B1G Predictions: Final 2011 Big Ten standings predictions

[JonDMiller]

We'll pick up where we left off, having predicted every Big Ten game through Week Six. You can take a look at those here.

Here are the 'through Week Six' standings as I see them:

Leaders

Illinois 5-1 (2-0)
Penn State 5-1 (2-0)
Wisconsin 5-0 (1-0)
Purdue 4-1 (1-0)
Ohio State 4-2 (1-1)
Indiana 3-3 (0-2)

Legends

Michigan 6-0 (2-0)
Nebraska 5-1 (1-1)
Iowa 4-1 (0-1)
MSU 3-2 (0-1)
Minnesota 3-3 (0-2)
Northwestern 2-3 (0-2)

Now, let's finish the regular season and look at our projected Big Ten title game matchup and champion.

WEEK SEVEN

Ohio State at Illinois: Ohio State wins; OSU 5-2 (2-1) | Illinois 5-2 (2-1)
Indiana at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins; 6-0 (2-0) | Indiana 3-4 (0-3)
Northwestern at Iowa: Iowa wins; Iowa 5-1 (1-1) | Northwestern 2-4 (0-3)
Michigan at Michigan State: MSU wins; Michigan 6-1 (2-1) | MSU 4-2 (1-1)
Minnesota: BYE
Nebraska: BYE
Purdue at Penn State: PSU wins; PSU 6-1 (3-0) | 4-2 (1-1)

Notes: As I see it, Illinois has a chance to remain a factor in the Leaders race. If only they hadn't lost their top three players to early NFL decisions. It's a must win for Ohio State. Michigan State finds itself in a must win position home against Michigan. If the Wolverines can win this one on the road, they would be in a powerful position. Penn State has a very favorable Big Ten schedule this year through the first five weeks of Big Ten play as you will see.

WEEK EIGHT

Illinois at Purdue: Purdue wins; Purdue 5-2 (2-1) | Illinois 5-3 (2-2)
Indiana at Iowa: Iowa wins; Iowa 6-1 (2-1) | Indiana 3-5 (0-4)
Michigan: BYE
Wisconsin at Michigan State: MSU wins; MSU 5-2 (2-1) | Wisconsin 6-1 (2-1)
Nebraska at Minnesota: Nebraska wins; Nebraska 6-1 (2-1) | Minnesota 3-4 (0-3)
Penn State at Northwestern; NW wins; NW 3-4 (1-3) | PSU 6-2 (3-1)
OSU: BYE

Notes: Again, Illinois can really be a factor in the Leaders race. Two winnable games back to back I have them losing. MSU also finds a tough two game stretch vs Michigan and Wisconsin, and I have them beating both. A split is just as likely and two losses are hardly impossible.

WEEK NINE

Illinois at Penn State: Illinois wins; Illinois 6-3 (3-2) | PSU 6-3 (3-2)
Northwestern at Indiana: NW wins; NW 4-4 (2-3) | Indiana 3-6 (0-5)
Iowa at Minnesota; Iowa wins: Iowa 7-1 (3-1) | Minnesota 3-5 (0-4)
Michigan State at Nebraska: Nebraska wins; Nebraska 7-1 (3-1) | MSU 5-3 (2-2)
Wisconsin at Ohio State: Wisconsin wins; Wisconsin 7-1 (3-1) | Ohio State 5-3 (2-2)
Purdue at Michigan: Michigan wins; Michigan 7-1 (3-1) | Purdue 5-3 (2-2)

Notes: One of Illinois and Penn State may finish second place in the Leaders..then again, it could be a three way tie..we'll see how things shape up for Ohio State the next few games. Iowa at 7-1 after eight games and I picked them to finish the year losing 3 of 4? Might be a shaky call there. Michigan State has a real, real tough stretch here in the middle, don't they? Old Sparty programs would be wilting by now...we'll see how this year's group handles this four game stretch at Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and at Nebraska. 2-2 would seem like a safe call...but they could lose them all and have five losses after Week Nine...did not see that when I looked at them in May. If Wisconsin can beat Ohio State, and then wins out including the Big Ten title game, they are a legit player for a Top 3 end of year BCS ranking and possible national title contender. I wrote about that in early June when it looked like they would get Russell Wilson at QB, which they did.

WEEK TEN

Illinois: BYE
Indiana at Ohio State: Ohio State wins; OSU 6-3 (3-2) | Indiana 3-7 (0-6)
Michigan at Iowa: Michigan wins; Michigan 8-1 (4-1) | Iowa 7-2 (3-2)
Minnesota at Michigan State: MSU wins; MSU 6-3 (3-2) | Minnesota 3-6 (0-5)
Northwestern at Nebraska; Nebraska wins; Nebraska 8-1 (4-1) | NW 4-5 (2-4)
Purdue at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins; Wisconsin 8-1 (4-1) | 5-4 (2-3)
Penn State: BYE

Notes: Some people are accusing me of being way too high on Michigan. Watching this play out in real time as I type it, without any preconceived notions going into it, I can see where you are coming from and won't argue with you. I don't like what I am seeing, but going game by game, these are just my gut calls. Will Nebraska be looking ahead to next week's game at Penn State and overlook Dan Persa and the Wildcats? This is a spot where the difference in playing in the Big 12 vs the Big Ten could shine through.

WEEK ELEVEN

Michigan at Illinois: Illinois wins; Illinois 7-3 (4-2) | Michigan 8-2 (4-2)
Indiana: BYE
Michigan State at Iowa: Iowa wins; Iowa 8-2 (4-2) | MSU 6-4 (3-3)
Wisconsin at Minnesota: Wisconsin wins; Wisconsin 9-1 (5-1) | Minnesota 3-7 (0-6)
Nebraska at Penn State: PSU wins; PSU 7-3 (4-2) | Nebraska 8-2 (4-2)
Rice at Northwestern: NW wins; NW 5-5 (2-4)
Ohio State at Purdue: OSU wins, OSU 7-3 (4-2) | Purdue 5-5 (2-4)

Notes: Perhaps I have too much love for Illinois this year? Again, had they not lost their three best players, they could have given Wisconsin a run in this year's Leaders as they play in Week 12 and that will be for a share of the division lead in my picks. Iowa at 8-2, with a roadie at Purdue the next week...if it turns out this way, no matter if they win or lose to Purdue the season finale in Lincoln would be for the Legends title...but PSU beating Nebraska might be a stretch.

WEEK TWELVE

Wisconsin at Illinois: Wisconsin wins; Wisconsin 10-1 (6-1) | Illinois 7-4 (4-3)
Indiana at MSU: MSU wins; MSU 7-4 (4-3) | Indiana 3-8 (0-7)
Iowa at Purdue: Purdue wins; Purdue 6-5 (3-4) | Iowa 8-3 (4-3)
Nebraska at Michigan: Nebraska wins; Nebraska 9-2 (5-2) | Michigan 8-3 (4-3)
Minnesota at Northwestern: NW wins; NW 6-5 (3-4) | Minnesota 3-8 (0-7)
Penn State at Ohio State: OSU wins; OSU 8-3 (5-2) | PSU 7-4 (4-3)

Notes: Wisconsin is rolling down hill by this time of the year...I like my Purdue over Iowa pick even less now than I did making it last week...Michigan runs into the league's best defense, and they are cooling off...Ohio State is making a late season move.

WEEK THIRTEEN

Illinois at Minnesota: Illini win; Illini 8-4 (4-4) | Minnesota 3-9 (0-8)
Purdue at Indiana: Purdue wins; Purdue 7-5 (4-4) | Indiana 3-9 (0-8)
Iowa at Nebraska: Nebraska wins; Nebraska 10-2 (6-2) | Iowa 8-4 (4-4)
Ohio State at Michigan: Michigan wins; Michigan 8-4 (5-3) | Ohio State 8-4 (5-3)
Michigan State at Northwestern; MSU wins; MSU 8-4 (5-3) | NW 6-6 (3-5)
Penn State at Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins, Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1) | PSU 7-5 (4-4)

Notes: Illinois and MSU pick of late November road wins due to their solid running schemes in cold weather...Michigan snaps Ohio State's winning streak...Wisconsin has the best record in the Big Ten and might be one win away from the BCS title game.

HN.com's PROJECTED 2011 BIG TEN FINISH

LEADERS

Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)
Ohio State 8-4 (5-3)
Illinois 8-4 (5-3)
Penn State 7-5 (4-4)
Purdue 7-4 (4-4)
Indiana 3-9 (0-8)

LEGENDS

Nebraska 10-2 (6-2)
Michigan 8-4 (5-3)
Michigan State 8-4 (5-3)
Iowa 8-4 (4-4)
Northwestern 6-6 (3-5)
Minnesota 3-9 (0-8)

BIG TEN TITLE GAME

Nebraska vs Wisconsin: I think the Badger offense will once again be rolling at this time of year, just like it was one year ago when it averaged 67 points per game over the last three games of the regular season. Nebraska will have a good defense and will have already faced the Badgers once in 2011. It's tough to beat a team twice in the same year, or so the old saying goes...just ask Nebraska about Washington last season. That being said, I think the team Nebraska will play will be better than the team it will lose to in Week Five. The Badgers claim the first ever Big Ten title game, moving to 12-1 on the season and a great chance of playing for the National Title game. Nebraska finishes its inaugural campaign as a Big Ten member at 10-3...but if Notre Dame goes 10-2 this year and if a BCS Buster is inside the Top 12, the Huskers could be left out in the cold for a BCS bid...more on that tomorrow when we make our Big Ten Bowl predictions.

 

[fufred]

0% chance OSU loses 4 regular season games. I don't care who coaches them OSU still has the most talent in the B10. 10-2 or 9-3 I could buy, no way 8-4.

 

[JHHawk]

I agree with Fufred. OSU still potent,and will beat Wis.
I have Iowa losing to PSU and Neb,and winning the Legends at 6-2.
Iowa reminds me of 2002...no one was confident going into that season either.

 

[busabus114]

I agree with Fufred. OSU still potent,and will beat Wis.
I have Iowa losing to PSU and Neb,and winning the Legends at 6-2.
Iowa reminds me of 2002...no one was confident going into that season either.

I like the optimism but comparing this squad to the 2002 team is a big reach. The 2002 team had one unknown variable and that was Banks. The rest of the team was rock solid to exceptional (O-line). This years team has a ton of question marks.

 

[Hawkfromnorwalk]

Not a big fan of predicting Iowa to lose 3 of the last 4 games. If Iowa is going to stake their claim they have to be able to finish the season strong, not shrivel up and die like they did last year, or 2006, or 2005...

 

[INTIMIDATORHawk]

Ferentz had a period of time when his teams always finished strong, and played their best football in November.... a lot like how Steve Alford's basketball teams were playing their best Bball in November.

November always used to be a great month for Hawkeye men's sports.....

In recent memory, November hasn't been as impressive for Kirk. Hopefully they rediscover the formula that lets them close out strong.

 

[Raziel]

0% chance OSU loses 4 regular season games. I don't care who coaches them OSU still has the most talent in the B10. 10-2 or 9-3 I could buy, no way 8-4.

How many games last year did OSU win solely because of Terrelle Pryor? I know for sure the Iowa game counts as one. Plug Joe Bauserman (sp?) in instead of Pryor, and I'd be willing to bet the 2010 team was 9-3/8-4 - and that is WITH a lot of talent they won't have this year and perhaps the most successful coach in Big Ten history.

One thing that people seem to forget that Jim Tressel was REALLY good at: not losing games OSU was supposed to win. Talent isn't the reason JT had such a great record against the Big Ten's inferior teams -throughout the course of college football history, we've seen a number of teams with loads of talent that couldn't win games - JT was the reason OSU had that great record. You can minimize the loss of JT all you want, but the reality is, his record against he Big Ten's marginal teams could be his most impressive legacy at OSU. I'll guarantee you that OSU loses at least one game they are favored big in this year - and that is a game that JT would have won.

Lastly, the 2011 OSU team chemistry is going to be seriously tested this year - with all the negativity surrounding the program, the suspended starters for five games, & the loss of a head coach (and a punishment yet to be named from the NCAA for the Tresselgate saga), I'd expect enough turmoil in the OSU locker room alone to account for at least 3 losses. Also, in the past, a lot of teams looked at OSU as kind of an unbeatable team due to their extreme dominance of the league - it was kind of a self fulfilling prophecy that you'd lose to OSU. I don't foresee that happening anymore - all dynasty's have down periods...OSU is about to hit one - at least relative to the success they've had since 2002.

Also, you could buy 9-3 but there is a 0% chance at 8-4? That seems like a suspect assertion, mathematically speaking.

 

[creeksider]

Why is everyone picking Penn St over the Hawks? They don't have a good QB and their O-line is a question mark and that is a bad combination. I don't see any logic to the picks - just "they are PSU and they are due."

 

[BSpringsteen]

If Iowa finishes in 4th place IN THE LEADERS, that is a fail of a season.

We ought to be no worse than 5-3 in conference.

Doing so, would likely mean that we go to Lincoln for the trip to Indy.

 

[mikjones24]

Why is everyone picking Penn St over the Hawks? They don't have a good QB and their O-line is a question mark and that is a bad combination. I don't see any logic to the picks - just "they are PSU and they are due."

Plus, they've beaten us once in Happy Valley since 1995. It's going to be a tough game but I'm more optimistic than not.

 

[HawkeyeMike23]

0% chance OSU loses 4 regular season games. I don't care who coaches them OSU still has the most talent in the B10. 10-2 or 9-3 I could buy, no way 8-4.

If there is one guy on this board who's predictions you can trust, its fufred. You can take his guarantees to the bank.

That said, I actually agree. I've seen OSU at +500 to win the B10 on some sites. I think there's a lot of value there. The B10 is wide open, I'm not sold on Wilson being the Wisconsin savior yet. OSU could use this season as a "no one believes in us" type year and really thrive playing the underdog role for once.

 

[Benddontbreak]

IMO predicting a 4th place finish in our division is being too modest. No way does meatchicken finish ahead of us and MSU. Gotta agree with fufred on 9-3/10-2 for OSU, with Wisc taking their division comfortably.

 

[goods10]

IMO predicting a 4th place finish in our division is being too modest. No way does meatchicken finish ahead of us and MSU. Gotta agree with fufred on 9-3/10-2 for OSU, with Wisc taking their division comfortably.

How is Wisconsin finishing at 11-1 and OSU finishing at 10-2 winning their division comfortably? That is only one game wiggle room if my math is correct

 

[JonDMiller]

How is Wisconsin finishing at 11-1 and OSU finishing at 10-2 winning their division comfortably? That is only one game wiggle room if my math is correct

Overall record doesn't factor into the conference standings. I have Wisky at 7-1 in league, and OSU 5-3.

 

[JonDMiller]

I realize things like this are lightning rods for debate, and that is part of the fun.

You should take the time and go through this exercise yourself, without any preconceived ideas of what its going to look like at the end...just let it flow, and see what you get. I think you may surprise yourself, going through the micro exercise, at what the macro will wind up looking like.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

Jon, this may be one of the most wide-open BigTen races in years. Delaney has to be loving it. In the first year of 12 team, 2-division play it's going to be crazy!

 

[hawkeyescott]

I realize things like this are lightning rods for debate, and that is part of the fun.

You should take the time and go through this exercise yourself, without any preconceived ideas of what its going to look like at the end...just let it flow, and see what you get. I think you may surprise yourself, going through the micro exercise, at what the macro will wind up looking like.

Here is what I got.

Legends:
MSU 6-2/9-3
Iowa 6-2/10-2
Neb 5-3/9-3
Michigan 5-3/8-4
NW 2-6/5-7
Minn 1-7/4-8

Leaders:
Wisc 7-1/11-1
OSU 6-2/9-3
Ill 4-4/7-5
PSU 4-4/7-5
Purdue 1-7/4-8
Indiana 1-7/4-8

Wisconsin over MSU in the Big Ten title game. I have Iowa losing to MSU therefore they get the tie breaker and win the division.

I have a hard time believing that Nebraska won't have at least 3 losses @Michigan, @PSU and @Wisconsin when they struggled with lesser teams on the road in the Big 12.

 

[JHHawk]

I like the optimism but comparing this squad to the 2002 team is a big reach. The 2002 team had one unknown variable and that was Banks. The rest of the team was rock solid to exceptional (O-line). This years team has a ton of question marks.

The Hawks had a lot of question marks coming into that season.
New QB
TE- Dallas Clark was still unproven,really.
OL- solid
WR- CJ Jones was new,and unproven,as was Mo Brown.
RB- Freddy Russell was buried on the depth chart,with knee injuries among other issues,for others. Jermelle Lewis was unproven.

Defense was really a crapshoot coming into that season. Babs was converting to dline,Roth was converting from lb, just not a lot of experience up front. LB was ok,d-backs were frosh Allen and Johnson...

That defense gave up 27 pts to Miami (Ohio) and 35 to ISU...and 35 to PSU...it only really gelled later on in the season.

This years team has question marks but much of the same issues,mainly inexperience at QB,d-line,rb,and lb.

I think they will surprise.