Athlon's way too early '11 predictions
- Thread starter spliff45
- Start date
Find it interesting and noteworthy that they list Sash as gone (with an asterisk of course), but not Prater or McNutt. Losing Sash would certainly hurt, but with all of our other loses what's one more?
I forget how heavy our losses are until I saw it enumerated in black and white.
I forget how heavy our losses are until I saw it enumerated in black and white.
nationalchamps
Well-Known Member
5th??? LOL...Do these guys ever do any research?
I'll take some of that action right now. However, we had better get used to it; when you disappoint in the preceeding year, then lost a ton of people to boot, they are not going to take a chance on getting burned two consecutive years. Accordingly, all these genuises will pick Iowa to struggle mightily next year. Personally, I like our schedule an am hardly willing to concede that we will no longer be able to handle the two Michigans next year. State was a paper tiger this year and will never be anything more than a pretended under Dantonio.
Of course they do. Their research shows a 7-5 team with heavy losses on both sides of the ball. As fans we have a tendency to gloss over our weaknesses and to greatly exaggerate our strengths. When it comes to the other teams we're up against we do just the opposite.
Looking at our team outsiders see the following-
No proven depth at RB
A QB with limited experience at best.
Heavy losses at WR and TE
A solid OL
History- We rarely are an explosive offense and typically are void playmakers.
We were shaky on special teams and there's little reason to expect anything more than average.
Our defense losses are even heavier given this is where most/all NFL talent resides.
bcl20
Well-Known Member
We do lose a lot but Ferentz coached teams don't have losing records often at all. They usually finish at least 6-6, 7-5 in the regular season. Knowing this and the schedule we have I'd expect to finish in that range, especially after looking at the schedule.
hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
and as usual...Penn St is overrated.
Funny how the critics love to beat up Stanzi for his inconsistency, yet say a new QB is one of our vunerabilities. I think Vandy will do just fine.
Funny how the critics love to beat up Stanzi for his inconsistency, yet say a new QB is one of our vunerabilities. I think Vandy will do just fine.
That record would put us squarely in that 5th spot as predicted. I think most fans have a more miopic view and expect 1st or 2nd.
bcl20
Well-Known Member
Not necessarily. Looking at other conferences with divisions a majority of teams with that record finished about third in their division. There was an occasion or two where they finished 5th.
First, you cite history on offense but fail to mention history on defense. Iowa reloads on that side of the ball. They'll be no worse than average on that side of the ball if history is any indicator.
Second, you fail to include the schedule as a big factor.
Third, The losses on the d-line are completely overblown. We return two starters for four positions. This isn't a complete rebuild job that some make it out to be.
Also, their research should show how teams with a bunch of close losses from the prior year that return almost it's entire offensive line tend to see increases in their win totals.
In reality it all falls in JVB. If he's JC bad Iowa will be lucky to get to a bowl game. If he's average Iowa will be playing on Jan 1st (Outback or Gator) If he's above average Iowa has a shot to win the division and get to the conference title game.
rjhindm
Well-Known Member
Michigan will have a new coach...and maybe a whole new offensive style. I think Next year could be rough for them. I also think every team is going to circle Nebraska on their schedule, it will be very tough for Nebraska to finish in the top 3. As for Iowa it is all going to rest on the shoulders of Vandy....We saw what he could do when he played at OSU...so it could be an interesting (yet another) up and down season...
DYK88
Well-Known Member
I'm sticking with 8-4 for now. I think 4-0 non-conference and 4-4 in BT play. This team will have zero expectations from the outside folks. If so, that should be good enough for outback bowl-type game. If Coker can be half as good as bowl game, avg around 100 yards per game, it will allow JVB to get some nice gains via PA passing. Herman will be the new target at TE, and think he will do just fine. I think most hawkeye fans will be pleased with next season.
Remember guys, this is when KF's system definitely helps a young, inexperienced team out...no crazy schemes to learn. Just straight ahead football and base D preventing big plays.
Remember guys, this is when KF's system definitely helps a young, inexperienced team out...no crazy schemes to learn. Just straight ahead football and base D preventing big plays.
MissouriHerk
Well-Known Member
Athlon is way off. Michigan will be worse next year than this year. They will have a new coach and new system to implement. Nebraska will take licks with the toughest schedule in the conference next year. Michigan State does not historically reload on defense as well as Iowa does. Northwestern will probably beat us, but will lose too many games in the conference. We have a legitimate shot at winning the division next year, with one of the softer schedules in the confernece. No Wisconsin or OSU. By the time we play Nebraska, our now "young" players will be experienced. Coker's game at Mizzou is not a fluke. When you have to replace your QB, best to do it with a guy who has been in the system for years and has playing experience, and Coker and a strong OL will give him time to develop. On D, linebackers cannot be worse than the situation was this year, and Mike Daniels and Binns will anchor what I think will be a decent DL. We don't know the situation at D Back, but I see Bernstein finally healthy and stepping right in. I predict 9-3, two or three losses in conference play and, when we go into Lincoln, we might be one Neb loss away from winning the Division. The team won't be as talented as the 2010 team, but the schedule is actually more favorable, especiallhy in light of Neb's schedule, Michigan's transition, and MSU's comparable losses on D.
MoseSchrute
Well-Known Member
Nebraska's "gauntlet" really is looking easier. All of those teams lose a lot or will be in transition.
What I think is missing from this prediction is a Win-Loss of the schedule. If they think Iowa is going to be 7-5 (3-5 Conference) and 5th then it is an okay prediction. If they think Iowa is going to go 4-8 then I think that is pretty poor. Also, if they aren't doing Win-Loss then there is a reasonable chance they haven't even accounted for the schedule in their predictions.
HawKCP
Well-Known Member
Wow, OSU loses a lot. I'm sure they have a lot of talent waiting in the wings but that's a lot of key losses. If their Junior commitments come true that would be an entire OL, 1/2 DL, 2/3 LB, both CB, 1 S, 2 WR (including Cris Carter's kid), a 3 year starter at QB. That doesn't even factor in Boom Herron and Devier Posey going pro. Holy balls.
