All 8 BTT Seed Scenarios

[WindsorHawk]

How does MSU - PUR - OSU = 4??
and IN - PUR - OSU = 3??

In the 1st scenario it's a 4 way tie at 12-6. MSU gets the 3 seed based on round robin. Iowa and Purdue are tied in the round robin so Iowa gets the 4 seed because they beat Maryland and Purdue lost to Maryland.

Michigan State drops out of the 12-6 tie. See Iowa, Purdue and Maryland scenario above. Iowa again gets the tiebreaker over Purdue.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I am going to assume Iowa beats NW. This leaves exactly 8 possible BTT seed scenarios for Iowa. All 8 are listed below including our seed as a result of each scenario. I have listed the winner of each game.

IN - IL - OSU = 3

IN - IL - WI = 3

IN - PUR - OSU = 3

IN - PUR - WI = 4

MSU - IL - OSU = 4

MSU - IL - WI = 4

MSU - PUR - OSU = 4

MSU - PUR - WI = 5

So there are 4 scenarios where Iowa is the 4 seed. There are 3 scenarios where Iowa is the 3 seed. There is only 1 scenario where Iowa is the 5 seed. If Iowa and Indiana win at 11:00 tomorrow we are guaranteed the double bye.

I ran all of these through the Big 10 Tournament Generator. They are correct.

 

[thejumper5]

Based on the chart below, Jeff Sagarin's predictor rankings, and a conversion chart from BettingTalk.com, I've come up with the following odds for Iowa's BTT seed:
3--19.52%
4--52.08%
5--22.26%
6--6.14%

 

[Cran]

In the 1st scenario it's a 4 way tie at 12-6. MSU gets the 3 seed based on round robin. Iowa and Purdue are tied in the round robin so Iowa gets the 4 seed because they beat Maryland and Purdue lost to Maryland.

Michigan State drops out of the 12-6 tie. See Iowa, Purdue and Maryland scenario above. Iowa again gets the tiebreaker over Purdue.

I was thinking that 0-1 was better than 0-2 (vs Wisconsin) looks like that is not true though.

 

[PCHawk]

Based on the chart below, Jeff Sagarin's predictor rankings, and a conversion chart from BettingTalk.com, I've come up with the following odds for Iowa's BTT seed:
3--19.52%
4--52.08%
5--22.26%
6--6.14%

Good work! My "fuzzy math" was off by 13%

 

[PCHawk]

It's cool that our odds of getting a 3 seed are almost the same as our odds of getting a 5. If OSU was playing any team other than Wisconsin Sunday, our odds would be way better to get a bye.

 

[DJL]

Good work! My "fuzzy math" was off by 13%

I'm sure you meant to put + or - 13% in parenthesis.

 

[deanvogs]

Based on the chart below, Jeff Sagarin's predictor rankings, and a conversion chart from BettingTalk.com, I've come up with the following odds for Iowa's BTT seed:
3--19.52%
4--52.08%
5--22.26%
6--6.14%

A 72% chance of getting a #3 or #4 seed, I likey!!!

 

[tksirius]

Remember when HN had the gambling thing going on? I recall Jumper having a ton of Miller $$ then.