All 8 BTT Seed Scenarios

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WindsorHawk

Well-Known Member
I am going to assume Iowa beats NW. This leaves exactly 8 possible BTT seed scenarios for Iowa. All 8 are listed below including our seed as a result of each scenario. I have listed the winner of each game.

IN - IL - OSU = 3

IN - IL - WI = 3

IN - PUR - OSU = 3

IN - PUR - WI = 4

MSU - IL - OSU = 4

MSU - IL - WI = 4

MSU - PUR - OSU = 4

MSU - PUR - WI = 5

So there are 4 scenarios where Iowa is the 4 seed. There are 3 scenarios where Iowa is the 3 seed. There is only 1 scenario where Iowa is the 5 seed. If Iowa and Indiana win at 11:00 tomorrow we are guaranteed the double bye.
 
It is also possible to get the 4 seed even if Iowa somehow loses to NW. The IN vs. MSU game becomes meaningless. Illinois and Wisconsin both have to win. If both Illinois and Wisconsin win Iowa is the 4 seed and gets the double bye.
 
WindsorHawk said:
It is also possible to get the 4 seed even if Iowa somehow loses to NW. The IN vs. MSU game becomes meaningless. Illinois and Wisconsin both have to win. If both Illinois and Wisconsin win Iowa is the 4 seed and gets the double bye.
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Good breakdown. People think that 5 seed is the most likely scenario but your post shows that that's not the case.
 
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Does anyone have the odds for each of the games Saturday and Sunday? I would guess that Purdue, Michigan State, and Wisconsin all have to be favored. That would decrease our chance of a double bye a little bit. I still however thinks one of the teams we need to lose will lose.
 
DJL said:
Does anyone have the odds for each of the games Saturday and Sunday? I would guess that Purdue, Michigan State, and Wisconsin all have to be favored. That would decrease our chance of a double bye a little bit. I still however thinks one of the teams we need to lose will lose.
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I would guess MSU is 55-45, Purdue is 55-45, and OSU is 35-65ish. The chances of all 3 teams that we don't want to win winning would probably be around 35-40%. Which means our chances of getting a double bye are around 60-65%. All just meaningless guesses on my part.
 
I think all 3 of those games could go either way. So I'm going to forget point spreads and go with straight up percentages. There are 8 scenarios. We get a double bye with 7 of those scenarios. So that's an 87.5% chance of a double bye. Looking at it this way makes me feel better.
 
PCHawk said:
I would guess MSU is 55-45, Purdue is 55-45, and OSU is 35-65ish. The chances of all 3 teams that we don't want to win winning would probably be around 35-40%. Which means our chances of getting a double bye are around 60-65%. All just meaningless guesses on my part.
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"fuzzy math" I like it.
 
Again, as long as Indiana can protect home court, on senior day, Hawks get the double-bye.

I'd prefer for Illannoy to also upset Purdue, as that would guarantee Hawks at #3 and give me my #1 revenge game against Purdue (#6). However, at Purdue is not very likely.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
Again, as long as Indiana can protect home court, on senior day, Hawks get the double-bye.

I'd prefer for Illannoy to also upset Purdue, as that would guarantee Hawks at #3 and give me my #1 revenge game against Purdue (#6). However, at Purdue is not very likely.
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I don't know. Illinois needs a win and they live and die by the 3. Purdue relies primarily on the inside game. Illinois won at Michigan State so it could happen. And Rayvonte Rice is all the way back from his injury and playing outstanding basketball.
 
PCHawk said:
Good breakdown. People think that 5 seed is the most likely scenario but your post shows that that's not the case.
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While most scenarios result in Iowa getting the double-bye, I'd argue the most likely is they end up at the 5 because it's most likely that all of MSU (better than Indy; Indy is tumbling while MSU is rounding into form) Purdue (home, senior day, better than Illannoy) and Wiscy (better than OSU and playing for a 1 seed in NCAA) will win.

Your odds estimates imply this as well, PC.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
Again, as long as Indiana can protect home court, on senior day, Hawks get the double-bye.

I'd prefer for Illannoy to also upset Purdue, as that would guarantee Hawks at #3 and give me my #1 revenge game against Purdue (#6). However, at Purdue is not very likely.
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That game is going to be a dog fight just like our game was against Illinois. The main difference is i think we are better than Purdue and Rice will have more games under his belt. I think there is a pretty good chance you get your wish.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
While most scenarios result in Iowa getting the double-bye, I'd argue the most likely is they end up at the 5 because it's most likely that all of MSU (better than Indy; Indy is tumbling while MSU is rounding into form) Purdue (home, senior day, better than Illannoy) and Wiscy (better than OSU and playing for a 1 seed in NCAA) will win.

Your odds estimates imply this as well, PC.
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The odds of those 3 teams winning are better than the odds of any other single scenario happening. But the odds of those 3 teams winning aren't better than all 7 other scenarios added together.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
Again, as long as Indiana can protect home court, on senior day, Hawks get the double-bye.

I'd prefer for Illannoy to also upset Purdue, as that would guarantee Hawks at #3 and give me my #1 revenge game against Purdue (#6). However, at Purdue is not very likely.
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If Indiana loses and Illinois wins Illinois finishes alone in 7th at 10-8. They sweep Purdue. They also have a road win at Michigan State, a home win over Maryland and a neutral court win over Baylor. Their current RPI is 58 and Indiana's is 53. Purdue's RPI is 61. So it's an RPI bump. My point is Illinois already beat Purdue by 9 and if they do it again they are probably in the NCAA Tournament.
 
Think of it this way. If you have pocket aces in texas holdem, you are the favorite against any 1 hand. If you are against 4 other people, you are actually the underdog. You could put your hand against any of the other 4 hands one on one and be the favorite. But when you go against the other 3 all at once, the odds are less than 50/50 that you will win.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
...while MSU is rounding into form...
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Trice scored a career high on Senior Night to get a 6 point home win over Purdue. They lost their 2 previous games including a home loss to Minnesota.

I'm not trying to pick a fight. I'm saying Michigan State isn't playing all that much better than Indiana. And Indiana like Illinois is on life support. It's Senior Day and they have to have this win.

I read somewhere that Michigan State is a 1 point favorite.
 
A better example would be if you had jack 10 suited against a small pocket pair. You are the favorite to be leading after the flop, after the turn, and after the river. But preflop since you have to avoid all 3 (even though you are a favorite for all 3 individually) you are an underdog.
 
WindsorHawk said:
I am going to assume Iowa beats NW. This leaves exactly 8 possible BTT seed scenarios for Iowa. All 8 are listed below including our seed as a result of each scenario. I have listed the winner of each game.

IN - IL - OSU = 3

IN - IL - WI = 3

IN - PUR - OSU = 3

IN - PUR - WI = 4

MSU - IL - OSU = 4

MSU - IL - WI = 4

MSU - PUR - OSU = 4

MSU - PUR - WI = 5

So there are 4 scenarios where Iowa is the 4 seed. There are 3 scenarios where Iowa is the 3 seed. There is only 1 scenario where Iowa is the 5 seed. If Iowa and Indiana win at 11:00 tomorrow we are guaranteed the double bye.
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How does MSU - PUR - OSU = 4??
and IN - PUR - OSU = 3??
 
PCHawk said:
Think of it this way. If you have pocket aces in texas holdem, you are the favorite against any 1 hand. If you are against 4 other people, you are actually the underdog. You could put your hand against any of the other 4 hands one on one and be the favorite. But when you go against the other 3 all at once, the odds are less than 50/50 that you will win.
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Yep. The aces are favored heads up or against 2 other hands...underdog against 3 or more hands.
 
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