It is easy to get down on this upcoming season with the tired leadership on this staff and the MAC level talent on the roster, but as an objective voice who has long been blasting the coaching staff...I can say that there IS room for optimism this season!
Intro - For starters, let's assume next season will be more of the same in Iowa City...a safe bet given that there were no coaching changes and no recruiting gems in the 2015 class. Under the status quo, our baseline is that we were a 7-5 team in spite of having a HORRIBLE quarterback who has since been sacked in favor of a guy 90% of the fan base wanted. Addition to the status quo by subtraction!
Wins/Losses - Last year's 7-5 team underachieved and lost three games by a total of 8 points. Would CJ have given us an extra 3 points per game last year? I would say ABSOLUTELY. Tack on just 3 additional points to three games where CJ rode the bench last year and our team instantly goes 10-2. Think about it...it's not that big of a stretch! We would have beat ISU (no doubt about it, as the offense could not have been worse that game with Jake mustering just 17 points against the worst BCS team in the nation), beat Nebraska (no doubt about it, as Jake single handledly gave the game to them with his goal line turnovers), and beat Wisconsin (we lost by just two measly points). Think about it, 10-2 with CJ at QB despite the lack of talent on the roster.
OL - We lost some studs at OL, but have Blythe coming back who will be preseason 1st team all Big 10. So what do we lose by losing our tackles? Is our running game going to get worse? Impossible. running game was already pathetic, and yards per rush were near the bottom of the Big 10. Will our QB have happy feet and check down every play rather than going deep? Nope, that is what last year's qb did. So the drop off in OL talent won't really affect us, as we did not exploit our strengths at the OL last year anyway...due to poor coaching by Brian Ferentz. Besides, from the sounds of it, our new walkon tackles are giants and will get the hang of it. By next year, they will be beasts.
WR - At the WR, we lose the recipient of checkdown charlie's 3 yard throws, Martin Manly. While Martin Manly had great stats, I don't think any team in the conference respected him, as he would have been 5th string everywhere else in the Big Ten (which is why no one else offered him a scholarship in the first place). I think with a new QB at the helm who is not nervous about getting benched after every incompletion in favor of Jake, our WRs will be improved over last year. Certainly the yards per pass will increase.
RB - Addition by subtraction! We lose Weisman, who ate up the majority of carries...and his backup, who accounted for the lowest yards per carry of any significant RB in the past 5 years. We replace those MAC caliber RBs with Daniels, Canzeri, and Wadley, who have each shown flashes in limited playing time (Canzeri and Wadley had more 100 yard games last year that Weisman even though they rarely played). These guys will not be losing carries to slow guys with no vision this year. As a result, I think it is a lock that our yards per carry will be improved this year despite losing an outland trophy winner. Personally, I'd love to see Wadley get a real shot. The guy gets more yards per carry than anyone we've had in years.
Defense - Say what you will about weak hawkeye recruiting, but our linebackers DO get better as they go through the system each and every year. Morris was a TERRIBLE LB as a frosh and soph, and became a stud by his senior year. Angerer was not a D1 player early on. Edds was a tight end. The guys we have (walkons) were terrible and should not have been playing last year, but no depth forced the staff's hand. They will be better this year (they are bigger and stronger) and may be Big 10 caliber players by next year.
We also have a lock down corner for a change, which is a luxury a slow, nonathletic school like Iowa rarely has. We got some depth up front, including probably our best DL from last year. Overall the D will be better than last year.
Conclusion - Given that: (i) we should be better at virtually every position (with the exception of OL, but those guys underperformed fiercely under Brian Ferentz's leadership); and (ii) last year's team likely would have been a 10-2 team with proper personnel decisions, a not so extreme optimist could theoretically view next year's team as having a chance at a Big 10 west title, thanks to Charmin soft schedule, more solid QB play, and the use of D1 running backs. The only question is, will the play calling and schemes allow it?
Intro - For starters, let's assume next season will be more of the same in Iowa City...a safe bet given that there were no coaching changes and no recruiting gems in the 2015 class. Under the status quo, our baseline is that we were a 7-5 team in spite of having a HORRIBLE quarterback who has since been sacked in favor of a guy 90% of the fan base wanted. Addition to the status quo by subtraction!
Wins/Losses - Last year's 7-5 team underachieved and lost three games by a total of 8 points. Would CJ have given us an extra 3 points per game last year? I would say ABSOLUTELY. Tack on just 3 additional points to three games where CJ rode the bench last year and our team instantly goes 10-2. Think about it...it's not that big of a stretch! We would have beat ISU (no doubt about it, as the offense could not have been worse that game with Jake mustering just 17 points against the worst BCS team in the nation), beat Nebraska (no doubt about it, as Jake single handledly gave the game to them with his goal line turnovers), and beat Wisconsin (we lost by just two measly points). Think about it, 10-2 with CJ at QB despite the lack of talent on the roster.
OL - We lost some studs at OL, but have Blythe coming back who will be preseason 1st team all Big 10. So what do we lose by losing our tackles? Is our running game going to get worse? Impossible. running game was already pathetic, and yards per rush were near the bottom of the Big 10. Will our QB have happy feet and check down every play rather than going deep? Nope, that is what last year's qb did. So the drop off in OL talent won't really affect us, as we did not exploit our strengths at the OL last year anyway...due to poor coaching by Brian Ferentz. Besides, from the sounds of it, our new walkon tackles are giants and will get the hang of it. By next year, they will be beasts.
WR - At the WR, we lose the recipient of checkdown charlie's 3 yard throws, Martin Manly. While Martin Manly had great stats, I don't think any team in the conference respected him, as he would have been 5th string everywhere else in the Big Ten (which is why no one else offered him a scholarship in the first place). I think with a new QB at the helm who is not nervous about getting benched after every incompletion in favor of Jake, our WRs will be improved over last year. Certainly the yards per pass will increase.
RB - Addition by subtraction! We lose Weisman, who ate up the majority of carries...and his backup, who accounted for the lowest yards per carry of any significant RB in the past 5 years. We replace those MAC caliber RBs with Daniels, Canzeri, and Wadley, who have each shown flashes in limited playing time (Canzeri and Wadley had more 100 yard games last year that Weisman even though they rarely played). These guys will not be losing carries to slow guys with no vision this year. As a result, I think it is a lock that our yards per carry will be improved this year despite losing an outland trophy winner. Personally, I'd love to see Wadley get a real shot. The guy gets more yards per carry than anyone we've had in years.
Defense - Say what you will about weak hawkeye recruiting, but our linebackers DO get better as they go through the system each and every year. Morris was a TERRIBLE LB as a frosh and soph, and became a stud by his senior year. Angerer was not a D1 player early on. Edds was a tight end. The guys we have (walkons) were terrible and should not have been playing last year, but no depth forced the staff's hand. They will be better this year (they are bigger and stronger) and may be Big 10 caliber players by next year.
We also have a lock down corner for a change, which is a luxury a slow, nonathletic school like Iowa rarely has. We got some depth up front, including probably our best DL from last year. Overall the D will be better than last year.
Conclusion - Given that: (i) we should be better at virtually every position (with the exception of OL, but those guys underperformed fiercely under Brian Ferentz's leadership); and (ii) last year's team likely would have been a 10-2 team with proper personnel decisions, a not so extreme optimist could theoretically view next year's team as having a chance at a Big 10 west title, thanks to Charmin soft schedule, more solid QB play, and the use of D1 running backs. The only question is, will the play calling and schemes allow it?
which I guess makes me not optimistic. NVM