Around the Big10

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NikeHawk21

Well-Known Member
Several teams around the league are off to pretty decent starts record wise, which for some has been primarily due to a softer schedule. I'm not sure whether that is good or bad for Iowa, but below is a list of the teams that I think Iowa will be competing with for the middle tier of the conference.

Minnesota: 10-1.
Quality Wins: Ark & Vandy
Bad losses: None

Maryland: 10-1
Quality Wins: KSU, GTWN, OKST
Bad losses: None

Rutgers: 9-1
Quality Wins: None
Bad losses: None

Ohio State: 8-2
Quality Wins: Providence & Uconn
Bad losses: FAU

Northwestern: 7-2
Quality Wins: Wake
Bad losses: None

Illinois: 8-3
Quality Wins: NCST & VCU
Bad losses: Winthrop

Michigan: 7-3
Quality Wins: Marquette & Texas
Bad losses: None

Michigan State: 7-4
Quality Wins: Wichita State
Bad losses: None

Penn State: 6-5
Quality Wins: None
Bad losses: Albany & George Mason

Nebraska: 5-5
Quality Wins: Dayton
Bad losses: None

Minnesota and Rutgers schedules have been extremely easy, whereas MSU and Nebraska have played several top teams.

After putting together the list I think there are 3 clear cut favorites in the Big10: UW, Purdue, and Indiana, who weren't included above. The next tier is probably Michigan State, Maryland and Michigan. Followed by the rest.

With a healthy Cook I think Iowa can beat any team in the league outside of the top 3. Interestingly enough, Iowa only plays two teams in the "projected top 6" twice (Purdue & Maryland), so our schedule sets up favorably.
 
Very winnable games (6). Iowa should be favorite:
Home: Rutgers, Nebraska, Illinois, Penn State
Road: Rutgers, Nebraska

Good chance to win (6):
Home: Michigan, Maryland, Ohio State
Away: Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern

Fighters chance (2):
Home: N/A
Away: Maryland, Michigan State

That's why they play the game (4):
Home: Purdue, Indiana
Away: Purdue, Wisconsin
 
To make the tournament we need all 6 of the must wins, 4 of the good chance, and one of the fighters chance. Plus one in the Big 10 tournament.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
Very winnable games (6). Iowa should be favorite:
Home: Rutgers, Nebraska, Illinois, Penn State
Road: Rutgers, Nebraska

Good chance to win (6):
Home: Michigan, Maryland, Ohio State
Away: Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern

Fighters chance (2):
Home: N/A
Away: Maryland, Michigan State

That's why they play the game (4):
Home: Purdue, Indiana
Away: Purdue, Wisconsin
Click to expand...

I think we can go 5-1 in the "very winnable" category; 4-2 in the "good chance" category; 1-1 in the "fighter's chance" category; and 1-3 in the "that's why you play" category. That puts us at 11-7. If we can get by the UNI game and win the last 2 non-con's, that'd put us at 8-5 in the non-con, plus 11-7 in the B1G, which would give us a final record of 19-12. If we can go 1-1 in B1G tourney play, that'd put us at 20-13. Not sure that's enough, but it'd at least give us a fighting chance.....
 
SpiderRico said:
I think we can go 5-1 in the "very winnable" category; 4-2 in the "good chance" category; 1-1 in the "fighter's chance" category; and 1-3 in the "that's why you play" category. That puts us at 11-7. If we can get by the UNI game and win the last 2 non-con's, that'd put us at 8-5 in the non-con, plus 11-7 in the B1G, which would give us a final record of 19-12. If we can go 1-1 in B1G tourney play, that'd put us at 20-13. Not sure that's enough, but it'd at least give us a fighting chance.....
Click to expand...

It would also make Friday of the Big 10 tourney a huge game. Like MSU 4 years ago when we got screwed.
 
Just goes to show you how important the UNI game is. If we can win that and the last two Non-conference game that puts us at 8 wins.

Based on the above, 10-12 wins in the conference appears attainable. That puts us at 18-20 wins heading into the Big10 tourney., and I'd imagine at the very least on the bubble.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
Just goes to show you how important the UNI game is. If we can win that and the last two Non-conference game that puts us at 8 wins.

Based on the above, 10-12 wins in the conference appears attainable. That puts us at 18-20 wins heading into the Big10 tourney., and I'd imagine at the very least on the bubble.
Click to expand...

White lost 4 non conference games his senior year and they were completely clear of the bubble by the end of the regular season. They looked like they had less hope than this team does at this point in the year too.
 
PCHawk said:
White lost 4 non conference games his senior year and they were completely clear of the bubble by the end of the regular season. They looked like they had less hope than this team does at this point in the year too.
Click to expand...

That team didn't have any bad losses in the preseason but they didn't have any good wins either. I don't recall what the "hope" level was for that team, but the middle to bottom of the Big10 appeared to be down based on first glance. The bubble also fluctuates from year to year based on a variety of factors as well.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
That team didn't have any bad losses in the preseason but they didn't have any good wins either. I don't recall what the "hope" level was for that team, but the middle to bottom of the Big10 appeared to be down based on first glance. The bubble also fluctuates from year to year based on a variety of factors as well.
Click to expand...

After ISU murdered us at home and we could barely score a field goal against UNI, the hope level was really low.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
Very winnable games (6). Iowa should be favorite:
Home: Rutgers, Nebraska, Illinois, Penn State
Road: Rutgers, Nebraska

Good chance to win (6):
Home: Michigan, Maryland, Ohio State
Away: Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern

Fighters chance (2):
Home: N/A
Away: Maryland, Michigan State

That's why they play the game (4):
Home: Purdue, Indiana
Away: Purdue, Wisconsin
Click to expand...

MN is an unknown. They've done what they should and a "decent" ACC loss away.

IL is another one. Tracy Abrams is showing signs of getting back to form after 2 injuries. If he avoids injury, they could be a tough out either place. Healthy he was/is? the real deal.
 
PCHawk said:
After ISU murdered us at home and we could barely score a field goal against UNI, the hope level was really low.
Click to expand...

Yep, I was in total freak out mode after that UNI game. I said if Fran didn't make the tournament that year then it was time to get a different head coach.
 
deanvogs said:
Yep, I was in total freak out mode after that UNI game. I said if Fran didn't make the tournament that year then it was time to get a different head coach.
Click to expand...

Oh yeah that's right, that was when you were saying that. I didn't agree with you but I could hardly blame you at the time. Where we are right now doesn't look near as bad as it did then. The team is young and the recruits we have coming in are better. Also there are two more tourney appearances in the bag.
 
PCHawk said:
Oh yeah that's right, that was when you were saying that. I didn't agree with you but I could hardly blame you at the time. Where we are right now doesn't look near as bad as it did then. The team is young and the recruits we have coming in are better. Also there are two more tourney appearances in the bag.
Click to expand...

Totally agree about where we are now compared to then. That was my main arguement then, was you don't miss the tournament in year 4, after you totally collapsed at the end of season 3. As it is now, we have made 3 straight tournament, and this is a rebuild year. Apples and oranges.
 
HawkGold said:
MN is an unknown. They've done what they should and a "decent" ACC loss away.

IL is another one. Tracy Abrams is showing signs of getting back to form after 2 injuries. If he avoids injury, they could be a tough out either place. Healthy he was/is? the real deal.
Click to expand...

Yes, both teams have some talent and it will be interesting to see if they can put it all together. Both road games will certainly be tough but I don't think Iowa is overmatched by either of those teams.

I go back to what I said when these schedules first came out. If we can take care of business at home we will be in good shape. I think 6-3 or 7-2 at home is very attainable, and then we have at least 5 very winnable road games. Pull an upset somewhere and we will be in good shape.
 
SpiderRico said:
I think we can go 5-1 in the "very winnable" category; 4-2 in the "good chance" category; 1-1 in the "fighter's chance" category; and 1-3 in the "that's why you play" category. That puts us at 11-7. If we can get by the UNI game and win the last 2 non-con's, that'd put us at 8-5 in the non-con, plus 11-7 in the B1G, which would give us a final record of 19-12. If we can go 1-1 in B1G tourney play, that'd put us at 20-13. Not sure that's enough, but it'd at least give us a fighting chance.....
Click to expand...
I think it's a tough ask for the Hawkeyes this year, but if you say so, I'm right there, too. That would be Fran's best coaching job, if the Hawks get to the tournament this year.
 
Wouldn't put too much stock in Minnesota quite yet. Of their two big wins, Vanderbilt is terrible this year and Arkansas has fattened up on patsies.
 
Anything is attainable with Fran. Who thought we'd beat MSU & Purdue twice last year? It's the end of the conference schedule that worries me. 2 years in a row we've dropped games near the end of the conference schedule.
 
hawkation said:
Anything is attainable with Fran. Who thought we'd beat MSU & Purdue twice last year? It's the end of the conference schedule that worries me. 2 years in a row we've dropped games near the end of the conference schedule.
Click to expand...

Actually two years ago we won the last six.
 
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