 4-1 (0-1)
Michigan at Northwestern: Michigan wins; Michigan 6-0 (2-0) | NW 2-3 (0-2)
MSU: BYE
Minnesota at Purdue: Purdue wins; Purdue 4-1 (1-0) | Minnesota 3-3 (0-2)
Ohio State at Nebraska: Nebraska wins; Nebraska 5-1 (1-1) | Ohio State 4-2 (1-1)
Wisconsin: BYE
Notes: The Iowa-Penn State prediction is still bugging me a bit. I just don't think the Nittany Lions are going to have a strong team this year, but with so many questions marks on the Iowa side, I have no idea what type of road team they will have in 2011. You have to pack a defense to win on the road...Michigan gets to 6-0 this year; that five-win mark has been a hurdle for them the past two seasons (with regards to getting the 5th win and the season turning south)...OSU at Nebraska will be fun to watch.
Check back with us late Thursday night for the conclusion to our week by week look at the 2011 Big Ten season and what that will mean to the bowl slotting process. After having a late night discussion with a college football confidant on Wednesday, and this person already having projected the Big Ten and every other BCS school's record plus the major independents and BCS-Busters, a scenario is setting up for the Big Ten to get just one BCS bid...that is if you are drinking the Notre Dame kool-aid.
As I type this, I don't have records in mind for any Big Ten team, though I did make some spitball record projections back in May. I have not hidden my opinion with Wisconsin is the best team in the Big Ten, nor have I hidden my Legends pick of Nebraska. Those picks were made at the macro level, and in the case of Nebraska I have not gone through every game to see how they hold up.
Now, I want to make a weekly game by game prediction for each team in the Big Ten, which will allow us to arrive at final record predictions, which will allow us to make our Big Ten Bowl projections. I am using this handy Big Ten Schedule grid for my weekly games. I will add in my Iowa predictions for the sake of weekly continuity, but you can read those predictions in greater detail at this link.
WEEK ONE
Arkansas State at Illinois: Illini win, 1-0
Indiana at Ball State: Indiana wins, 1-0
Tennessee Tech at Iowa: Iowa wins, 1-0
Western Michigan at Michigan: Michigan wins, 1-0
Youngstown State at Michigan State: MSU wins, 1-0
Minnesota at USC: Minnesota loses, 0-1
UT-Chattanooga at Nebraska: Nebraska wins, 1-0
Northwestern at Boston College: NW loses, 0-1
Akron at Ohio State: Ohio State wins, 1-0
Indiana State at Penn State: Penn State wins, 1-0
Middle Tennessee at Purdue: Purdue wins, 1-0
UNLV at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins, 1-0
Notes: Northwestern faces a tough challenge out of the box. BC won five straight regular season games to end the 2011 campaign to qualify for a bowl, and they return much of their offense, including a quarterback and 1200+ yard rusher. They are going to employ a power running game, something that Northwestern's defense did not do a good job of stopping last year and something that will keep their offense off the field. This will be a good game to watch, to see how Dan Persa has recovered from his Achilles injury from a year ago. It might be the most attractive Big Ten game of the first weekend.
WEEK TWO
SD State at Illinois: Illini win, 2-0
Virginia at Indiana: Indiana loses, 1-1
Iowa at Iowa State: Iowa wins, 2-0
Notre Dame at Michigan: Michigan wins, 2-0
Florida Atl at Michigan State: MSU wins, 2-0
New Mexico State at Minnesota: Minnesota wins, 1-1
Fresno at Nebraska: Nebraska wins, 2-0
Eastern Illinois at Northwestern: NW wins, 1-1
Toledo at Ohio State: OSU wins, 2-0
Alabama at Penn State: PSU loses, 1-1
Purdue at Rice: Purdue wins, 2-0
Oregon State at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins, 2-0
Notes: Notre Dame at Michigan is the marquee game of the weekend for the Big Ten, as it is just about every season. Alabama at Penn State looked a lot better when this series was contracted, but the Crimson Tide should easily outclass the Nittany Lions on the gridiron again this year. Purdue gets a nice test at Rice, but a test they should pass while Oregon State will be a solid early season test for Wisconsin as Arizona State was last year. That game is a resume stuffer come late November. In all, six games that will be worth keeping an eye on in conference play.
WEEK THREE
Arizona State at Illinois: Illini lose, 2-1
So. Carolina State at Indiana: Indiana wins, 2-1
Pittsburgh at Iowa: Iowa wins, 3-0
Eastern Michigan at Michigan: Michigan wins, 3-0
Michigan State at Notre Dame: MSU loses, 2-1
Miami (Ohio) at Minnesota: Minnesota wins, 2-1
Washington at Nebraska: Nebraska wins, 3-0
Northwestern at Army: NW wins, 2-1
Ohio State at Miami (FL): OSU loses, 2-1
Penn State at Temple: PSU wins, 2-1
SEMO at Purdue: Purdue wins, 3-0
Wisconsin vs NIU at Soldier Field: Wisconsin wins, 3-0
Notes: I think Arizona State has a solid team and a good season in front of them, but if Illinois can beat them at home, that would be a nice statement for them. MSU is on the road at South Bend and while they pack a veteran offense, some retooling on defense shows against the Irish. Washington vs Nebraska, again? Enough already. Northwestern at Army is another salty test for the Cats, against a team that is going to run the ball all day long, or at least try to. That's a good strategy against NW. Ohio State loses to the Canes in Miami and don't overlook Penn State playing at Temple, either. Temple had the Nits on the ropes in Happy Valley last year and they return 19 players that started at least six games one year ago.
WEEK FOUR
Western Michigan at Illinois: Illini win, 3-1
Indiana at North Texas: Indiana wins, 3-1
LA Monroe at Iowa: Iowa wins, 4-0
San Diego State at Michigan: Michigan wins, 4-0
Central Michigan at Michigan State: MSU wins, 3-1
ND State at Minnesota: Minnesota wins, 3-1
Nebraska at Wyoming: Nebraska wins, 4-0
Northwestern: BYE
Colorado at Ohio State: OSU wins, 3-1
Eastern Michigan at Penn State: PSU wins, 3-1
Purdue: BYE
South Dakota at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins, 4-0
Notes: This is one of the most boring weeks for Big Ten football in a long time. Colorado at Ohio State is at least somewhat compelling, given OSU's troubles and it being a BCS conference matchup. But the rest of the games appear to be dogs.
WEEK FIVE
Northwestern at Illinois: Illini win; ILL 4-1 (1-0) | NW 2-2 (0-1)
Penn State at Indiana: PSU wins; PSU 4-1 (1-0) | Indiana 3-2 (0-1)
Iowa: BYE
Minnesota at Michigan: Michigan wins; Michigan 5-0 (1-0) | Minnesota 3-2 | (0-1)
Michigan State at Ohio State: OSU wins; OSU 4-1 (1-0) | MSU 3-2 (0-1)
Nebraska at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins; Wisconsin 5-0 (1-0) | Nebraska 4-1 (0-1)
Notre Dame at Purdue: Purdue loses, 3-1
Notes: I am really looking forward to the Nebraska-Wisconsin game...a good measuring stick for both teams that intend to play one another again in Indianapolis. Michigan State at Ohio State is also a great measuring stick game for both teams; if MSU can steal one in The Shoe then the Legends will be extra tight.
WEEK SIX
Illinois at Indiana: Illini win, Illinois 5-1 (2-0) | Indiana 3-3 (0-2)
Iowa at Penn State: PSU wins; PSU 5-1 (2-0) | Iowa 4-1 (0-1)
Michigan at Northwestern: Michigan wins; Michigan 6-0 (2-0) | NW 2-3 (0-2)
MSU: BYE
Minnesota at Purdue: Purdue wins; Purdue 4-1 (1-0) | Minnesota 3-3 (0-2)
Ohio State at Nebraska: Nebraska wins; Nebraska 5-1 (1-1) | Ohio State 4-2 (1-1)
Wisconsin: BYE
Notes: The Iowa-Penn State prediction is still bugging me a bit. I just don't think the Nittany Lions are going to have a strong team this year, but with so many questions marks on the Iowa side, I have no idea what type of road team they will have in 2011. You have to pack a defense to win on the road...Michigan gets to 6-0 this year; that five-win mark has been a hurdle for them the past two seasons (with regards to getting the 5th win and the season turning south)...OSU at Nebraska will be fun to watch.
Check back with us late Thursday night for the conclusion to our week by week look at the 2011 Big Ten season and what that will mean to the bowl slotting process. After having a late night discussion with a college football confidant on Wednesday, and this person already having projected the Big Ten and every other BCS school's record plus the major independents and BCS-Busters, a scenario is setting up for the Big Ten to get just one BCS bid...that is if you are drinking the Notre Dame kool-aid.
