Arizona game: Homer's take

H

homerHAWKeye777

Well-Known Member
Without a doubt, the Arizona squad brings a lot to the table this year. I definitely think that Arizona is CAPABLE of winning the game. However, this simply asserts that there exists a chance that UA could win the game. However, there is a distinctive difference between a probability and a particular "real" sample path.

Arizona has put up some immensely impressive statistics. They are pretty much top five in the nation in both total D and scoring D. And they're in the top 12 in both total O and scoring O. Even when you're playing cream-puffs ... those numbers are still impressive.

If you look at UA's personnel on D, here are some observations:
- two great DEs and an exceptionally impressive FR DT (Washington)
- a great CB in Wade and a pretty darn solid safety in Perkins
- great overall speed on D
- While certainly talented, the D is both still pretty young and pretty untested

And a similar look at the O ....
- Criner, Douglas, and Roberts are rock solid at WR. Criner is a TD threat every time he touches the ball.
- Foles is an excellent precision passer. He really helps make this Wildcat O "tick."
- Simmons is a pretty darn solid TE
- Grigsby and Antolin are cat-quick, while Nwoko is a talented "bruiser" at RB. Overall, pretty impressive depth at RB. However, given the injuries they've had at RB, they've needed all that depth.
- If Dotsy is fully healthy, then the UA OL is decently experienced across the board ... although it is worth noting that 3 of the 5 starters have less than a season of starts under their belts (each). Grant and Baxter are the "real" headliners for the group ... however, that is also because they're veteran multi-year starters.

Remarks about match-ups:

- I've heard UA fans talk up their OL as being experienced and uber-talented. While I don't doubt that the group is capable of being good ... there's still the issue that the Iowa DL is simply uber-talented and experienced. That's not just hot-air emanating from Iowa fans either ... both opposing players and pundits make the same claims. The point here being that if the Iowa DL comes out hungry and focussed ... they will likely own the match-up advantage in the trenches.

- Fortunately for Iowa fans, Prater is back from injury. The immediate implication is that Iowa's secondary is not only composed of ball-hawking safeties ... but also comprised of a deep and high-quality group of CBs. Arizona's WRs are certainly capable of winning a few battles against this group ... however, the Iowa DBs will likely win their fair share too. Arizona fans won't necessarily be used to this ... but Iowa has a back-7 that can match up with their pass-catchers. I see this match-up as being a PUSH (and I'm attempting to be objective in this assessment).

- Arizona's RBs are quick, tough, and talented. The problem is that Iowa's front 4 are capable of allowing Iowa's LBs run free and flow to the ball. That will then make it pretty difficult for ANYBODY to run on Iowa this year. Also, Iowa's LBs are very athletic and have been in the system of A LONG time. Most importantly, I've been pretty pleased with how Iowa has been tackling given how early it is in the season. It should be noted that I'm very curious about the change-of-pace that Nwoko offers UA's rushing attack. However, in the end, I still believe that Iowa's front-7 own a significant advantage here.

- While UA's DEs have pretty nice size ... they're not "bull-dozers" like Iowa's Clayborn or Ballard. While the UA DEs don't lack power ... they are still built a bit more for "speed" ... and, in that regard, I'm EXCEPTIONALLY STOKED to say that Iowa has some extremely athletic OTs who are very capable of diffusing the rushing threat posed by speed-rushers. In fact, Reiff is even capable of pwning power rushers too (I'm not as certain about Zus in that regard). I'm not saying that UA's talented DEs won't win a few battles against Iowa's OTs ... however, I'd be really shocked if they were able to help UA "win the war" in the trenches.

- UA's D is still mostly built for speed and they're not swimming with experience at DT. In fact, they're starting a FR at DT, albeit a very talented one. When you combine the inexperience at DT with the inexperience at LB ... the net result is a D that should be susceptible to Iowa's power running game.

- UA's secondary was exceptionally aggressive in 2009 and I expect more of the same in 2010. It was very hard for Iowa's WRs to get a whole lot of daylight last year ... and I don't expect things to be a whole lot easier this year. I expect the UA secondary to be very talented and more than capable of matching up against Iowa's passing game. The CAVEAT to this match-up is that UA simply doesn't match up that well against Iowa's 2-TE looks. I simply don't see UA being able to defend the run against Iowa without putting at least ONE DB on an island. While DBs relish that challenge ... Iowa's WRs are veteran and talented ... and Stanzi is a talented veteran SR who is capable of throwing a VERY NICE long ball.

- While UA is invariably expecting a VERY physical game from the Hawkeyes. I'm not certain that they're capable of engaging in such a battle and winning the match-up battles. I simply don't think that UA's early schedule has done much to help prepare them for it.

- One strikingly big advantage that does favor UA is the home field advantage. Between the quality of UA fans and Stoops's ability to rally the troops at home ... they simply do not get trounced at home. Thus, Iowa fans should expect nothing less than a close, hard-fought game.

- An intangible that won't hurt Iowa's chances is that Iowa should be well represented in the stands at the game. With probably over 10k Iowa fans in the stands (hopefully more) ... the Hawks will have a decent contingent cheering for them. Thus, the environment may not be quite as hostile as it usually is. Unlike the Oregon's and USC's of the world ... Iowa fans travel in droves and a ton already live in Arizona.
 
Excellent points. I am curious to see how long they try to stick with the run. I think the d-line has recommitted itself to stopping the run this season. This is a similar offense to ISU's without the running threat that Arnaud posed when Foles is at QB. I am curious if Scott will come in on short yardage situations. Also it is great to have a rotation along the defensive line. Daniels is playing outstanding.
 
I am in the minority, but I actually like that this is a night game. Iowa played very well last year in important night games away from Kinnick (Penn St, Mich St, OSU, GA Tech), but they tended to come out a little flat in early games.

I feel like Iowa is going to be extremely amped up for this game and extremely keyed in.

Well, at least I will be. I'll be at the game and I am so looking forward to this game.
 
--Fast DE's are neutralized by straight ahead power rushing attack

--Don't forget about our special teams. DJK consistently puts us in good places on kickoffs. Donahue will be a major asset when we can flip the field by getting one first down. One question mark here is the punt and kickoff coverage.

Homer, do you know much about UA return game?
 
With small and fast D-ends like Zona has, hopefully Iowa will come out and punch them straight in the mouth with runs between the tackles. You have to think that Zona's main concern is stopping the run. How much of an advantage does this give us, given that we have so much depth at WR? Does O'Keefe surprise the AZ defense with a lot of shotgun and 3/4 WR looks?
 
spudhawk said:
Excellent points. I am curious to see how long they try to stick with the run. I think the d-line has recommitted itself to stopping the run this season. This is a similar offense to ISU's without the running threat that Arnaud posed when Foles is at QB. I am curious if Scott will come in on short yardage situations. Also it is great to have a rotation along the defensive line. Daniels is playing outstanding.
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Good points. However, I would much, much rather face Arnaud than Foles. Foles is a vastly superior QB.
 
good breakdown homer. always enjoy reading what you have to say.

that said..

34-14(or 21) IOWA. 34-14 late in the game and arizona scores a late touchdown to look a bit more respectable.

i don't see arizona having that much depth on the defensive side of the ball and i see us pounding them into submission. arob and jewell will have some fun saturday night which will open up the door for slingin dick to throw the ball deep.

i said 41-6 for the iowa state game and we all saw how close i was to getting that one correct. i'm not really sure what all the major concern is for this game. i see us pretty much rolling in and taking care of business without too much trouble
 
Good stuff, Homer. Thanks.

I wonder, with them having such an accurate QB, if we'll see more of the old "bend but don't break" defense of our past. I know we still do that, but it's just not as pronounced as before when we had Jovon and Antwan.
 
It's all about the heat and fatigue. What kind of shape are our guys in.

My concern comes from two things in last week's game. Stanzi was sharp...until his last series. Watch the replay. All three of his passes in the last series of downs were poor. A sure sign of fatigue. (think of a pitcher losing his "stuff" in the 7th inning)

And in more than one game analysis (and coach's comment) I saw it noted that the offensive line played well. Until they began to tire in the second half.

Arizona will be more physical than ISU and it's going to be hotter. This is a game where we need to get out in front early and hope our conditioning is solid.
 
hawkdrummer1 said:
It's all about the heat and fatigue. What kind of shape are our guys in.

My concern comes from two things in last week's game. Stanzi was sharp...until his last series. Watch the replay. All three of his passes in the last series of downs were poor. A sure sign of fatigue. (think of a pitcher losing his "stuff" in the 7th inning)

And in more than one game analysis (and coach's comment) I saw it noted that the offensive line played well. Until they began to tire in the second half.

Arizona will be more physical than ISU and it's going to be hotter. This is a game where we need to get out in front early and hope our conditioning is solid.
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I don't think Stanzi being off on that last series had anything to do with fatigue. What was he tired from? All those handoffs? He just had only thrown a handful of passes in the last hour and a half, he was just a little out of rythem. He was 8/10 at the end of the first and only threw 8 more passes the rest of the game. If he's throwing more, he'll be fine, and if he's not throwing more, well that will be fine too because it will mean we're running the ball right down their throats all game.
 
HawkeyeMike23 said:
I don't think Stanzi being off on that last series had anything to do with fatigue. What was he tired from? All those handoffs? He just had only thrown a handful of passes in the last hour and a half, he was just a little out of rythem. He was 8/10 at the end of the first and only threw 8 more passes the rest of the game. If he's throwing more, he'll be fine, and if he's not throwing more, well that will be fine too because it will mean we're running the ball right down their throats all game.
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I hope you're right Mike. Last year, he played his best ball late in games. I just noticed that he wasn't nearly as crisp and accurate on that last series.
 
homerHAWKeye777 said:
While UA is invariably expecting a VERY physical game from the Hawkeyes. I'm not certain that they're capable of engaging in such a battle and winning the match-up battles. I simply don't think that UA's early schedule has done much to help prepare them for it.
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I agree with your assessment but for the most part, I think it comes down to guts & conditioning. We fought through a lot of hard a$$ battles last year & I guarantee that this won't be as hard of a game as OSU was last year. I personally saw a beaten & battered team come off that field & came away from that game knowing that we could play anywhere against anyone, against any obstacle. This game will be the same & while I hope it doesn't come down to it, I think the difference will be conditioning. Doyle will win this game for us. BREAK THE ROCK!
 
This game will come down to Stanzi making good decisions as I feel the Zone D will be forced to put 8 or even 9 guys in the box by the 2nd quarter as our running game will be in full force by then. Just like last game expect a ton of play action and big pass plays. Reisner should have a huge game.

And our D will be great as usual, it is great every game of every year.
 
HawkeyeMike23 said:
I don't think Stanzi being off on that last series had anything to do with fatigue. What was he tired from? All those handoffs? He just had only thrown a handful of passes in the last hour and a half, he was just a little out of rythem. He was 8/10 at the end of the first and only threw 8 more passes the rest of the game. If he's throwing more, he'll be fine, and if he's not throwing more, well that will be fine too because it will mean we're running the ball right down their throats all game.
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Yeah, I think that key there was simply that he had gotten out of rhythm. We were really working our running game a lot more there to help bring along Hampton.
 
Az will run blitz and pass blitz hoping to put us into long yardage and predictable situations. I think picking up the blitz is one key therefore.

Also Az uses 3 step drop quick passes hoping for missed tackles or blown asignments to get big plays. One misconception is that Iowa has not covered the middle for short passes well. From watching games and replays it is Davis who has problems. Tarp has done very well from what I have seen.

It Tarp goes out for any length of time it looks like Davis is very likely to be tested early and often with short over the middle throws.
 
Reiff admitted that the O-line got a bit winded in those back to back long drives to open the game. Good for conditioning to have those long drives but I still am concerned about wearing down in a long game in a hothouse in AZ.
I hope Gettis and Kopel are back in the rotation,and we play seven o-linemen minimum,and 6-7 defensive linemen,minimum.
This will be a war of attrition,and the Hawks need to play a lot of guys at all positions.
I really think this will be a squeaker...Iowa 24 AZ 23.
 
thawks1 said:
Az will run blitz and pass blitz hoping to put us into long yardage and predictable situations. I think picking up the blitz is one key therefore.

Also Az uses 3 step drop quick passes hoping for missed tackles or blown asignments to get big plays. One misconception is that Iowa has not covered the middle for short passes well. From watching games and replays it is Davis who has problems. Tarp has done very well from what I have seen.

It Tarp goes out for any length of time it looks like Davis is very likely to be tested early and often with short over the middle throws.
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I think solid tackling will and dominating time of possesion will really frustrate Arizona. They have lived off of big plays in their first two games. I think we get a lead early as Arizona won't be ready for how physical our run game will be. Also, with their offense sitting on the sidelines for so long they will be fired up and want to strike back right away, not just be patient and dink and dunk their way down field.

Also, from reading their message boards it sounds like their OL has been slightly underwhelming so far. That's not a good thing to hear before going against Iowa. I think we get them down early, force them into sacks and turnovers and win 31-17. Also, I think our defense gets a touchdown in this game.
 
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