Well I don't think I set a record. You fixated on my first sentence in which I admittedly short-changed Franny. He is 4-9 in the BTT, still hardly impressive. Iowa has been an 11,7,7, and 10 seed in the dance. That averages out to an 8 or 9. I was pretty accurate on that one. If the season ended today Fran would average 19 wins a season. If he wins 1 or 2 more which is probably all the more that is coming, he would average closer to 20 wins. Either way, I was pretty accurate on that one too. Now, you can always have outliers and exceptions to the rule but in 10 years Iowa has developed a remarkably consistent average to good program, one that still hasn't taken that next step and likely won't. They aren't going to all of a sudden contend for Big Ten or tournament titles. So overall I'd say my comments were pretty fair even if not totally 100% dead on accurate.
I did decide to take one posters advice and google some data. If we ended the season every year on January 31st Iowa would be a legit big ten title contender most years. Fran is 135-77 through the month of January in 10 seasons, a 64% winning percentage. But when the calendar flips to February and March and everything gets ratcheted up a notch with pushes for post season tournaments it is fair to say Iowa doesn't show very well. Iowa's combined record in the regular season, conference tournament, and NCAA tournament in Feb and March is 53-59 the last 10 years. That is a paltry 47% winning percentage. That's called the Fran Fade. And it is the reason why there is no reason to expect Iowa to do anything spectacular this postseason, despite the presence of an All-American on the roster.
Sorry I'm not perfect in my bullet points, but my overall premise (not expecting Iowa to make a postseason run) does still stand and the data backs it up.