I do think that the Wisconsin matchup goes deeper than say, a Minnesota, though.
Alvarez is a proven genius when it comes to football, and he knows how to run a program and develop players. Their recruiting budget is the lowest in the league, and their recruiting classes, while good, are almost always within a spot or two of halfway down the B1G. What that says is that they are good at finding rough talent and making it better. I also think the history is relevant. Whatever it is between the two teams they have figured out our run defense, and we can't adapt to the 3-4. They simply make waaaay more first downs than we do, and that's naturally going to lead to more scoring. It also allows a team to play more conservatively and keep the ball on the ground instead of taking risks in the air or by having to make chunk plays. It's definitely chicken or the egg, but it doesn't matter which one; they are the more fundamentally sound and talented team on paper and in practice and they have been for long enough that it's not a 50/50 toss up anymore.
I do agree that things are different with COVID and that every year is a new one, but with the talent we've lost on defense and having to fight the 3-4 (and failing over the past 7 years, a big enough sample size) it's got us painted in a corner. I loathe Nebraska and I hate Pajama Fleck, but the Wisconsin logo and the Heartland Trophy should be the last thing every Hawkeye player and coach thinks about before bed at night. Forget about Neb/MN, forget about PSU and OSU, and even Michigan. As long as there is an East/West division with Iowa and Wisconsin, that's the barrier that needs to get broken down before even thinking about those other teams.
Consider this...
Below is the SOS and average finishing place for the West teams since the divisions were started. Iowa has had the second easiest schedule over that period of time and Wisconsin has had the second hardest (and just barely second). Looking at the average finish Wisconsin is
clearly the highest performing squad in the West, and you can see they are also by far the most consistent. I like that Iowa is 2nd in the avg finishing place, don't get me wrong, but the gist of this is that Wisconsin rises up to the top despite the much tougher schedules where Iowa tends not to. They have the tougher road and still dominate. 2nd best is good, but in a sport that requires you to win your division to advance, it's horseshoes and hand grenades. Close isn't good enough.
And I understand there are fans ok with perpetual "good enough." This season especially I couldn't care less myself. But if the Hawks want to take the next step people need to worry about the real obstacle in the way and that's Wisconsin. Not Minnesota and not any of the East Teams. Worry about beating OSU and PSU after you've got Wisconsin figured out. Until someone proves that Iowa can at the very least go 50/50 over a time period with the Badgers this monkey's staying on their back.
