If you're calculating scenarios for the Rose Bowl, you're asking yourself which game is it OK for Iowa to lose? While I love the Rose Bowl as much as anyone, the prize is bigger this year. Those alternate projections are meaningless this year.
Don't want to lose any but if it has to be, to MSU in the title bout.
We lock Rose with a win on Fri and assuming we play MSU. They are not gonna take a pouty OSU who doesn't want to be there, nor a two loss MI.
BTW, I still don't think a loss to Iowa would put us dead in the water for the CFP. It would put us in discussion with, Notre Dame, the 12 Pac Champ for a slot.