Arizona game: Homer's take

[homerHAWKeye777]

So what's the score you are predicting Homer? I still think Iowa will win 31-10.

With regard to the range of what is possible ... I think that we could see ANYTHING from Iowa getting nipped by less than a score to an Iowa victory by a pretty large margin.

However, if I'm putting it "on the line" my gut feeling is that we could see a game that ends up like: Iowa 30, Arizona 17

What I'm particularly curious about is what will a game look like when our starting D plays the ENTIRE game.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Az will run blitz and pass blitz hoping to put us into long yardage and predictable situations. I think picking up the blitz is one key therefore.

Also Az uses 3 step drop quick passes hoping for missed tackles or blown asignments to get big plays. One misconception is that Iowa has not covered the middle for short passes well. From watching games and replays it is Davis who has problems. Tarp has done very well from what I have seen.

It Tarp goes out for any length of time it looks like Davis is very likely to be tested early and often with short over the middle throws.

If pass D is the concern when Tarp is out ... might they not err on the safe side and put in Johnson at MIKE instead of Davis? By my recollection, they have given both guys reps there.

 

[HawkinGoferLand]

Homer - how about special teams? Iowa has had nice starting field position on KOR and Meyers has been kicking off deep pretty consistently. Donahue is a weapon as long as we don't punt from the 37 yard line again.... We have not attempted a FG yet IIRC.

So starting field position can be a nice advantage to own.

 

[JHHawk]

Homer - how about special teams? Iowa has had nice starting field position on KOR and Meyers has been kicking off deep pretty consistently. Donahue is a weapon as long as we don't punt from the 37 yard line again.... We have not attempted a FG yet IIRC.

So starting field position can be a nice advantage to own.

Does the football fly further at Arizona due to the heat,low humidity and altitude? I hope so, cus our coverage on kickoffs was very shaky,not helped by the low line drive kicks by meyer. He has to make sure if he going to kick those line drives...they have to at least make it deep into the end zone.

I am hoping that both Meyer and donahue can really boom the ball down there and help out our challenged coverage teams. Oh..and it would be nice to see Mossbrucker or Murray make a few fgs,also...altho I do like tds better!

 

[TMel]

Excellent points as usual Homer! To me THE key point in this game will be our running game and more importantly our time of possession. Obviously, the former takes care of the latter. If we run the ball well and dominate the clock then their offense will not have many chances to score, which, in turn, may cause desperation to set in which equals mistakes. I like our running game versus their interior d-line. We win here, we win the game. They cannot possibly be prepared for the toughness and talent they're going to see playing the absolute cupcakes they've played so far. While we haven't exactly played world beaters we have at least played our most recent game against an opponent from a BCS conference and a nasty rival. They played The Citadel which is barely sports a college football team. Their middle linebacker was under 200 lbs for cripes sake. And not to beat up on Citadel too much, but I don't remember ever seeing them winning a game against a team with a pulse. I remember a few times when we were guilty of playing cupcakes early , beating the tar out of them, and not being ready for our conference season (or Iowa State for that matter).

 

[herkyattack]

I dont see arizonas defense stopping our O. 38-21 Iowa.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Does the football fly further at Arizona due to the heat,low humidity and altitude? I hope so, cus our coverage on kickoffs was very shaky,not helped by the low line drive kicks by meyer. He has to make sure if he going to kick those line drives...they have to at least make it deep into the end zone.

I am hoping that both Meyer and donahue can really boom the ball down there and help out our challenged coverage teams. Oh..and it would be nice to see Mossbrucker or Murray make a few fgs,also...altho I do like tds better!

Donahue is definitely a weapon ... however, Iowa's coverage units need to pull up their socks. I understand that White and Tillison were out ... but the back-ups need to prepare like they're starters.

 

[TecmoSuperHawk]

I watched a replay of The Citadel and Arizona and I can say I have no concerns about our offense moving the ball. For the most part, they are undersized up front and I think our O Line has been surging off the ball extremely well in the 1st two games. We will go for over 200 yards running, imo. The run will open up the pass and we should have some success throwing the ball especially off play action.

Defensively I am concerned a bit about the quick throws and wide sweeps AZ runs. Foles doesn't even hold the ball for 1 second sometimes. They will dink and dunk all night long. Just a couple of times did they throw the ball downfield. Grigsby and Antolin are fast and could give us trouble if they consistently get to the edges cleanly. I think Arizona will have some success moving between the 20s, but I think they will find it tougher to get in the end zone.

In the end I think we have the better defense and that will be the difference. I'll say 27-16 Iowa.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Excellent points as usual Homer! To me THE key point in this game will be our running game and more importantly our time of possession. Obviously, the former takes care of the latter. If we run the ball well and dominate the clock then their offense will not have many chances to score, which, in turn, may cause desperation to set in which equals mistakes. I like our running game versus their interior d-line. We win here, we win the game. They cannot possibly be prepared for the toughness and talent they're going to see playing the absolute cupcakes they've played so far. While we haven't exactly played world beaters we have at least played our most recent game against an opponent from a BCS conference and a nasty rival. They played The Citadel which is barely sports a college football team. Their middle linebacker was under 200 lbs for cripes sake. And not to beat up on Citadel too much, but I don't remember ever seeing them winning a game against a team with a pulse. I remember a few times when we were guilty of playing cupcakes early , beating the tar out of them, and not being ready for our conference season (or Iowa State for that matter).

TMel -

Absolutely. If Iowa can dictate the tempo of the game ... then that would be HUGE for the Hawks. If Iowa can get Arizona down ... then that could force them to get away from dinking and dunking on us. And that would then mean that Foles would try to hold onto the ball longer and/or try to press more than he should ... and then BAM ... the DL either sacks him or we benefit from a turnover.

So yeah ... controlling the clock will be pretty darn important for the Hawks.

 

[IAHawkFan]

Pretty solid analysis homer...

I think the Iowa d-line has an advantage over the Az o-line, so I would think that Az will use quick drops/passes to slow the rush down. Their receivers block pretty well, so I would guess that they will test our LB's with screens/swing passes to get the ball to the outside quickly.

I think the Iowa o-line has an advantage over the Az d-line, especially for the power running game. I would expect to see us running the ball inside quite a bit. The Az secondary looks really good and will probably make it tough for DJK/McNutt to get open much (we might use a lot of crossing routes). I do think that we have a real advantage with Reisner/Herrman vs. their LB's.

Our poor coverage on punts/kick-offs the first 2 games worries me. If we don't get that fixed, Az will have the speed to take those to the house. My biggest concern would be having Az get an early lead from poor ST coverage.